Nepal Education Sector Analysis

1 Nepal Education . Sector Analysis . National Institute for Research and Training (NIRT). &. American Institute of Research (AIR). January 2017. Recommended citation: NIRT (2016). Nepal Education Sector Analysis . Kathmandu, Nepal ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS. This Education Sector Analysis has been an unforeseen lengthy process as the overall Analysis and planning process was disrupted by the devastating 2015 earthquakes in Nepal that undid a significant amount of the progress made within the Education Sector in the affected areas and demanded the Local Education Development Partner Group and the Government in terms of devoting available capacity towards response and recovery. As such, the leadership displayed by the honorable minister of Education and the respected secretary of the Ministry of Education and the Joint secretary of the planning division that balanced the Ministry's capacity between the need for the development of a new Education Sector plan and the needs emerging from the post disaster context and the agitations related to the promulgation of the country's constitution should be acknowledged.

2 Furthermore, UNICEF Nepal should be acknowledged for their support and guidance to the Education Sector Analysis process in the role as focal point of the development partners and managing entity of the Education Sector Program Development Grant (ESPDG), through which the technical assistance and expertise was made available to the Government. During the different phases of the Sector Analysis , the participation of the Education and different central level agencies within the Education Sector , as well as development partners including civil society organization networks and stakeholder representatives led to a broad platform through which pertinent issues and opportunities within the Education Sector were reviewed and analyzed. Finally, specific reference should be made to Dr. Lava Deo Awasthi, Dr. Hari Prasad Lamsal, Dr. Thulashi Thapaliya, Dr. Mukunda Mani Khanal, Mr. Deepak Sharma, mr. Shankar Thapa and Dr. Marilyn Hoar. Through the deployment of the National Institute for Research and Training (NIRT) and its international partner the American Institute for Research (AIR), the overall Sector Analysis outline and structure was developed by Dr.

3 Mohammed Elmeski with the support of Dr. Bhuban Bajracharya and Dr. Vishnu Karki. In addition to this, key contributors to the Analysis were Professor Thirtha Koirala, Professor Mahesh Parajuli, Dr. Susan Acharya and Dr. Laxmi Paudyal, with special acknowledgement for Dr. Niraj Paudyal and Dr. Pramod Bhatta for the undertaking of the additional impact Analysis . Overall editing and alignment was supported by Mr. Amit Aryal, Mr. Jimi Oostrum and copy editing by Mr. Steve Keeling. i EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. A. THE THREE IMPERATIVES OF Education REFORM. The context of Education reform in Nepal is marked by three imperatives: (1) post-conflict and post- disaster reconstruction, (2) the demographic dividend window of opportunity, and (3). Nepal 's ambition to graduate from being a least developed country by 2022. Almost ten years after the end of the decade long armed conflict, Nepal is seeking to strengthen its model of multi-party democracy through a federal system. The preamble of the new 2015 constitution commits to continue the country's efforts in ending discrimination and disparities based on class, caste, religion, language, region, gender, and location.

4 On 25 April 2015, Nepal was hit by its strongest earthquake in 80 years. The death toll reached 9,000. Over 35,000 classrooms were mostly or entirely damaged, leaving more than one million children lacking access to safe permanent places to learn. As the county was mobilizing response to the immediate needs after the earthquakes, it was hit again by a severe fuel and commodity crisis that has significantly undermined post-earthquake reconstruction and is likely to lead to a decline in the country's economic growth rate for the first time since the 1980s. In the wake of these disasters, building schools back better is a humanitarian imperative because the failure to respond is likely to exacerbate the number of children who are out-of- school and as the disaster exposed the vulnerability of the infrastructure where the country trusts its children to be in for most of their youth. From a post-conflict perspective, the urgency of overarching school reform is rooted in the urgent need to socialize a new generation of engaged Nepali citizenry who fully embrace the new constitution ideals of a multi-caste, multi- ethnic, multi-lingual, and multi-cultural society.

5 The second imperative of Education reform in Nepal is the ticking clock of the demographic dividend. 2001 2011 data show a declining trend in the average population growth rate. If the current trends continue, projection models indicate that Nepal , like other South Asian countries, will continue to enjoy increasing demographic surplus characterized by a shrinking dependency rate (higher proportion of working age population, fewer children to feed, and fewer elderly to look after), that is projected to reach its peak in 2025. The implications of this projected demographic dividend are crucial for the country's continuing and sustainable growth, especially considering the importance of foreign remittances to the country's GDP. The urgency of Education reform lies in making drastic improvement in the quality of Education that ensures that the country's labor force can access gainful jobs that allow them career advancement opportunities and concomitant significant savings for their retirements.

6 As of 2011, and unless major changes are effected in formal, informal, and non-formal Education , the state of educational preparedness for Nepali youth does not indicate that they will be positioned to seize the demographic dividend opportunity in 2025. For youth aged 15 24 years, 12 percent have no Education , 10 percent did not complete primary Education , and 41 percent did not complete secondary Education . This represents 63 percent of youth who are highly likely to not have the requisite skills to be engaged in gainful jobs. ii Last, but not least, the third imperative for Education reform lies in Nepal 's aspiration to graduate from the status of an LDC. Nepal 's 14th National Development Plan (2016/17 to 2020/21) has graduating from the LDC category by 2022 as its vision. In this regard, the reform imperative is two-fold: 1. The literacy and secondary school Human Assets Index (HAI) must be, at least, 10 percent above the LDC inclusion threshold. 2. The Education Sector needs to prepare the skilled human resources necessary to achieve its vision of rebuilding a resilient nation, promoting entrepreneurial farmers and productive farms, gender equality with empowered women, building infrastructure and creating jobs, policy reform for growth take-off, connecting communities with markets, and nurturing nature to harness its riches.

7 B. Nepal SITUATIONAL Analysis : DEMOGRAPHIC, ECONOMIC, AND SOCIAL CONTEXT. Nepal 's topography, climate, religion, and population are very diverse. The country consists of three topographic regions: the Terai plains in the south, the middle hills (Mid-hills), and the Himalayan mountains in the north. The country has tropical, sub-tropical, temperate, sub- arctic, and arctic climatic zones. In the early 1990s, Nepal was the only constitutionally declared Hindu state in the world. The 2007 Interim Constitution declared Nepal as a secular state. That said, the country has a majority of people who are Hindus ( percent) followed by Buddhists ( percent). Other religious minorities include Muslims, Kirats, Christians and Jains. The most densely populated parts of the country are the southern Terai districts, the Kathmandu Valley and Kaski district With regards to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), the country has made significant albeit uneven progress. The country has halved the proportion of people whose income is less than a dollar a day.

8 The decline of poverty has been steady between 2004 and 2011 it decreased annually by an average of percent. However, it is necessary to assess the impact of the severe fuel and commodity shortages since September 2015 on poverty and hunger for a more accurate appraisal. Furthermore, the country's progress in achieving universal primary Education is commendable. The net enrolment rate rose from 64 percent in 1990 to percent by 2013. The survival rate increased due to the government's support for early childhood Education and development (ECED) and pre-primary Education (PPE), among other factors. In terms of gender equality and the empowerment of women, the ratio of girls to boys in primary Education (Grades 1 to 5) has improved significantly since the 1990s, so much that the MDG target set for 2015 has already been achieved. There are, however, some lingering disparities by social groups and geographical location. With respect to the empowerment of women, the share of women's wage employment in the non-agricultural Sector has more than doubled.

9 Women's participation in non-traditional sectors such as the armed forces and overseas employment has increased rapidly in recent years. With regards to reducing child mortality, childhood mortality has steadily declined over the past 20 years. In 2001, the infant mortality rate (IMR) declined to 46 and under-five mortality iii rate (U5MR) to 54 per 1,000 live, compared to 162 in 1990. The neo-natal mortality rate is still a challenge as between 2006 and 2011 it remained the same. Although Nepal has achieved both its maternal mortality ratio (MMR) and attended birth goals by 2015, disparities exist between urban and rural settings, across ecological and development regions, and among social and age groups. Nepal has shown improvement in other social development indicators. However, progress remains constrained by the persistent challenge of ensuring that gains benefit the country's disadvantaged groups and geographical areas. In terms of literacy, Muslims, other Terai castes, hill Dalits, Terai Janajatis, and Terai Dalits have literacy index scores well below the national average.

10 The Multi-Dimensional Social Inclusion Index (CDSA 2014). shows hill Brahmans, Madhesi Brahmans/Chhetris, Newars and hill Chhetris scoring high on social, economic and cultural dimensions (OPHI 2015). However, the gender inclusion index is lower than the other social inclusion indices, showing that gender is still a dominant driver of disparities in Nepal . The large remittance incomes represent a critical lifeline that mitigates poverty, promotes investment, and increases demand for Education . That said, the high number of working age population outside the country also has social costs affecting families and communities. C. MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS AND FIDUCIARY ASSESSMENT. Nepal is one of the least developed countries. Its per capita income is US$ 762. Agriculture employs 70 percent of the population but only accounts for 34 percent of GDP. The damage caused by the 2015 May/April earthquakes is reckoned to have reduced the growth of the economy from the expected 6 percent to only 3 percent growth in 2014/15, which was further reduced to percent in 2015/16, with the 5-month severe fuel and commodity shortages caused by constraints on import of goods at Nepal 's Southern border (Paudel 2015).