Nomura21 Global 3月号 - 野村證券

1 Nomura21 Global 2018 3 . 0. Nomura21 Global 2018 3 . 1. Nomura21 Global 2018 3 . Nomura21 Global . Nomura21 Global .. Nomura21 Global Nomura21 . Global ( ) .. Nomura21 Global REIT ETF ETN . 2017 4 40 25 .. Nomura21 Global .. 11 . ( ) .. ( ) (Morningstar Inc.) . 2003 11 .. 35 . Nomura21 Global .. Nomura21 Global 2. Nomura21 Global 2018 3 Nomura21 Global 2018 3 .. 2018 2 16 .. 4307 P57. IoT( ) ICT( ) . M&A.. 4324 P61.. 2018 .. A3222/PCLN US P95.. 6702 . ICT .. 6954 .. A6161/FB US .. ( 1) (GICS ) 122 . ( 2) . 2018 3 23 ( ) . 3 3. Nomura21 Global 2018 3 . Contents P5 . NY 5. 7 14. 9 35. 10 (2 ) 38. 11 41. 13 49. P55 .. 4307 57. 4324 61.

2 5801 65. 2875 69. 3086 J 71. 4901 73. 6273 SMC 75. 6301 77. 6504 79. 6752 81. 6758 83. 6902 85. 6981 87. 7203 89. 9064 91. 9984 93.. A3222/PCLN US 95. A0784/UNP US 99. A1066/ADBE US 103. A3300/RHT US 105. A3311/AMZN US 107. A4967/CRM US 109. A4987/GOOGL US (A ) 111. A5608/V US 113. A6792/SQ US 115.. ( 1) (GICS ) 122 . ( 2) . Nomura21 Global 117. Nomura21 Global 118. 119. 121. (GICS ) 122. 124. Contents 4. Nomura21 Global 2018 3 Nomura21 Global 2018 3 . NY . 2017 9 10 11 . 1 3 6 7 8 11 13 15 20 21 22 24 25 26 27 28 1 2 4 6 8 11 22 23 24 25 26 27 31 1 2 5 7 8 9 11 1619 21 2829 30.. 9 9 9 9 . (. 9 3 4 . 10 .. (.. 8 .. 12 .. 1.))

3 28 .. 3 . 8 15 .. 10 2 58 .. 2 .. 3 . ). ).. 7 26 .. 5 . (.. 16 11 . 11 .. 2 .. ).. 5 20 10 2 12 .. 21 .. 4 12 .. 9 .. 3 .. 10 .. 2 .. 25000 .. 24000 11/9.. 23382.. 23000 .. 22000 . 11/16. 21000 ( ) 21972. 20000 11/6. 19000 9/8 10/6. 19239 10/16. 11/27. ( ) . 29000 9/8. 27000. 25000. NY ( ) 10/24. 23485. 23000 11/15. 23242. 9/5. 21000 21709. 10 ( ). 10/2 10/20. 10/26. 10/5 10/10 11/6. 10/13. 11/7. 10 ( ) 9/4 9/7. 2017 9 . 17/9 10 . 17/10 11 . 17/11. ( ) 10 10 2018 2 13 . ( ) . 5 NY 5. Nomura21 Global 2018 3 . 12 2018 1 2 . 1 2 6 7 13 15 20 21 22 25 28 4 5 8 9 10 15 16 20 22 23 24 25 26 30 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 12.. 4 .. 8 .. 2 .. 12 1.

4 4 .. 22 19 8 .. 7 .. 3 .. 4.. 23 .. 2 . 7 .. 25 . 97 . 3 . 31 .. 0 2 50 2 .. 4 25 .. O.. 1 .. 26 . 2 . 3 .. 1 .. 10 2 .. 2 .. 5 .. 21 1 .. 1/23 .. 24129 .. 12/1 12/12 . 22994 22994 . ( ) 2/13. 12/15 . 12/6 22478 . 22119. 21244 . 2/6. 21078 / . 115. 12/12 12/21. 113. 12/15. 2/2. 111. ( ) 2/13. 109.. 1/26 . 107. 1/26. 26616. 2/13. NY . 12/4 . 24534 NY ( ) 24640 . 12/7. 24101 2/9. 23360. 2/1 2/13 . 10 ( ) 2/12 ( ) . 12/7 12/20 ( ). 12/25 12/29,1/1. 10 ( ) 12 2018 1 2 17/12 18/1 18/2. NY 6. Nomura21 Global 2018 3 Nomura21 Global 2018 3 . 2018 3 . ( ) 3 ( ) 3 . 1 ( )2 ( )2 ISM . ( )2 PMI ( )10-12 GDP. 2 1 1 2 ( )10-12 GDP. 1 4 . 5 ( )2 ISM ( )1.

5 ( ) 13 1 . 6 ( ) ( )10-12 GDP. 7 ( )2 ADP ( )1 ( )10-12 GDP. ( ) . ( ) . 8 ( 9 ) 8 TPP11 ( ) ( ) . 10-12 GDP(2 ) ( )1 ( )2 . 1 2 9 ( )2 ( )2 ( )2 . 13 ( )2 . 14 1 14 ( )2 ( ). ( )1-2 ( )1-2 ( )1-2 . 15 ( )3 . ( )3 (NZ)10-12 GDP. 16 ( )2 ( )2 . ( )3 ( ). 18 ( ) . 19 2 19 G20 ( 20 ). 2 ( 19-22 ) 20 ( )FOMC( )( 21 ). 20 2 ( )3 ZEW . 21 ( )2 . ( ) . 22 3 PMI( ) 22 EU ( 23 ) ( )3 PMI( ). 2 ( 22-23 ) ( )3 PMI( ) ( )3 IFO . ( ) . (NZ) . ( ) . 23 2 23 ( )2 ( )2 . ( ) . 29 2 28 ( )10-12 GDP( ) ( ) . 30 2 2 29 ( )10-12 GDP. 2 ( ) 2 30 ( )3 . 3 31 ( )3 PMI. NAFTA .. 2017 1 30-31 31-2 1 19 2018 1 22-23 30-31 25 . 2 2 3 . 3 15-16 14-15 9 3 8-9 20-21 8.

6 4 26-27 27 4 26-27 26 . 5 2-3 5 1-2 . 6 15-16 13-14 8 6 14-15 12-13 14 . 7 19-20 25-26 20 7 30-31 31-8 1 26 . 8 8 . 9 20-21 19-20 7 9 18-19 25-26 13 . 10 30-31 31-11 1 26 10 30-31 25 . 11 11 7-8 . 12 20-21 12-13 14 12 19-20 18-19 13 . ( ) . ( ) . 7 2018 3 7. Nomura21 Global 2018 3 .. 18 3 8 ( 9 ) 4 . 5 13 1 . 8 ECB . 18 . 19 19 G20 G20 ( 20 ). 20 FOMC(FRB )( 21 ). 22 EU ( 23 ). NAFTA( ) . 4 8 20 IMF ( 22 ). G20 G20 ( ). 25 ASEAN ( 28 ). 26 ( 27 ) (27 ) 26 ECB .. 5 1 FOMC(FRB )( 2 ). 6 14 ( 15 ) 8 G7 G7 ( 9 ). 12 FOMC(FRB )( 13 ). 14 ECB . FIFA ( 7 15 ). 22 OPEC ( ). 28 EU ( 29 ). 7 30 ( 31 ) (31 ) 1 . 11 NATO( ) ( 12 ). 21 G20 G20 ( 22 ).

7 26 ECB . 31 FOMC(FRB )( 8 1 ). 8 3 . 9 18 ( 19 ) 13 ECB . 18 73 ( 30 ). 30 ( ) 25 FOMC(FRB )( 26 ). 10 30 ( 31 ) (31 ) 7 (28 ). 12 IMF ( 14 ). 18 EU ( 19 ). 25 ECB . 19 3 (3 ). 11 6 ( 1/3 ). 7 FOMC(FRB )( 8 ). 11 ASEAN ( 15 ). 12 APEC ( ). 30 G20 G20 ( 12 1 ). OPEC . 12 19 ( 20 ) 13 ECB . EU ( 14 ). 18 FOMC(FRB )( 19 ).. 19 3 29 EU . 5 1 . 10 1 (8 10%) 20 . 31 ECB . 20 7 24 ( 8 9 ). 11 3 . ( ) . ( ) (2018 2 1 ) . 8. Nomura21 Global 2018 3 Nomura21 Global 2018 3 .. 2018 + .. 2017 2018 . 2018 . + + . FRB( ) 2018 3 . 3 4 2019 3 9 2 . 3 .. S&P500 EPS(1 . ) 2018 + .. ECB( ) 2018 9 10- 12 .. 2018 + .. 2018 1 =55 65 .. 2018 + . 2 . 2019.

8 9 9. Nomura21 Global 2018 3 .. 2 .. 3 FOMC( ) .. 2018 . PBR( ) PER( ) 13 .. IoT( . ) .. 10. Nomura21 Global 2018 3 Nomura21 Global 2018 3 .. 2 1.. 32 . + . 191 .. 128 . + . 268 .. ( ) ( / ) ( / ) 4 . TOPIX TOPIX . 1961 1. 4 2013 9 TOPIX17 . 3 ( ) .. 2 1.. + . + . 4 . 35 .. 4 + . 33 . ( ) GDP( / ) ( / ) 4 .. S&P 500 S&P 500 . 1995 . 2 2014 1 GICS( . 3 4 ) 10 . ( ) .. 11 11. Nomura21 Global 2018 3 .. ECB . ( ) . 2 1.. + . 4 31 .. + ( 1) GDP( / ) ( / ) 4 .. 8 + . 18 1999 2 2014 2 ( 2) .. ( ) . ( 3) (IBC) 19 . 3 4 . ( ) Reuters Datastream .. ECB( ) .. (GDP ) / / . ( ) .. 4 1 2 3 4.. 2 1.. 1 . 2 . 3 4. 3 . ( ) . 4 . 12. Nomura21 Global 2018 3 Nomura21 Global 2018 3.

9 VIX( ). S&P500 .. ( ) ( ).. 50. 40 . 30 .. 20 . VIX 10.. 0. 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 ( ). 10 20 30 . ( ) 2018 2 13 . 40 ( ) .. ( ) .. 2017 .. QE( ) .. (yield) . ( ) .. ( . ) .. (10 ) .. ( ) . (= ) . (=1 ) . 13 13. Nomura21 Global 2018 3 . 4 . ( ) 2013/5/22 2016/11/8 MEMO.. 10 ( ). PCE . ( ).. 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 ( ). 10 . PCE( ( ) 10 . ) 2 2018 2 13 PCE( . ) 2018. 1 2017 12 . FRB ( ) .. ( ) .. 2015 . ( ) 2016/1-2 2016/6/23 2018/2/2 ( ) MEMO. 28000 4 C 100.. 2015/8/11. 26000 2016/11/8 90.. 24000 80. NY ( ). 2013/5/22. 22000 70.. 20000 60. 18000 50. 16000 40. ( ). 14000 30. VIX ( ). 12000 20. 10000 10. 8000 0. 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 ( ).

10 2 5 NY ( )VIX S&P500 . VIX 2015 8 . VIX . 2018 2 13 . VIX . 4 C 2016 /. 2016 (Crude Oil) . (Currency) (Credit) . (China) . ( ) . 14. Nomura21 Global 2018 3 Nomura21 Global 2018 3 .. MEMO.. ( ) . ( ) .. ( GDP ) ( GDP ) MEMO. 200 12.. 180 10. (2018 2 12 ). 160 8.. 140 ( ) 6. 120 4. 100 2017 6 2.. 80 0. 60 -2.. 40 -4. ( ). 20 -6. 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 ( / ).. CBO( ) GDP . 4 5 ( )2018 . CBO( ) . 2 12 . CRFB(Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget). CBO .. ( )CBO CRFB . 15 15. Nomura21 Global 2018 3 . 3 . MEMO. (%). (2018 2 11 ). 10 . FOMC . FF . FF . ( ) ( ). 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ( ). FRB( ) .. ( ) 2018 2 14.