November December 20, 2021

1 CLIMATEREVIEWforMarch April 25, 2022147thNational climate ForumPresenter:Joey FiguracionClimate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD)27 April 2022 Weather Systems Past ENSO Conditions climate Assessment SummaryOutline of DiscussionWeather SystemsWeather systems that affected the countryMARCH APRIL 25, 2022 LOW PRESSURE AREAS (LPAs)NORTHEASTMONSOONSHEARLINEEASTERLIE SINTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ)LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORMSTROPICAL CYCLONES (TCs)BagyoWeather SystemsTropical Cyclone (TC)oTS Agaton(Megi) April 9-12, 2022oTY Basyang(Malakas) April 12, 2022 AGATONBASYANGCALOYDOMENGESTERFLORITAGARD OHENRYINDAYJOSIEKARDINGLUISMAYMAYNENENGO BETPAENGQUEENIEROSALSAMUELTOMASUMBERTOVE NUSWALDOYAYANGZENY2022 BagyoPreliminary Observed Track and Meteorological OverviewMeteorological Overview(Based on preliminary post-analysis)Peak categoryTropical stormPeak intensity 75 km/h, 996 hPaHighest wind signal hoisted:Wind Signal 2 Number of landfalls observed: 2 Highest storm duration rainfall:Baybay City, Leyte: mm *adapted from TC group MMSS/WD Chronology of Meteorological Events and Activities Undertaken during TS AgatonDateSignificant Meteorological EventActivities UndertakenProducts Issuances + Hoisting of Wind SignalsNDRRM related meetings and MediaBriefings04 April2:00 AM.

2 Low Pressure Area Pre-AGATON was first mentioned in the Public Weather Forecast10:00 AM: Weather Update05 April8:30 AM: Initial Weather Advisory11:00 AM: Weather Update06 April11:00 AM: Weather Update08 April2:00 PM: PDRA Analyst Group5:00 PM: PDRA Core Group09 April2:00 AM: Developed into a Tropical Depression5:00 AM: Initial Tropical Cyclone Bulletin and Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping5:00 AM: First hoisting of Wind Signal No. 12:00 PM: PDRA Analyst Group5:00 PM: PDRA Core Group10 April2:00 AM: Intensified into a Tropical Storm5:00 AM: Reached peak intensity (75 km/h)7:30 AM: Landfall at CalicoanIsland, Guiuan, Eastern Samar5:00 AM: First hoisting of Wind Signal No. 210:00 AM: Weather Update11 April5:00 AM: Weakened into Tropical Depression4:00 PM: Landfall over Basey, Samar8:00 AM: Downgrading of Wind Signal No.

3 212 April8:00 PM: Weakened into Low Pressure Area11:00 PM: Final TCB and IWS11:00 PM: Lifting of all Wind Signals11:00 PM: Initial Weather Advisory13 April8:00 AM: Low Pressure Area dissipated11:00 AM: Final Weather Advisory*adapted from TC group MMSS/WD BagyoTS Agaton(Megi) and its associated rainfallAGATONBASYANGCALOYDOMENGESTERFLO RITAGARDOHENRYINDAYJOSIEKARDINGLUISMAYMA YNENENGOBETPAENGQUEENIEROSALSAMUELTOMASU MBERTOVENUSWALDOYAYANGZENY2022 BagyoTS Agaton(Megi) and its associated NormalOBSERVING STATIONSA ccummulated Rainfall (April 06-13) % NormalMonthly Normal (mm)Observed (mm)BagyoHistorical Cases of April Tropical CyclonesYearTropical Cyclone/sENSO Status1956TS 5602 and TY THELMAS trong La Ni a1971TY KARING, TS DIDING, and TS ETANGM oderate La Ni a1993TD BINING, TD KURING, and TD DALINGENSO Neutral1999TD KARING and TS DIDINGS trong La Ni a2017TD CRISING and TS DANTEM oderate La Ni a2022TS AGATON and TY BASYANGM oderate La Ni aApril TC cases against prevailing ENSO conditionBagyoEL Ni oNeutralLa Ni a-4-3-2-10123TC FrequencyYearAPRIL Tropical Cyclone Frequency Relative to ENSO Conditions1342 BagyoTS Agaton(Megi)

4 And its impacts*Abuyog, LeytePao AlicandoCapizOCD 6 IloiloPNAB aybay City, LeyteOffice of the President Davao de OroRosalie AlbaricoBaybay City, LeytePau LauBaybay City, LeyteDiane SalasayoCamotes, CebuJonah Mae BolanoTS Agaton(Megi) and its impacts*Bagyo*adapted from NDRRMC SitRepApril 26, 2022TY Basyang(Malakas) April 12 AGATONBASYANGCALOYDOMENGESTERFLORITAGARD OHENRYINDAYJOSIEKARDINGLUISMAYMAYNENENGO BETPAENGQUEENIEROSALSAMUELTOMASUMBERTOVE NUSWALDOYAYANGZENY2022 BagyoLa Ni aPast El Ni o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ConditionENSO INDICATORSOCEANIC INDICATOR (SST)ATMOSPHERIC INDICATOR (SLP)Oceanic Nino Index (ONI)Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)Both oceanic and atmospheric indicators remain at La Ni a in MarchData Source: BOM and NOAALa Ni a-15-10-505101520 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Pressure SOI (March 2020-March 2022) CMonthly ONI (March 2020-March 2022)ENSO Alert System Status:La Nina AdvisoryLa Nina increases the likelihood of having above normal rainfall conditions in some areas of the country.

5 La Ni a is still present in the Tropical Pacific and has started to weaken. Most climate models suggest that La Ni a is likely to continue through June-July-August 2022 period (~53% chance) and an ENSO-neutral condition is favored Ni aRainfallClimate AssessmentPercent of Normal = Actual Rainfall x 100%Normal RainfallUnderstanding the rainfall mapsPERCENTAGE (%)RAINFALL CONDITIONLess than 40 %waybelow normal41 80 %below normal81 120 %near normalGreater than 120 %above normalAssessment for Rainfall*Initial assessment Actual RainfallObserved (mm)% NormalNormal RR(mm)(1991-2020)Actual Rainfall of March 2022*Initial assessment Actual Rainfall of April 1-25, 2022 Actual Rainfall*Observed (mm)% NormalNormal RR(mm)(1991-2020)

6 Assessment for RainfallTemperatureClimate AssessmentActual Temperature for March 2022 Assessment for TemperatureSurpassed stationNew HighestOld recordItbayat, oCMarch 22, oCMarch 28, 2020 Virac, oCMarch 24, oCMarch 30, oCSan Jose, Occ. MindoroMarch 31, oCLa Trinidad, BenguetMarch 01, 2022 Actual Temperature for March 2022 Assessment for MEAN TEMPERATURE ANOMALY (MARCH OF 1961-2022)March 2022 ranked 4thwarmest March since 1961 in the Philippines* *Initial assessment (Philippines)Actual Temperature for March 2022 Assessment for TemperatureAdapted from NOAAA ctual Temperature for March 2022(Global)Assessment for TemperatureActual Temperaturefor April 1-25 oCSan Jose, Occ. MindoroApril 21, oCLa Trinidad, BenguetApril 09, 2022 Assessment for TemperatureActual Temperature as of April 25, 2022 HISTORICAL RECORDFor: All Stations Monitored (All Months)For: Metro Manila Stations (All Months) oCTuguegarao (4-22-1912 & 5-11-1969) oCPort Area, Manila (05-17-1915) oCBaguio (1-18-1961) oCPort Area, Manila (01-11-1914)FOR: 2021 (JANUARY - December 31, 2021)For: All Stations MonitoredFor: Metro Manila oCISU, Echague, Isabela ( May30) oCNAIA, Pasay City (May 29) City (Feb 20) oCScience Garden, QC (Feb 20) , La Trinidad (Dec 30)FOR: 2022 (JANUARY APRIL 25, 2022)For: All Stations MonitoredFor: Metro Manila JOSE, OCC.

7 MINDORO (April 21) oCSCIENCE GARDEN, QC (Mar 31) CITY (Jan 1, 3) oCSCIENCE GARDEN, QC (Jan 17) TRINIDAD, BENGUET (Jan 10)Assessment for TemperatureENSO Alert System Status: La Ni a Advisory No. 7 RainfallTemperatureMarch 2022 The country generally experienced near to above normal rainfall conditions, except Abra, Kalinga, Apayao, Ilocosprovinces and Camarines Norte, which received way below to below normal rainfall. Surface air temperatures were generally near to slightly above average in most parts of the country. SUMMARYA pril 1-25, 2022 Generally, above normal rainfall condition was experienced in most parts of the country except for below normal rainfall condition in Batanes and IlocosNorte, while Bataan, Nueva Ecija, and Pampanga experienced a way below normal rainfall condition.

8 Generally slightly cooler to cooler than average surface temperatures were felt in most parts of the : : @Dost_pagasaPanahono BagyoLocal 805 FloodLocal 808 IEC Local 102/103 ClimateLocal 905/906 PAGASA Trunkline:(02) 8284-0800 Thank you for your attentio