National Weather Service March 2022 May 2022

1 Seasonal Drought Outlook Drought is expected to persist across much of the western half of Central Region and parts of the Midwest. Meanwhile, northern Minnesota, far northern Wisconsin, & western Upper Michigan are expected to see some improvement in drought : March 2022 continues to look like it will be affected by both La Ni a & the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). For the March temperature and precipitation outlooks, CPC forecasters looked at historical Ni o Indices, equatorial heat content, & MJO composites. These composites were in agreement with dynamical model the La Ni a will weaken during meteorological spring, it will still likely impact the climate , so La Ni a composites and dynamical & statistical tools were The odds have been shifted toward warmer than normal across much of Central Region.

2 The highest probabilities (50-60%) are from southern Missouri northeast into the Lower Great Lakes Wetter than normal conditions are favored from Missouri & Kentucky north into the Great Lakes region. Above-normal precipitation is favored in northwest Wyoming. Below-normal precipitation is favored from Colorado east into the Central 2022 Temperature & Precipitation OutlooksTemperatures The odds have shifted toward warmer than normal across much of Central Region. The highest probabilities are across the southern & eastern portions of the Above-normal precipitation is favored from the Mid-Mississippi River Valley northeast into the southern Great Lakes region. Below-normal precipitation is favored from in Colorado, southern Wyoming east into the Central 2022 through May 2022 Temperature & Precipitation OutlooksLa Ni a still hanging onNational Weather ServiceCentral Region climate OutlookMarch 2022 May 2022 Friday, February 18, 20226:26 AMThree Month Temperature OutlookOne Month Temperature OutlookOne Month Precipitation OutlookThree Month Precipitation OutlookThree Month Temperature OutlookThree Month Precipitation OutlookClick to evaluate this more info, contact.

3 Building a Weather -Ready NationIRI/CPC Probabilistic ENSO Forecast/PlumesNews from ENSO Blogfrom Surface Temperaturesfrom the climate Prediction CenterLatest ENSO Discussionfrom the climate Prediction CenterDrought Informationfrom the US Drought MonitorInteractive GIS Mappingfrom NCEI (Anomalies/Rankings) Local climate Analysis Tool(LCAT) Account registration requiredNWS Forecast Mapsfrom Western RegionUseful Links/Info: National Weather ServiceCentral Region climate OutlookMarch 2022 May 2022 Friday, February 18, 20226:26 AMENSO Status: La Ni a Advisory continues La Ni a is likely to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring (77% chance during March -May 2022) and then transition to ENSO- neutral (56% chance during May-July 2022). La Ni a is anticipated to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States during the upcoming Teleconnection Effects The Madden Julian Oscillation is currently located in Phase 3 (over the Indian Ocean).

4 Dynamical model MJO index forecasts depict a robust MJO event propagating eastward to the Maritime Continent (phases 4 & 5) during the next 2 weeks. This MJO event will likely constructively interfere with the ongoing La Ni a. This means this would amplify the typical La Ni a impacts across the US. Click to evaluate this more info, contact:Building a Weather -Ready NationFMA La Ni a Precipitation AnomaliesSource: climate Prediction CenterAnomalies in millimetersSource Link: When La Ni a and climate trends are combined for the February-April season, they show enhanced wetness from southern Missouri and Arkansas northeast into the southern and eastern Great Lakes. Some dryness is indicated across the Central Plains.