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NASA Strategic Framework for On-Demand Air Mobility

NASA Strategic Framework for On-Demand Air Mobility A Report for NASA Headquarters Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate By AirMarkets Corporation Bruce J. Holmes, Roger A. Parker, PhD. National Institute of Aerospace Douglas Stanley, PhD. Mr. Peter McHugh Atlanta Analytics Laurie Garrow, PhD. STARNet, LLC. Mr. Paul M. Masson General Aero Company Mr. John (Jack) Olcott January 26, 2017. NASA Contract No: NNL13AA08B. National Institute of Aerospace Task Order: NNL16AA90T. Title: NASA Strategic Framework for On-Demand Mobility 1. NASA Strategic Framework for On-Demand Air Mobility This Page Intentionally Left Blank 2. Table of Contents Executive Summary .. v Chapter 1 Introduction and Strategic 1. Prelude ..1. 1. Introduction ..1. NASA and Industry Perspectives .. 1. Universal Challenges .. 4. You Can't Get There from Here .. 5. Easy Access to Multiple Markets the Power of Social Networking Personified .. 6. Dude, Where's My Flying Car?

NASA Strategic Framework for On-Demand Air Mobility v Executive Summary The Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD), NASA Headquarters, requested an

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Transcription of NASA Strategic Framework for On-Demand Air Mobility

1 NASA Strategic Framework for On-Demand Air Mobility A Report for NASA Headquarters Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate By AirMarkets Corporation Bruce J. Holmes, Roger A. Parker, PhD. National Institute of Aerospace Douglas Stanley, PhD. Mr. Peter McHugh Atlanta Analytics Laurie Garrow, PhD. STARNet, LLC. Mr. Paul M. Masson General Aero Company Mr. John (Jack) Olcott January 26, 2017. NASA Contract No: NNL13AA08B. National Institute of Aerospace Task Order: NNL16AA90T. Title: NASA Strategic Framework for On-Demand Mobility 1. NASA Strategic Framework for On-Demand Air Mobility This Page Intentionally Left Blank 2. Table of Contents Executive Summary .. v Chapter 1 Introduction and Strategic 1. Prelude ..1. 1. Introduction ..1. NASA and Industry Perspectives .. 1. Universal Challenges .. 4. You Can't Get There from Here .. 5. Easy Access to Multiple Markets the Power of Social Networking Personified .. 6. Dude, Where's My Flying Car?

2 6. Aviation and Degrees C .. 7. External Strategic Context .. 7. Participants and Contributors .. 9. International Initiatives .. 9. 2. Summary .. 10. 3. Findings and Recommendations .. 11. Chapter 2 ODM Market demand .. 13. 1. Introduction and 13. 2. Literature Review .. 14. 3. The Quantitative Estimation of Air Travel demand .. 20. 4. The Definition of ODM and Thin-haul 24. 5. Estimates of demand for ODM Service .. 27. 6. Estimated of demand for Thin-haul Scheduled Service .. 33. 7. Potential for Using New Data Sources to Model Air Travel 37. 8. Forecast Results .. 38. Autonomous CTOL Air Taxi ODM .. 38. Autonomous Thin-Haul ODM 39. 9. Summary of Findings and Recommendations .. 39. 10. 40. Chapter 3 ODM Enabling Technologies and Gaps Analysis .. 45. Prelude .. 45. 1. Introduction .. 45. 2. Technology Assessment Process .. 46. 3. NASA ODM Roadmap Development Summary and Analysis .. 46. 4. ODM Technology Roadmap Assessment.

3 51. 5. Priorities, Gaps and Recommendations .. 51. Gaps .. 52. Proposed NASA ODM Technology Development Approach .. 53. Strategic Implementation of ODM .. 54. 6. Summary of Findings and Recommendations .. 55. Chapter 4 Organizational Contributions and Roles .. 57. Prelude .. 57. i NASA Strategic Framework for On-Demand Air Mobility 1. Introduction .. 57. Existing Stakeholders, Collaborators and Contributors .. 58. Industry Organizations .. 58. Trade Associations, Professional Societies, and NGOs .. 59. Governmental Organizations ( ) .. 60. Governmental Organizations (International) .. 60. Academic and FFRDC Organizations (including Federally Funded Research and Development Centers) .. 60. 2. Potential International Collaborators .. 61. 3. Organizational Issues .. 61. 4. Options for Leveraging Organizational Cooperation .. 62. 5. Summary of Findings and Recommendations .. 63. Chapter 5 Public/Private Collaboration Options & Resource Alignment.

4 65. Prelude .. 65. 1. Introduction and Background .. 66. Collaboration Options and the Role of Objectives and Requirements .. 66. 2. Four Collaboration Options .. 67. 3. Criteria for Selecting an Option .. 68. Stakeholders .. 70. Executive-Level Commitment .. 72. 4. Technology Alignment .. 73. 5. Resource Alignment .. 74. 6. Assessing Partnership Options Against Criteria .. 76. 7. Findings and Recommendations .. 82. Chapter 6 National Policy and Regulatory Considerations for Enabling ODM .. 83. Prelude .. 83. 1. Introduction .. 83. 2. Growth Despite the Absence of Policy .. 84. 3. Tragedy Preempts Policy .. 87. 4. Additional 88. 5. Policy is Needed Now .. 88. 6. Vision Aligns Constituencies .. 89. 7. ODM Involves Many Constituents .. 89. 8. Operator and Stakeholder Interviews and Regulatory Considerations .. 91. Response .. 91. 9. Regulatory Restraints vs. Regulatory Enablers .. 92. 10. Policy Must Reflect Vision and Facilitate Progress.

5 93. 11. Establishing New Processes .. 93. Relevant Regulations Needed .. 93. 12. Seeking Consensus .. 95. 13. Essential Areas for ODM Development and Operation .. 95. 14. Summary .. 96. 15. Findings and Recommendations .. 97. Chapter 7 Stakeholder Outreach Planning .. 99. 1. Introduction .. 99. 2. Stakeholder and Participant Outreach Workshops 99. ii NASA Strategic Framework for On-Demand Air Mobility 3. Outreach Planning Schedule and Resource Requirements .. 100. 4. Venues .. 100. 5. Summary .. 101. 6. Findings and Recommendations .. 101. Appendix 1: Literature Review Annotated Bibliography .. 103. Appendix 2: The Models Used by the AirMarkets Simulation .. 104. The Trip Generation Model (TGM):.. 104. Trip Distribution Model (TDM): .. 105. The Discrete Choice Model of Travel 108. The Probability of demand in a Given Time Period .. 111. Appendix 3: The AirMarkets Simulator .. 114. Appendix 4: The Price Curve for Air Travel .. 117.

6 Iii NASA Strategic Framework for On-Demand Air Mobility This Page Intentionally Left Blank iv NASA Strategic Framework for On-Demand Air Mobility Executive Summary The Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD), NASA Headquarters, requested an analysis of the Strategic Framework and public value proposition for On-Demand Mobility (ODM). vision and concepts, to support decisions on research and technology development investments by the agency. This report responds to that request, and provides a high-level view from a team of subject matter experts experienced in all aspects of aviation innovation: aircraft, airspace, airports, operations, policy, regulation, technology, strategy, partnerships, and finance. The Strategic Framework team reached the following distilled conclusions and related high-level recommendations: The vision for ODM of enabling the ability for anyone to fly from here to there, anytime, anywhere creates a compelling public value proposition that could result from a Federal R&D investment that would be vastly leveraged by the private sector.

7 An ODM vision requires a national policy, informed by a technology strategy, to align the regulatory, partnership, and investment elements necessary to initiate new and accelerate current activities to keep pace with both national needs and advancing technologies. The convergence of technologies from outside and from within the aviation sector create new paths to solving long-standing challenges in aviation safety, efficiency, performance, and affordability through ODM. NASA investments in ODM research and technology development would provide the means of delivering air Mobility products and services that would support a uniquely significant advancement in American quality of life, economic opportunity, and standard of living. These investments would preserve the Nation's global leadership in aviation and emerging transformations in transportation and distribution systems. NASA should create an ODM-centric project and Strategic thrust that leverages current project investments in airspace, safety, autonomy, and UAS, and manufacturing and materials activities.

8 The current NASA ODM Roadmapping activities, while highly effective in assembling an industrial and academic community of practice with a shared vision, require additional components related to secure cyber-physical aircraft connectivity; comprehensive airspace accessibility and services; and air portal infrastructure systems. Current and proposed ODM technology investments will have significant synergistic benefits to smaller unmanned aerial systems as well as larger general aviation and commercial passenger aircraft. Achieving the ODM vision represents significant cultural changes for America and establishing a sharing of that vision is essential to long-term success. The commercial emergence of the ODM vision represents a significant cultural change in America and its achievement requires a shared vision, which NASA is in a position to facilitate. NASA is in a unique position to play a leadership role in the formation of one or more Innovation-Public-Private Partnerships (I-PPP) to aggregate and leverage the necessary resources from both sectors toward a common public value in future Mobility .

9 The findings and recommendations in this paper serve to propel bold, forward-leaning actions and acceptance of risk that will accelerate and materialize the ODM vision for all stakeholders, investors, beneficiaries and contributors in government and industry. v NASA Strategic Framework for On-Demand Air Mobility This Page Intentionally Left Blank vi NASA Strategic Framework for On-Demand Air Mobility Chapter 1 Introduction and Strategic Context Prelude No flying machine will ever fly from New York to Paris.. Orville Wright About forty miles away from Paris, I began to see the old trench flares they were sending up at Le Bourget. I knew then I had made it, and as I approached the field with all its lights, it was a simple matter to circle once and then pick a spot sufficiently far away from the crowd to land . Charles Lindbergh Our aeronautics heritage is filled with unimaginably intimidating challenges that, once met, raised the expectations of ourselves to ever higher levels.

10 The vision for On-Demand Mobility (ODM), embraced by a large and growing global community of practice, imagines a future for transportation of people and goods, anytime, anywhere, for productivity, or pleasure, with levels of safety and affordability we take for granted in our automobiles today. 1. Introduction NASA and Industry Perspectives The NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) vision for aeronautical research for the next 25 years and beyond encompasses a broad range of technologies to meet future needs of the aviation community, the Nation and the world for safe, productive, efficient, flexible and environmentally sustainable air transportation. NASA's analysis of global trends has led ARMD. to identify the following three Mega-Drivers, shaping the requirements for aeronautical research in the coming years: Mega-Driver 1, Global Growth in demand for High-Speed Mobility : Reflects rapid growth in traditional measures of global demand for Mobility .


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