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Nigeria’s Medium Term National Development Plan (MTNDP ...

Nigeria s Medium Term National Development plan (MTNDP) -2021-2025 OVERVIEW OF THE 2021-2025 MTNDP DRAFT18 MARCH 2021 OutlineMacroeconomic framework Overview of Sector Strategy010203040506 IntroductionStrategic framework Summary of Pending Data Points from MDAsBuild a thriving and sustainable economyEnlarge agriculture output for food securityAttain energy sufficiency in power and petroleum productsExpand transport and other infrastructure developmentPolicy Priorities for the Medium -Term National Development plan , access to quality education, affordable healthcare and productivityEnhance social inclusion and reduce povertyBuild systems to fight corruption, improve governance and create National cohesionImprove security for allExpand business growth, Entrepreneurship and industrialisationPolicy Priorities for the Medium -Term National Development plan 2021-20253 Strategic Framework5 VisionStrategic objectivesCross-cuttingEnablersImpactPro mote Development opportunities across States to minimize regional, economic and social disparitiesEstablish a strong foundation for a diversified economy, with robust MSME growth, and a more.

the development of State Development Plans (SDPs). 2.Established synergy between federal, states and local government institutions and the departments responsible for implementing Development Plan. 3.Robust feedback mechanism to inform improvements to the national development planning process based on State level implementation.

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Transcription of Nigeria’s Medium Term National Development Plan (MTNDP ...

1 Nigeria s Medium Term National Development plan (MTNDP) -2021-2025 OVERVIEW OF THE 2021-2025 MTNDP DRAFT18 MARCH 2021 OutlineMacroeconomic framework Overview of Sector Strategy010203040506 IntroductionStrategic framework Summary of Pending Data Points from MDAsBuild a thriving and sustainable economyEnlarge agriculture output for food securityAttain energy sufficiency in power and petroleum productsExpand transport and other infrastructure developmentPolicy Priorities for the Medium -Term National Development plan , access to quality education, affordable healthcare and productivityEnhance social inclusion and reduce povertyBuild systems to fight corruption, improve governance and create National cohesionImprove security for allExpand business growth, Entrepreneurship and industrialisationPolicy Priorities for the Medium -Term National Development plan 2021-20253 Strategic Framework5 VisionStrategic objectivesCross-cuttingEnablersImpactPro mote Development opportunities across States to minimize regional, economic and social disparitiesEstablish a strong foundation for a diversified economy, with robust MSME growth, and a more-resilient business environmentInvest in critical physical, financial, digital and innovation infrastructureEnable a vibrant, educated and healthy populaceNigeria has catalyzed the potential of the public, private, and social sectors to boost industrialization, and sustainably improve inclusive.

2 Holistic Development and competitivenessNigeria improves economic competitiveness with a GDP growth of , that drives job creation, generates inclusive National growth, and lifts at least 25million Nigerians out of povertyBuild a solid framework and enhance capacities to strengthen security and ensure good governanceInvest in the social infrastructure and services required to alleviate poverty, drive inclusive economic empowerment and reduce poverty Objectives of the MTNDP 2021-2025 Macro-economic Framework Challengingmacroeconomicenvironmentunder pinnedbyhighdependenceoftheeconomyonoilf orgovernment srevenueandexportswithimplicationsforfor eignexchangeregimeandforeignexchangeavai lability Lowproductivityandefficiencyoftheeconomy ,resultinginlowprivatereturns,andlimited capacityoftheprivatesectortoappropriater eturns Limitedavailabilityofcreditforprivateinv estment,particularlyforMSME scombinedwithinadequatefinancialinstrume ntstohelpdiversifyrisk WeakInfrastructureandrent-seekingactivit iesincreasethecostsofoperationforthepriv atesector.

3 Weakcollectiveknow-howinproducingcomplex goods,hamperingtheeconomy ,itlostouttothecompetitionintheproductio nandexportofagriculturalproducts,chemica ls,machineryandvehicles, following binding constraints were taken into account in developing the MTNDP and specific policy measures identified in addressing them Reform and investments that will help improve investment returns, particularly macro-structural measures and projects to enhance access to and cost of physical infrastructure seem the most urgent areas for action. Growth diagnosis Continuetocontaintheeconomicandhealthimp actofthepandemicthroughfiscalandmonetary policiesinatransparentandefficientmanner . Sustaintheeconomicrecoveryandputtheecono myonapathofincreasingpercapitaincometoav ertthepasttrendofhigherpopulationcompare dtotherealGDPgrowth.

4 Macroeconomicstability,anchoredoncoordin atedfiscalandmonetarypolicies,toachievea decliningpathofinflation,aforeignexchang eregimethatallowsformanagedflexibilityan dconsistencywithmacro-structuralfundamen tals. ; Amorecompetitivenon-oilsector;andamorero bustandresilienteconomythatislessdepende ntontheoilsector. Increasedemploymentgeneration-projectedi ncreaseofabout[25]million,with[10]millio nfromdirectgrowthimpact.;and[15]millionf romskill-acquisitionotherinterventions. TheprojectedrealGDPgrowthduring2021-25wo uldbesufficienttoensurethatabout[10]mill ionpeopledonotfallintopoverty. Additionalnumberofpeople[25]millionwillb etakenoutofpoverty,ensuringthatpovertyra tereach[31] macroeconomic goals during the implementation of MTNDP 9 REAL SECTOR20212022202320242025 GDP (current market prices) (N'B)171, 192, 215, 241, 271, GDP (current basic prices) (N'B)169, 190, 213, 239, 268, GDP (constant basic prices) (N'B) - Real71, 73, 76, 79, 84, Consumer price index Inflation rate (%)

5 GROWTH IN CONSTANT (REAL) VALUESReal GDP Growth (%) Oil GDP (constant basic prices) (N'B)( ) Non-Oil GDP (constant basic prices) (N'B) Agric GDP (constant basic prices) (N'B) Industrial GDP (constant basic prices) (N'B) Services GDP (constant basic prices) (N'B)( ) Private Consumption Expenditure (N'B) Gross fixed capital formation (N'B) - constant prices( ) Private Investment (N'B) - constant prices( ) Public Investment (N'B) - constant SHARE OF GDP (%)Oil GDP (current basic prices)

6 (N'B) Non-Oil GDP (current basic prices) (N'B) Agric GDP (current basic prices) (N'B) Industrial GDP (current basic prices) (N'B) Services GDP (current basic prices) (N'B) Private Consumption Expenditure (N'B) Gross fixed capital formation (N'B) Public Investment (N'B) Private Investment (N'B) Domestic Saving (N'B) Private Saving (N'B) PROJECTIONSKey indicators for the real sector10 FISCAL SECTOR20212022202320242025 Government Oil Revenue (N'B)4, 5, 6, 7, 7, Federal Independent Revenue (N'B)

7 1, 1, 2, 3, Total Federal Revenue (N'B)4, 5, 6, 7, 8, Federal Transfer Expenditure(N'B) Total Federal Expenditure (N'B)10, 12, 13, 15, 16, Federal Deficit-to-GDP ratio (%)( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) General Government Net Revenue (N'B)9, 11, 13, 15, 19, General Government Total Expenditure (N'B)15, 18, 20, 22, 24, General Government Total Debt (N'B)36, 46, 55, 63, 71, General Government Public debt-to-GDP ratio (%) PROJECTIONS20212022202320242025 FISCAL SECTOR (share of GDP )General Government Net Revenue (%) Government Oil Revenue (%) Total Federal Revenue (%) Federal Independent Revenue (%) Total Federal Expenditure (%)

8 Federal Deficit-to-GDP ratio (%)( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) General Government Public debt-to-GDP ratio (%) PROJECTIONSKey indicators for the fiscal sector1120212022202320242025 EXTERNAL SECTORF oreign direct investment, net inflows (BoP, current N'B) 1, 1, Net Foreign Portfolio Investment (N' B)2, 2, ( ) 2, 3, Foreign debt (N'B)15, 18, 24, 28, 33, Exports of goods and services ( N'B)16, 20, 23, 26, 29, Oil export (N'B)14, 17, 19, 20, 21, Non-oil export (N'B)2, 3, 4, 5, 8, Imports of goods and services (N'B)17, 18, 20, 21, 24, Current Account Balance (N'B)( ) 3, 5, 7, 8, 20212022202320242025 EXTERNAL SECTOR ( share of GDP)Foreign direct investment, net inflows (%) Net Foreign Portfolio Investment (%)

9 ( ) Foreign debt (%) Exports of goods and services (%) Oil export (%) Non-oil export (%) Imports of goods and services (%) Trade Balance (%)( ) Current Account Balance (%)( ) PROJECTIONSKey Indicators For External Sector ,asustainedeconomicrecoverywouldbeamajor requirementforconsideringadditionalreven ue-enhancingmeasures.

10 Finetuningmonetarypolicyframework,withem phasisonpricestability,supporttotheecono myasappropriate,harmonizationoftheexchan geratesandensuringthattheeventualunified exchangerateiswellalignedwithmacro-struc turalfundamentals. Furtheracceleratingthepaceofeconomic


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