Offshore Risk Assessment Methods and Tools

1 Offshore Risk Assessment An overview of Methods and Tools Vamanu, B. Necci, A. Tarantola S. Krausmann, E. 2016 This publication is a Technical report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commission s science and knowledge service. It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policymaking process. The scientific output expressed does not imply a policy position of the European Commission. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of this publication. JRC Science Hub JRC104209 Ispra: European Commission, 2016 European Union, 2016 The reuse of the document is authorised, provided the source is acknowledged and the original meaning or message of the texts are not distorted. The European Commission shall not be held liable for any consequences stemming from the reuse.

2 How to cite this report: Vamanu B., Necci A., Tarantola S., Krausmann E.; Offshore risk Assessment - An overview of Methods and Tools , European Commission, Ispra, 2016 All images European Union 2016 Title Offshore risk Assessment . An overview of Methods and Tools Abstract A solid familiarity with the basic principles of risk management and risk Assessment , as well as with the most widely used techniques, Methods and Tools , is a fundamental requirement on the Competent Authorities side in the context of the requirements of the Offshore Safety Directive. This report introduces the topic, and offers an illustration of one of the most important investigation techniques, the analysis of historical information. i Contents Abstract .. 3 1 Introduction .. 4 2 Risk definitions .. 6 3 The Risk 7 General aspects .. 7 Types of risk Assessment , selection of approach and level of detail.

3 8 The Risk Assessment Stages .. 11 Establish the Context .. 11 Hazard identification .. 11 Frequency Assessment .. 12 Consequence Assessment .. 13 Risk representation .. 16 Risk matrix .. 16 4 Risk Assessment techniques .. 19 The Hazard Identification Technique .. 19 Hazard review .. 19 The What-if Analysis .. 20 The Checklist Analysis .. 20 The Hazard and Operability (HAZOP) Analysis .. 21 Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) .. 23 (Statistical) Analysis of Historical records .. 26 SWIFT .. 28 Fault Tree analysis .. 30 Event Tree analysis .. 32 CCFA Common cause failure analysis .. 34 Human Reliability Analysis .. 36 The Bow Tie Analysis .. 37 5 Analysis of natural hazard impacts at Offshore facilities .. 40 The WOAD survey .. 40 Damage/failure mechanisms for natural-hazard impacts .. 44 Environmental actions and loads.

4 44 Damage to fixed structures .. 47 Damage to floating structures .. 48 Storage and production facilities: FSU, FPSO and loading buoys .. 49 Transport, towing and collision .. 50 Pipelines .. 50 ii Fatalities, serious injuries and pollution .. 51 Offshore Accidents triggered by natural events in 54 The Mediteranean .. 54 Natural Hazards .. 54 Accident Analysis .. 56 The North Sea and West Europe .. 56 The natural hazards .. 56 The Accident Analysis .. 57 Wrapping-up and future work .. 58 6 Conclusions .. 59 References .. 61 List of figures .. 65 List of tables .. 66 Annexes .. 67 Annex 1. Offshore NATECH accidents in European waters .. 67 3 Abstract One of the main requirements of the Offshore Safety Directive (Directive 2013/30/EU) is for the Member States Offshore regulatory bodies and the operators and owners to reduce the risks of major accidents in Offshore operations as low as reasonably practicable1.

5 While the duty in managing the risks stays with the industry ( the Offshore operators and owners), Member States regulatory bodies ( the Competent Authorities) also bare a great responsibility, having to assess the work of the former and to decide whether or not the measures taken are sufficient for providing an adequate level of risk. Therefore, a solid familiarity with the basic principles of risk management and risk Assessment , as well as with the most widely used techniques, Methods and Tools , is a fundamental requirement on the Competent Authorities side. Without aiming at being a comprehensive textbook, this report is an introduction in the risk Assessment with focus driven on the Offshore specific aspects. The work does not address the risk Assessment professionals, being mainly oriented towards an audience that needs to have a sufficient knowledge of the core (methodological and analytical) concepts governing the Offshore risk Assessment , for effectively performing the day-to-day activities.

6 In this line, a thorough literature and bibliographic research on various resources (including, yet not limited to: Offshore safety related regulatory documents, industry standards, guidance and best-practices; and standard reference materials in safety studies) have been performed to provide a content that would confer the reader sufficient information for a fair positioning in respect to the subject at hand. Even though the governing rules in risk Assessment are the same as in the generic case, the oil and gas Offshore risk Assessment presents some particularities, born from the specificity of these activities. This report addresses both these aspects: through the general approach in risk Assessment , the reader is introduced in the particular realm of Offshore risk Assessment . The information provided ( Methods , models, analytical Tools ) has been selected as to provide most relevance in the Offshore safety business.

7 This work has been performed within the context of the JRC Institutional Project SAFE-OIL between Units and 1 the point (from) where the cost of further risk reduction would be grossly disproportionate to the benefits of such reduction (OSD, Preamble (14)) 4 1 Introduction The Offshore Oil & Gas Industry is very important to the EU economy. Sixteen2 EU Member States are involved in the Industry, and Offshore exploration and production activities are carried out in a five of the EU geographical areas3. After the Deepwater Horizon accident in 2010, the need for legislation at the EU level on safety in the Offshore oil and gas sector became evident. For this purpose, in June 2013, the European Parliament and the Council officially adopted Directive 2013/30/EU (or Offshore Safety Directive, OSD) on safety of Offshore oil and gas operations and amending Directive 2004/35/CE.

8 The core objective of the OSD is (to reduce) as far as possible the occurrence of major accidents (..) and to limit their consequences (OSD, 2013) in the Offshore oil and gas operations. The solution adopted is providing a regulatory framework that, upon being transposed in the National legislations, and, in conjunction with the industry safety practices would be conducive to: 1. An unified approach to the safety of the Offshore oil and gas operations throughout the EU; 2. A minimum level of risks (to people, assets and environment) of these activities. The OSD aims to reducing the risks of major accidents in the Offshore operations as low as reasonably practicable4. While the duty in reducing the risks stays with the operators and owners, Member States regulatory bodies (the Competent Authorities) also bare a great responsibility, having to assess the work of the operators and owners and to decide whether or not the measures taken by the later are sufficient for providing an adequate level of risks.

9 Naturally, within this context, a solid familiarity with the basic principles of risk management and risk Assessment , as well as with with the most widely used techniques, Methods and Tools , is a fundamental requirement on the Competent Authorities side. This is what this report addresses. Without having the objective of being a comprehensive textbook, this report is an introduction in the risk Assessment with focus driven on the Offshore specific aspects. The authors intention is to provide a content that would confer the reader sufficient information for a fair positioning in respect to the Offshore risk Assessment . The report is mainly the result of a thorough literature and bibliographic research on various Offshore safety related regulatory documents in relevant countries ( , , Norway, Denmark, Australia) and from various industry standards, guidance and best-practice documents ( NORSOK, API, etc.)

10 Other well-known reference documents ( TNO colored books5) have been reviewed when introducing the Methods and models for addressing particular analytical aspects in risk Assessment (such as frequency/probability and consequence Assessment ). Lastly, this report is also based on the authors experience in the risk Assessment problematique. One remark should be made from the beginning: the OSD addresses the accident risks. This observation is relevant since assessing the risks of a system during normal operation and assessing the accident risks are two distinct topics in safety Assessment , each with different characteristics and requiring different analytical Tools (especially for consequence Assessment , see for example the acute intoxication vs. long-term exposure 2 BG, HR, CY, DK, FR, DE, GR, IRE, IT, MT, NL, PL, PT, RO, ES, UK 3 The North Sea, the Mediterranean Sea, the Baltic Sea, the Black Sea, and the Atlantic Ocean 4 the point (from) where the cost of further risk reduction would be grossly disproportionate to the benefits of such reduction (OSD, Preamble (14)) 5 More at: 5 models).