Pantsuits and Combovers: Challenges and …

1 Daniel Fabricant, CEO & Exec. Director NIA-West Spring Conference May 25, 2016 Pantsuits and combovers : Challenges and opportunities for the most volatile political cycle EVER!!!! Politics, politics everywhere Puerto Rico????? Yes, the same place that brought you the Pina Colada Debt problems Next Industry Challenge brought to you PROMSEA 114th Congress House of Representatives Majority Party: Republican (246) Minority Party: Democrat (188) Speaker of the House Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin) Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-California) Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-California) Senate Majority Party: Republican (54) Minority Party.

2 Democrat (46) President Pro Tempore The Honorable Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nevada) Next Congress and a new Admin House of Representatives R majority but not as big as it is now Senate Big 4 states WI, PA, NH, IL NV Flip HELP likely Patty Murray (D-WA) Elevation of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren Donald Trump: Presumptive GOP Nominee Darling of the anti-establishment grassroots Currently the leader in the primaries and the likely Republican nominee Concerns about his inexperience in politics and general lack of tact Doesn t connect with most moderate voters, women, or minorities.

3 National Total Contributions: $ million Individual: $13,857,206 PAC: $0 Party: $58 Candidate: $43,804,727 Total Disbursements: $55,080,299 Cash On Hand: $2,408,642 *Contributions Through 4/30/2016 Donald J. Trump (R) National Total Contributions: $ million Individual: $206,025,230 PAC: $5,150 Party: $0 Candidate: $0 Total Disbursements: $201,777,405 Cash On Hand: $5,796,719 *Contributions Through 4/30/2016 Bernie Sanders (D) National Total Contributions: $ million Individual: $709,256,820 PAC: $2,281,842 Party: $1,159 Candidate: $45,785,688 Total Disbursements: $729,297,680 Cash On Hand.

4 $56,812,607 *Contributions Through 4/30/2016 All 2016 Presidential Candidates What the hell is a PAC? Video Hillary Clinton: $33,410,943 Bernie Sanders: $16,435,573 Donald J. Trump: $385,929 *Contributions Through 4/30/2016 California 2016 Presidential Candidate Contributions Thinning The Herd Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton Current front runner for the Democratic primary Massive war-chest and organization Questions about corruption Are we tired of hearing about those emails? National Total Contributions: $ million Individual: $185,564,858 PAC: $1,181,170 Party: $1,000 Candidate: $796,562 Total Disbursements: $174,101,369 Cash On Hand.

5 $30,156,932 *Contributions Through 4/30/2016 Hillary Clinton (D) Senator Bernie Sanders (Vermont) Darling of young voters Catching up to Hillary in Democratic Primary Ranking Member of Senate Budget Committee Self described Democratic Socialist, most liberal candidate in the race The State of the 2016 Election s GOP & Democratic Fields Trump v. Clinton Recent Polling Data Trump v. Clinton Recent Polling Data Democrats need a net of five seats to win control of the senate If there s a 50/50 split, as there was in early 2001, control would depend on who wins the White House, because the vice president would break the tie States with Senate Races in 2016 Republican-held seat state won by Romney in 2012 Democratic-held seat Mont.

6 Va. W .Va. Ga. Idaho Ill. Iowa Kan. K y . La. Maine Colo. Del. Mass. Mich. Minn. Miss. T exas W yo. Tenn. Okla. Ore. Ark. Alaska Hawaii Ala. Mo. Nev. Vt. Utah Fla. Ind. Ohio Md. N. Y. W is. Conn. Ariz. Pa. Wash. Calif. Neb. Republican-held seat state won by Obama in 2012 Florida: Aug. 30 Primaries for OPEN SEAT Incumbent: Republican Marco Rubio, who isn t running Primaries: Aug. 30 Democrats: Representatives Alan Grayson and Patrick Murphy Republicans: Representatives Ron DeSantis and David Jolly, developer Carlos Beruff, Lieutenant Governor Carlos Lopez-Cantera, and businessman Todd Wilcox Why watch: A true swing state, Florida went for Obama by less than 1 percentage point in the 2012 presidential election the closest margin in the nation.

7 Race ratings Cook Political Report Toss-up Rothenberg & Gonzales Toss-up Sabato s Crystal Ball Toss-up Photo credits: Lopez-Cantera from Florida website; all others from Twitter Grayson Murphy DeSantis Jolly Lopez-Cantera Wilcox Beruff Illinois: Kirk-Duckworth Battle this Fall Incumbent: Republican Mark Kirk, vying for a second term (left) Challenger: Democratic Representative Tammy Duckworth,(right) Why watch: The incumbent is a Republican in a Democratic state and the occupant of the Senate seat Obama once held.

8 Race ratings Cook Political Report Toss-up Rothenberg & Gonzales Lean Democratic (changed May 5 from Toss Up/Tilt Democrat ) Sabato s Crystal Ball Leans Democratic Photo credits: Kirk from Senate website; Duckworth from House website Nevada: Who Replaces Top Senate Democrat? Incumbent: Democratic Leader Harry Reid, who is retiring June 14 primaries may affirm heavy favorites: Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, former state attorney general backed by Reid (left) Republican Representative Joe Heck, emergency room doctor and veteran (right) Why watch: This is the Republicans best opportunity to pick up a Democratic seat.

9 Race ratings Cook Political Report Toss-up Rothenberg & Gonzales Toss-up Sabato s Crystal Ball Toss-up Photo credits: Heck from BGOV database; Masto from state attorney general website New Hampshire: Ayotte-Hassan Matchup Ahead Incumbent: Republican Kelly Ayotte (left) Challenger: Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan (right) Primaries: Sept. 13 Why watch: Obama won the state in 2012 and its voting patterns come close to mirroring the national popular vote in that election. Race ratings Cook Political Report Toss-up Rothenberg & Gonzales Toss-up/tilts Republican Sabato s Crystal Ball Toss-up Photo credits: Ayotte ; Hassan from governor s website Ohio: Portman and Strickland to Face Off Incumbent: Republican Rob Portman (left) Challenger: Former Governor Ted Strickland (right) Why watch: Typically a bellwether in presidential elections, Ohio is one of the seven states that supported Obama in 2012 and have Republican Senate seats up for grabs.

10 Portman and Strickland both are familiar faces to the electorate. Race ratings Cook Political Report Toss-up Rothenberg & Gonzales Toss-up/tilts Republican Sabato s Crystal Ball Toss-up Photo credits: Portman from Senate website; Strickland from campaign website Pennsylvania: Toomey-McGinty Race Set Incumbent: Republican Pat Toomey (left) Challenger: Katie McGinty (right), former chief of staff to Governor Tom Wolf, who won April 26 primary; she was backed by White House and Democratic campaign arm and defeated former Representative Joe Sestak Why watch: A Republican is defending a seat in a state that votes Democratic for president.