Transcription of Overview of Minerals Exploration, Development …
1 Ken Tainton exploration Director Africa-Eurasia Global Mining Finance London 13 March 2015 Overview of Minerals exploration , Development and production In Emerging Markets - A Major's Viewpoint 2015, Rio Tinto, All Rights Reserved Cautionary statement This presentation has been prepared by Rio Tinto plc and Rio Tinto Limited ( Rio Tinto ) and consisting of the slides for a presentation concerning Rio Tinto. By reviewing/attending this presentation you agree to be bound by the following conditions. Forward-looking statements This document contains certain forward-looking statements with respect to the financial condition, results of operations and business of the Rio Tinto Group. These statements are forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the US Securities Act of 1933, and Section 21E of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934. The words intend , aim , project , anticipate , estimate , plan , believes , expects , may , should , will , target , set to or similar expressions, commonly identify such forward-looking statements.
2 Examples of forward-looking statements include those regarding estimated ore reserves, anticipated production or construction dates, costs, outputs and productive lives of assets or similar factors. Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other factors set forth in this presentation that are beyond the Rio Tinto Group s control. For example, future ore reserves will be based in part on market prices that may vary significantly from current levels. These may materially affect the timing and feasibility of particular developments. Other factors include the ability to produce and transport products profitably, demand for our products, changes to the assumptions regarding the recoverable value of our tangible and intangible assets, the effect of foreign currency exchange rates on market prices and operating costs, and activities by governmental authorities, such as changes in taxation or regulation, and political uncertainty.
3 In light of these risks, uncertainties and assumptions, actual results could be materially different from projected future results expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements which speak only as to the date of this presentation. Except as required by applicable regulations or by law, the Rio Tinto Group does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events. The Group cannot guarantee that its forward-looking statements will not differ materially from actual results. 2 2015, Rio Tinto, All Rights Reserved Rio Tinto a world leader in mining 3 2015, Rio Tinto, All Rights Reserved Aluminium Leading position in: bauxite alumina aluminium Copper & Coal Leading position in: Copper Export coking and thermal coal molybdenum Diamonds & Minerals Leading position in: titanium dioxide and zircon borates, diamonds and salt uranium Iron Ore Leading position in: seaborne iron ore More than 80% of assets in the OECD 4 2015, Rio Tinto, All Rights Reserved 2014 total assets (excluding non-controlling interests) by region 2014 total assets = $80 billion 1 Other Asia mainly relates to assets in Singapore and Oman.
4 Total assets as at 31 December 2014 adjusted for non-controlling interests, cash, current and deferred tax receivables and derivatives. Excludes assets held for sale, cash and bank balances, current and deferred tax receivables, derivative assets. US 7% Australia/NZ 50% 1% Indonesia 3% 5% Canada 22% 4% Mongolia 2% Other Asia1 Africa South America 6% Europe We are not running out of resources globally IOC RT ET RT CID RT BKM RT MM RT DID RT Simandou 1Bt 5Bt 10Bt 20Bt 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 15% 35% 55% Cumulative Tonnage (Bt) Fe % 5 2015, Rio Tinto, All Rights Reserved Copper (in-situ resource inventory) Iron (in-situ resource inventory) 25Bt 10Bt 5Bt 1Bt In-situ inventory Sources: Rio Tinto compilation of public domain data. Rio Tinto Resources and Reserves - 2013 Annual Report, Rio Tinto exploration Target 17/10/2014 Press Release, Escondida data - BHP-B 2013 annual report, Grasberg data FCX Form10-K, 31 December 2012 0 15 30 45 60 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 0 600 1200 1800 2400 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Global production trends why explore?
5 6 2015, Rio Tinto, All Rights Reserved Aluminum Supply (Mt/a) Primary Copper* Supply (Kt/a) Iron Ore Supply (Mt/a) Source: US Geological Survey / Wood Mackenzie 2014 2000-2014** 2000-2014** 2000-2014** * Primary copper, not refined copper demand, which is above 20Mt this year, but includes scrap ** Compound annual growth rate Evolution of copper grade 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Industry weighted average Cu grade (%) Source: Wood Mackenzie 2013 Cost Service - 25% 2013 7 2015, Rio Tinto, All Rights Reserved In the absence of new discoveries, average head-grade will progressively decline exploration spend and discovery rate Significant mineral discoveries & expenditures (excluding bulks) 8 Source: Discoveries - MinEx Consulting February 2014 ; Expenditures - SNL Metals & Mining February 2015 *Significant defined as >100 Koz Au, >10Kt Ni, >100Kt Cu equiv, 250Kt Zn+Pb, >5 Moz Ag, >5kt U3O8 Caution: Incomplete discovery data in recent years 0 50 100 150 200 0 5 10 15 20 25 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 Number of discoveries Estimated worldwide exploration expenditure (US$B) Estimated worldwide exploration expenditure (US$B) Discoveries Expenditures Number of Discoveries 2015, Rio Tinto, All Rights Reserved 2014 estimated spend: US$B11 9 2015, Rio Tinto, All Rights Reserved exploration spend continues to decline Industry context Australia 2015, Rio Tinto, All Rights Reserved 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 $0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Metres drilled; new deposits Metres drilled.
6 Existing deposits Expenditures Expenditures (real US$B) Drilled metres on existing (brownfield) and new (greenfield) projects - All mineral commodities Expenditures * 2014 Expenditure & metres drilled estimate based on H1 2014 results Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Metres drilled (millions) 2014 estimated spend: US$ exploration Industry 10 2015, Rio Tinto, All Rights Reserved Risks and value just like other R&D sectors Source: Stevens and Burley, Plotting the rocket of radical innovation, 2003 3,000 raw ideas 300 ideas submitted 125 small projects 9 early stage developments 4 major developments launches 1 success Number of ideas Stage of new business Development process 100% of targets of targets Target Generation Target Testing Project of Merit Order of Magnitude Area Selection Universal industrial success curve exploration process exploration is similar to generic R&D, as only around 1 in 1,000 prospects becomes a mine 11 2015, Rio Tinto.
7 All Rights Reserved exploration Accountability Target Generation Target Testing Project of Merit Order of Magnitude Area Selection Discovery Pre Feasibility Feasibility Product Group Accountability 100% of targets < of targets exploration on an industry-wide basis is a high-risk activity Success - the creation of value -demands ongoing rigorous testing and prioritisation of opportunities Getting the process right requires technical expertise, high-quality management and rigorous prioritisation Mine & Process Discovery production 0yrs ~10yrs ~25yrs Timeline The key to value creation is rigorous opportunity prioritisation exploration pays its way - Centrally Controlled exploration costs over the last 10 years are more than offset by divestments prior to Decision to Mine Acquisition cost calculated based on publically declared transaction value grossed up for whole Tier 1 orebody based on percentage ownership.
8 Central exploration costs are Centrally Controlled exploration costs net of Sepon, Kintyre, PRC and Chapudi divestment proceeds (after tax) Anglo American investment in Amapa and Minas Rio, Lundin acquisition of Tenke based on 20 day VWAP as per 11 Apr 07 announcement, Vale investment in Zagota and Simandou North, Marubeni acquisition of stake in Esperanza and El Tesoro, Areva acquisition of Uramin Inc., BHPB and Mitsubishi acquisition of New Saraji, ARMZ acquisition of Uranium One, China Railway Materials Commercial Corp. investment in Tonkolili, Vale acquisition of PRC/Regina, BHPB acquisition of Saskatchewan Potash, 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Athabasca Potash (2010) Hathor (2012) Potassio Rio Colorado (2009) Tonkolili (2010) New Saraji (2008) Trekkopje (2007) Uranium One (2013) Riversdale (2011) Esperanza Tesoro (2008) Simandou N/Zogota (2010) Tenke Fungurume (2007) Minas Rio (2008) US$b US$b Tier 1 Acquisition Cost RTX Avg Net Discovery Cost 12 2015, Rio Tinto, All Rights Reserved From ~2010 Big data & the Cloud emerge as key drivers Early 1990 s Useful GPS for positioning & communication arrives 1970 s Remote sensing & airborne geophysics takes off 1950 s Prospector led discovery dominated until late 1950 s* 1960 s Role of Plate Tectonics and understanding mineral systems emerged * Gold prospectors in Australia doing it the old-fashioned way in 1851.
9 (Three Lions/Getty Images) 1950 s -1960 s 1990 s 2000 s 2010 - onwards 1970 s 1980 s 1980 s The PC arrives, computing in the field now possible 13 2015, Rio Tinto, All Rights Reserved The role of technology is evolving Global discovery trends 0 500 1000 1500 2000 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Geophysics Geophysics + Geochem Geochemistry Extrapolated from Known Mineralisa9on Geological Mapping Conceptual/Geological Visual Prospector Other Note: Base Metal deposits >100kt Cu, >250 kt Zn+Pb, >10 kt Ni Excludes satellite deposits within existing Camps Global discovery trends Depth of cover and discovery method Prospect-scale base metal discoveries in the World: 1900-2013 14 2015, Rio Tinto, All Rights Reserved Source: MinEx Consulting February 2014 Over time we are exploring under progressively deeper cover Depth of Cover (m) >5 MtCu Porphyries 10My 450My Cumula/ve Dura/on of Subduc/on <5 MtCu Porphyries Distribution of known porphyry copper deposits 15 2015, Rio Tinto, All Rights Reserved Known deposits are disproportionately located in developed jurisdictions Digitising the old business 16 2015, Rio Tinto, All Rights Reserved Rio Tinto exploration archives Government archives 4D Visualisation / Interpretation New technologies 1001010 100100101 10010101001001 1001010 100100101 10010101001001 1001010 100100101 10010101001001 1001010 100100101 10010101001001 1001010 100100101 10010101001001 1001010 100100101 10010101001001 1001010 100100101 10010 Rio Tinto discoveries - 2000 to 2014 Majority of Rio Tinto discoveries since 2000 are outside the OECD 2015, Rio Tinto, All Rights Reserved 17 Saskatchewan 2012, potash Eagle 2004, nickel** Resolution 2002, copper La Granja 2005, copper Amargosa 2011.
10 Bauxite Potasio Rio Colorado 2000, potash* Simandou 2004, iron ore Bunder, 2008, diamonds Mutamba 2008, mineral sands Jadar 2009, borate/lithium Sulawesi 2008, nickel laterite** Caliwingina 2005, iron ore Yandi Braid 2014, iron ore Aluminium Copper Diamonds & Minerals Energy Iron Ore Developed countries Developing countries *sold to Vale in 2009 **sold to Lundin in 2013 **sold in 2014 65 year track record of greenfield discovery success 1947 Canada Lac Allard Ilmenite Kennecott 1953 Canada Elliot Lake Uranium RTZ 1955 Australia Weipa Bauxite Zinc Corporation 1956 South Africa Palabora Copper RTZ 1960 Turkey Kirka Borates US Borax 1962 Australia Tom Price Iron Ore CZP 1968 Namibia R ssing Uranium RTZ 1970 Australia Tarong (QLD) Coal CRAE 1972 Brazil Paragominas Bauxite RTZ 1979 Australia Argyle Diamonds CRAE 1982 Brazil Moro de Ouro Gold RTZ 1983 PNG Lihir Gold Kennecott 1986 Australia Kintyre Uranium CRAE 1996 Canada Diavik Diamonds KEX 2002 USA Resolution Copper RTX 2004 Guinea Simandou Iron Ore RTX 2008 India Bunder Diamonds RTX 2008 Indonesia Sulawesi Nickel RTX 2008 Mozambique Mutamba Ilmenite RTX 1960 USA Seirrita Copper Kennecott 1955 Australia Mary Kathleen Uranium RTMA 1964 PNG Panguna Copper CRAE 1968 PNG OK Te d i Copper Kennecott 1972 South Africa Richards Bay Ilmenite RTZ 1977 Indonesia Kelian Gold CRAE 1984 Indonesia Kaltim Prima Coal CRAE 1990 Australia Century Lead-Zinc CRAE 1996 Spain Las Cruces Copper RTX 2000 Argentina PRC Potash RTX 2009 Serbia Jadar Lithium RTX 2005 Australia Caliwingina Iron Ore RTX 2005 Peru La Granja Copper RTX 2007 South Africa Chapudi Coal RTX 1991 Brazil Corumba Iron ore RTZ 2011 Brazil Amargosa Bauxite RTX