Nomura21 Global 3月号 - 野村證券

1 Nomura21 Global 2018 3 . 0. Nomura21 Global 2018 3 . 1. Nomura21 Global 2018 3 . Nomura21 Global . Nomura21 Global .. Nomura21 Global Nomura21 . Global ( ) .. Nomura21 Global REIT ETF ETN . 2017 4 40 25 .. Nomura21 Global .. 11 . ( ) .. ( ) (Morningstar Inc.) . 2003 11 .. 35 . Nomura21 Global .. Nomura21 Global 2. Nomura21 Global 2018 3 Nomura21 Global 2018 3 .. 2018 2 16 .. 4307 P57. IoT( ) ICT( ) . M&A.. 4324 P61.. 2018 .. A3222/PCLN US P95.. 6702 . ICT .. 6954 .. A6161/FB US .. ( 1) (GICS ) 122 . ( 2) . 2018 3 23 ( ) . 3 3. Nomura21 Global 2018 3 . Contents P5 . NY 5. 7 14. 9 35. 10 (2 ) 38. 11 41. 13 49. P55 .. 4307 57. 4324 61. 5801 65. 2875 69. 3086 J 71. 4901 73. 6273 SMC 75. 6301 77. 6504 79. 6752 81. 6758 83. 6902 85. 6981 87. 7203 89. 9064 91. 9984 93.. A3222/PCLN US 95. A0784/UNP US 99. A1066/ADBE US 103. A3300/RHT US 105. A3311/AMZN US 107. A4967/CRM US 109. A4987/GOOGL US (A ) 111. A5608/V US 113. A6792/SQ US 115.. ( 1) (GICS ) 122 . ( 2) . Nomura21 Global 117.

2 Nomura21 Global 118. 119. 121. (GICS ) 122. 124. Contents 4. Nomura21 Global 2018 3 Nomura21 Global 2018 3 . NY . 2017 9 10 11 . 1 3 6 7 8 11 13 15 20 21 22 24 25 26 27 28 1 2 4 6 8 11 22 23 24 25 26 27 31 1 2 5 7 8 9 11 1619 21 2829 30.. 9 9 9 9 . (. 9 3 4 . 10 .. (.. 8 .. 12 .. 1 .. 28 .. 3 . 8 15 .. 10 2 58 .. 2 .. 3 . ). ).. 7 26 .. 5 . (.. 16 11 . 11 .. 2 .. ).. 5 20 10 2 12 .. 21 .. 4 12 .. 9 .. 3 .. 10 .. 2 .. 25000 .. 24000 11/9.. 23382.. 23000 .. 22000 . 11/16. 21000 ( ) 21972. 20000 11/6. 19000 9/8 10/6. 19239 10/16. 11/27. ( ) . 29000 9/8. 27000. 25000. NY ( ) 10/24. 23485. 23000 11/15. 23242. 9/5. 21000 21709. 10 ( ). 10/2 10/20. 10/26. 10/5 10/10 11/6. 10/13. 11/7. 10 ( ) 9/4 9/7. 2017 9 . 17/9 10 . 17/10 11 . 17/11. ( ) 10 10 2018 2 13 . ( ) . 5 NY 5. Nomura21 Global 2018 3 . 12 2018 1 2 . 1 2 6 7 13 15 20 21 22 25 28 4 5 8 9 10 15 16 20 22 23 24 25 26 30 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 12.. 4 .. 8 .. 2 .. 12 1 . 4 .. 22 19 8 .. 7 .. 3 .. 4.. 23 .. 2 . 7 .. 25.

3 97 . 3 . 31 .. 0 2 50 2 .. 4 25 .. O.. 1 .. 26 . 2 . 3 .. 1 .. 10 2 .. 2 .. 5 .. 21 1 .. 1/23 .. 24129 .. 12/1 12/12 . 22994 22994 . ( ) 2/13. 12/15 . 12/6 22478 . 22119. 21244 . 2/6. 21078 / . 115. 12/12 12/21. 113. 12/15. 2/2. 111. ( ) 2/13. 109.. 1/26 . 107. 1/26. 26616. 2/13. NY . 12/4 . 24534 NY ( ) 24640 . 12/7. 24101 2/9. 23360. 2/1 2/13 . 10 ( ) 2/12 ( ) . 12/7 12/20 ( ). 12/25 12/29,1/1. 10 ( ) 12 2018 1 2 17/12 18/1 18/2. NY 6. Nomura21 Global 2018 3 Nomura21 Global 2018 3 . 2018 3 . ( ) 3 ( ) 3 . 1 ( )2 ( )2 ISM . ( )2 PMI ( )10-12 GDP. 2 1 1 2 ( )10-12 GDP. 1 4 . 5 ( )2 ISM ( )1 . ( ) 13 1 . 6 ( ) ( )10-12 GDP. 7 ( )2 ADP ( )1 ( )10-12 GDP. ( ) . ( ) . 8 ( 9 ) 8 TPP11 ( ) ( ) . 10-12 GDP(2 ) ( )1 ( )2 . 1 2 9 ( )2 ( )2 ( )2 . 13 ( )2 . 14 1 14 ( )2 ( ). ( )1-2 ( )1-2 ( )1-2 . 15 ( )3 . ( )3 (NZ)10-12 GDP. 16 ( )2 ( )2 . ( )3 ( ). 18 ( ) . 19 2 19 G20 ( 20 ). 2 ( 19-22 ) 20 ( )FOMC( )( 21 ). 20 2 ( )3 ZEW . 21 ( )2 . ( ) . 22 3 PMI( ) 22 EU ( 23 ) ( )3 PMI( ).

4 2 ( 22-23 ) ( )3 PMI( ) ( )3 IFO . ( ) . (NZ) . ( ) . 23 2 23 ( )2 ( )2 . ( ) . 29 2 28 ( )10-12 GDP( ) ( ) . 30 2 2 29 ( )10-12 GDP. 2 ( ) 2 30 ( )3 . 3 31 ( )3 PMI. NAFTA .. 2017 1 30-31 31-2 1 19 2018 1 22-23 30-31 25 . 2 2 3 . 3 15-16 14-15 9 3 8-9 20-21 8 . 4 26-27 27 4 26-27 26 . 5 2-3 5 1-2 . 6 15-16 13-14 8 6 14-15 12-13 14 . 7 19-20 25-26 20 7 30-31 31-8 1 26 . 8 8 . 9 20-21 19-20 7 9 18-19 25-26 13 . 10 30-31 31-11 1 26 10 30-31 25 . 11 11 7-8 . 12 20-21 12-13 14 12 19-20 18-19 13 . ( ) . ( ) . 7 2018 3 7. Nomura21 Global 2018 3 .. 18 3 8 ( 9 ) 4 . 5 13 1 . 8 ECB . 18 . 19 19 G20 G20 ( 20 ). 20 FOMC(FRB )( 21 ). 22 EU ( 23 ). NAFTA( ) . 4 8 20 IMF ( 22 ). G20 G20 ( ). 25 ASEAN ( 28 ). 26 ( 27 ) (27 ) 26 ECB .. 5 1 FOMC(FRB )( 2 ). 6 14 ( 15 ) 8 G7 G7 ( 9 ). 12 FOMC(FRB )( 13 ). 14 ECB . FIFA ( 7 15 ). 22 OPEC ( ). 28 EU ( 29 ). 7 30 ( 31 ) (31 ) 1 . 11 NATO( ) ( 12 ). 21 G20 G20 ( 22 ). 26 ECB . 31 FOMC(FRB )( 8 1 ). 8 3 . 9 18 ( 19 ) 13 ECB . 18 73 ( 30 ).

5 30 ( ) 25 FOMC(FRB )( 26 ). 10 30 ( 31 ) (31 ) 7 (28 ). 12 IMF ( 14 ). 18 EU ( 19 ). 25 ECB . 19 3 (3 ). 11 6 ( 1/3 ). 7 FOMC(FRB )( 8 ). 11 ASEAN ( 15 ). 12 APEC ( ). 30 G20 G20 ( 12 1 ). OPEC . 12 19 ( 20 ) 13 ECB . EU ( 14 ). 18 FOMC(FRB )( 19 ).. 19 3 29 EU . 5 1 . 10 1 (8 10%) 20 . 31 ECB . 20 7 24 ( 8 9 ). 11 3 . ( ) . ( ) (2018 2 1 ) . 8. Nomura21 Global 2018 3 Nomura21 Global 2018 3 .. 2018 + .. 2017 2018 . 2018 . + + . FRB( ) 2018 3 . 3 4 2019 3 9 2 . 3 .. S&P500 EPS(1 . ) 2018 + .. ECB( ) 2018 9 10- 12 .. 2018 + .. 2018 1 =55 65 .. 2018 + . 2 . 2019 . 9 9. Nomura21 Global 2018 3 .. 2 .. 3 FOMC( ) .. 2018 . PBR( ) PER( ) 13 .. IoT( . ) .. 10. Nomura21 Global 2018 3 Nomura21 Global 2018 3 .. 2 1.. 32 . + . 191 .. 128 . + . 268 .. ( ) ( / ) ( / ) 4 . TOPIX TOPIX . 1961 1. 4 2013 9 TOPIX17 . 3 ( ) .. 2 1.. + . + . 4 . 35 .. 4 + . 33 . ( ) GDP( / ) ( / ) 4 .. S&P 500 S&P 500 . 1995 . 2 2014 1 GICS( . 3 4 ) 10 . ( ) .. 11 11. Nomura21 Global 2018 3 .. ECB.

6 ( ) . 2 1.. + . 4 31 .. + ( 1) GDP( / ) ( / ) 4 .. 8 + . 18 1999 2 2014 2 ( 2) .. ( ) . ( 3) (IBC) 19 . 3 4 . ( ) Reuters Datastream .. ECB( ) .. (GDP ) / / . ( ) .. 4 1 2 3 4.. 2 1.. 1 . 2 . 3 4. 3 . ( ) . 4 . 12. Nomura21 Global 2018 3 Nomura21 Global 2018 3 .. VIX( ). S&P500 .. ( ) ( ).. 50. 40 . 30 .. 20 . VIX 10.. 0. 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 ( ). 10 20 30 . ( ) 2018 2 13 . 40 ( ) .. ( ) .. 2017 .. QE( ) .. (yield) . ( ) .. ( . ) .. (10 ) .. ( ) . (= ) . (=1 ) . 13 13. Nomura21 Global 2018 3 . 4 . ( ) 2013/5/22 2016/11/8 MEMO.. 10 ( ). PCE . ( ).. 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 ( ). 10 . PCE( ( ) 10 . ) 2 2018 2 13 PCE( . ) 2018. 1 2017 12 . FRB ( ) .. ( ) .. 2015 . ( ) 2016/1-2 2016/6/23 2018/2/2 ( ) MEMO. 28000 4 C 100.. 2015/8/11. 26000 2016/11/8 90.. 24000 80. NY ( ). 2013/5/22. 22000 70.. 20000 60. 18000 50. 16000 40. ( ). 14000 30. VIX ( ). 12000 20. 10000 10. 8000 0. 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 ( ). 2 5 NY ( )VIX S&P500 . VIX 2015 8 . VIX . 2018 2 13.

7 VIX . 4 C 2016 /. 2016 (Crude Oil) . (Currency) (Credit) . (China) . ( ) . 14. Nomura21 Global 2018 3 Nomura21 Global 2018 3 .. MEMO.. ( ) . ( ) .. ( GDP ) ( GDP ) MEMO. 200 12.. 180 10. (2018 2 12 ). 160 8.. 140 ( ) 6. 120 4. 100 2017 6 2.. 80 0. 60 -2.. 40 -4. ( ). 20 -6. 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 ( / ).. CBO( ) GDP . 4 5 ( )2018 . CBO( ) . 2 12 . CRFB(Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget). CBO .. ( )CBO CRFB . 15 15. Nomura21 Global 2018 3 . 3 . MEMO. (%). (2018 2 11 ). 10 . FOMC . FF . FF . ( ) ( ). 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ( ). FRB( ) .. ( ) 2018 2 14 . 3 . FF FRB . FOMC . 2019 . ( )FRB .. MEMO. 3 20-21 FOMC( ). FRB FRB . 3 23 .. 3 NAFTA( ) . NAFTA . 2018 7 1 . 2018 11 6 .. ( 100 51 33 2018 ). 51 47 2. 2018 8 23 2. ( 435 218 2018 ). 239 193 3.. 11 7 .. FOMC .. ( ) . ( ) .. 16. Nomura21 Global 2018 3 Nomura21 Global 2018 3 .. ( ) . 20 . 2018/1 P 107 (A3311) . + P 113 (A5608) . 15.. 10 MEMO. 5. 0. 2018/1.. + . ( ). -5. -10. -15. 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 ( ).

8 GDP 7 .. 2017 2018 1 . ( ) .. 2018 1 . ( ) .. ( - ) ( ) MEMO. 50 40.. ( ). 40 30. 30 20. 20 10. 10 0. 0 -10.. -10 4 ( ) -20. ( ). -20 -30. 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 ( ).. ( ) . 2017 10-12 . 2018 1-3 . ( ) .. 17 17. Nomura21 Global 2018 3 .. ( ) MEMO. 10.. 8. 6. 10 . 4.. 2. 0. ( ) . -2. -4. -6 . -8. 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 ( ). EPS(1 ) . 10 ( ) EPS(1 ) . EPS PER( ) EPS 12 . S&P500 .. 2018 2 13 . ( ) .. ( ) ( ) MEMO. 2018 2 9 55 ( ) 20. 50 15. 45 10. ( ) 40 5. 2017 12 15 35 0. 30 S&P500 EPS -5. ( ). 25 -10. 1-3. 4-6. 7-9. 1-3. 4-6. 7-9. 1-3. 4-6. 7-9. 10-12 . 10-12 . 10-12. 10-12. 1-3 . 4-6 . 7-9 . ( ). 2015 2016 2017 2018 ( ). 2017 10-12 .. 2018 EPS(1 ) ( ) . 2017 10-12 . 10% . 2018 1-3 2017 12 15. EPS . 2018 2 9 . 2011 . ( ) . 18. Nomura21 Global 2018 3 Nomura21 Global 2018 3 . S&P500 EPS . ( ) S&P500 EPS ( ) MEMO.. 200 3200. 180 173 2800. S&P500 . 160 157 2400. ( ). 140 132 2000. 120 119 117 118 1600. 110. 104.

9 100 98 1200. 88. 85 85. 80 76 800. 65. 61 S&P500 . 60 EPS ( ) 400. 40 0. 2005200620072008200920102011201220132014 20152016201720182019. 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 ( ). S&P500 EPS(1 ) 2017 . 2018 EPS . 2017 2018 2 . ( )S&P500 2018 2 14 .. EPS 2017 2018 2 9 .. ( ) .. ( ) MEMO. 16 3000. 14 2500. 12 2000. S&P500 . 10 ( ) 1500. ( ). 8 1000. 6 500. 4 10 0. ( ). 2 -500.. ( ). 0 -1000. 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 ( ).. ( ) 2018 2 14 . ( ) . 19 19. Nomura21 Global 2018 3 .. ( ) MEMO. 62. 2016 9 4 . 50 . 60.. 58. 56.. 54. 52.. 50. 48. 46. 44 4 . 50 . 42. 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 ( ). GDP 6 .. ( ) 2018 1 50 . ISM . PMI( ) . PMI . ( ) . (ISM) Markit Group .. ( ) MEMO. 2016 9 3 . 25 2017. 4 . 20. 15 . 10. 5 . 0. -5.. -10. 3 . -15 .. -20. 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 ( ).. ( ) ( . ) . 2017 12 .. ( )CEIC . 20. Nomura21 Global 2018 3 Nomura21 Global 2018 3 .. ( ) ( /1 ) MEMO. 135. 10 . ( ) 130. 125. 120.

10 115. 110. 105. ( ). 100. 95.. 90. 2015/1 2015/7 2016/1 2016/7 2017/1 2017/7 2018/1 ( / ). 10 .. ( ) 2018 2 15 . 10 10 - 10 .. ( ) .. ( ) 2013 5 2015 8 2018 2 MEMO. NY .. ( ). -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 -15 -10 -5 0 5 -10 -5 0 5. ( ) (2013 5 22 ) . FRB ( ) .. 2013 5 21 6 21 1 . 2018 2 (2015 8 11 ) .. 2015 8 10 9 10 1 . NY 1175 (2018 . 2 5 ) 2018 2 . 1 2 14 . ( ) . 21 21. Nomura21 Global 2018 3 .. ( ) ( /1 )[ ] MEMO. / 2015/8/11.. 2018/2/14.. 2018/1. 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 ( ). 2017 . 2015 8 .. ( ) 2018 2 . 14 2018 1 ( . / / ). ( ) .. MEMO.. + . 2016 10 2015 10 2015 12 . 80 .. ETF . 6 . + . 2015 1 2016 8 2017 7 .. + .. 2015 1 2017 11 . 2018 1 .. 600 . 300 . 2 .. ( ) .. 2018 1 18 . ( ) .. 22. Nomura21 Global 2018 3 Nomura21 Global 2018 3 .. MEMO.. 2 .. ( ) . ( ) .. ( ) MEMO. 2010/2. 50.. 40. 2010/3.. 30. 2018/1.. 20. 10. 0. -10. 2017/12. -20 . 2009/2. -30.. -40. 2009/2. -50 . 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 ( ).. ( ) 2017 12. 2018 1 ( / ) . ( ) . 23 23. Nomura21 Global 2018 3.