OECD 環境アウトルック2050

1 March 2012 OECD 2050: 1970 3 30 OECD 2050 40 ? OECD (PBL) 2050 OECD 2030 OECD, 2008 4 2050 2050 70 90 4 GDP 2030 2050 GDP OECD 65 15% 2050 25% 2050 70% 2050 4 80% 85% BRIICS 10 OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050.

2 The Consequences of Inaction - ISBN 978-92-64-122161 OECD 2012 2 2050 2 2050 CO2 70% GHG 50% 2050 685ppm 3 6 2 2020 16 COP16 2 2 1. : , 2010-2050 Note: OECD AI stands for the group of OECD countries that are also part of Annex I of the Kyoto Protocol. RoW = rest of the world GtCO2e = Giga tonnes of CO2 equivalent Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from ENV-Linkages model.

3 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 GtCO2e OECD AI Russia & rest of AI Rest of BRIICS ROW OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: The Consequences of Inaction - ISBN 978-92-64-122161 OECD 2012 3 2050 10% 13% 2050 3 1 2050 The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB) study 2 5 2. MSA : , 2010-2050 Note: MSA of 100% is equivalent to the undisturbed state; See Chapter 3, Table 1 for further explanations.

4 RoW = rest of the world Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline, output from IMAGE suite of models. 23 40% 400% 140% 130% 55% 3 BRIICS 2050 2 4,000 2015 1990 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% North America Europe Japan/Korea Australia/NZ Brazil Russia South Asia China Indonesia Southern Africa RoW World Mean species abundance 2010 2020 2030 2050 OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: The Consequences of Inaction - ISBN 978-92-64-122161 OECD 2012 4 MDG MDG 2015 2050 14 3.

5 ( : , 2000-2050 Note: This graph only measures blue water demand (see Box ) and does not consider rain-fed agriculture. RoW = rest of the world Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE suite of models. WTO 2050 2 360 OECD 2 OECD OECD 2050 BRIICS OECD OECD 4. : , 2010-2050 * Note: Child mortality only Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE suite of models. 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 2000 2050 2000 2050 2000 2050 2000 2050 OECD BRIICS RoW World Km3 irrigation domestic livestock manufacturing electricity Particulate Matter Ground-level ozone Unsafe Water Supply and Sanitation* Indoor Air Pollution Malaria Deaths (millions of people) 2010 2030 2050 OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050.)

6 The Consequences of Inaction - ISBN 978-92-64-122161 OECD 2012 5 2020 2 2050 70% 450ppm 2050 GDP 1 14% BRIICS 2050 10 7 1 5. 450 ppm : Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from ENV-Linkages model.

7 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Index 2010=100 Sc nario de r f rence 450 base GDP GHG emissions Baseline scenario 450ppm core scenario OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: The Consequences of Inaction - ISBN 978-92-64-122161 OECD 2012 6 OECD 2011 5 R&D

8 OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: The Consequences of Inaction - ISBN 978-92-64-122161 OECD 2012 7 2020 GDP 2,500 GDP

9 OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: The Consequences of Inaction - ISBN 978-92-64-122161 OECD 2012 8 Contact: OECD 2050 OECD, 2012 OECD (PBL)