Pathways for Peace

1 FOR PEACEPATHWAYSINCLUSIVE APPROACHES TO PREVENTING VIOLENT CONFLICTINCLUSIVE APPROACHES TO PREVENTING VIOLENT CONFLICTINCLUSIVE APPROACHES TO PREVENTING VIOLENT CONFLICTINCLUSIVE APPROACHES TO PREVENTING VIOLENT CONFLICTINCLUSIVE APPROACHES TO PREVENTING VIOLENT CONFLICTINCLUSIVE APPROACHES TO PREVENTING VIOLENT CONFLICTINCLUSIVE APPROACHES TO PREVENTING VIOLENT CONFLICTINCLUSIVE APPROACHES TO PREVENTING VIOLENT CONFLICTINCLUSIVE APPROACHES TO PREVENTING VIOLENT CONFLICTINCLUSIVE APPROACHES TO PREVENTING VIOLENT CONFLICTINCLUSIVE APPROACHES TO PREVENTING VIOLENT CONFLICTINCLUSIVE APPROACHES TO PREVENTING VIOLENT CONFLICTPATHWAYS FOR PEACEINCLUSIVE APPROACHES TO PREVENTING VIOLENT CONFLICTEXECUTIVE SUMMARYP athways for PeaceInclusive Approaches to Preventing Violent ConflictExecutive SummaryThis booklet contains the executive summary drawn from the forthcoming book, Pathways for Peace : Inclusive Approaches to Preventing Violent Conflict, doi: /978-1-4648-1162-3.

2 A PDF of the final, full-length book, once published, will be available at and print copies can be ordered at Please use the final version of the book for citation, reproduction, and adaptation purposes. 2018 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: rights reservedThis volume is a result of a study conducted by the staff of the World Bank and the United Nations, based on information, data and materials that were provided to such staff members and that could not neces-sarily be processed or verified by such staff members. The United Nations and the World Bank do not guarantee the accuracy of the data collected and included in this work.

3 The designations employed and the presentation of material on any map in this work do not imply the expression of any opinion what-soever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations or the World Bank concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or , interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of the Secretary-General of the United Nations, Member States of the United Nations, or the Executive Directors of The World herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically and PermissionsThis work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution IGO license (CC BY IGO) Under the Creative Commons Attribution license, you are free to copy, distribute, transmit, and adapt this work, including for commercial purposes, under the follow-ing conditions:Attribution Please cite the work as follows: United Nations and World Bank.

4 2018. Pathways for Peace : Inclusive Approaches to Preventing Violent Conflict. Executive Summary booklet. World Bank, Washington, DC. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY IGOT ranslations If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution: This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an official World Bank translation. The World Bank shall not be liable for any content or error in this If you create an adaptation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution: This is an adaptation of an original work by The World Bank. Views and opinions expressed in the adaptation are the sole responsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by The World content The World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content con-tained within the work.

5 The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party-owned individual component or part contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties. The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you. If you wish to re-use a component of the work, it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that re-use and to obtain permission from the copyright owner. Examples of components can include, but are not limited to, tables, figures, or queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; e-mail: design: Takayo Muroga Summary iiiExecutive SummaryA surge in violent conflicts in recent years has left a trail of human suffering, displace-ment, and protracted humanitarian need.

6 In 2016, more countries experienced vio-lent conflict than at any time in nearly 30 Reported battle-related deaths in 2016 increased tenfold from the post Cold War low of 2005, and terrorist attacks and fatalities also rose sharply over the past 10 years (GTD 2017).This surge in violence afflicts both low- and middle-income countries with rela-tively strong institutions and calls into question the long-standing assumption that Peace will accompany income growth and the expectations of steady social, economic, and political advancement that defined the end of the twentieth century (Fearon 2010; Humphreys and Varshney 2004; World Economic Forum 2016). If current trends persist, by 2030 the horizon set by the international community for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) more than half of the world s poor will be living in countries affected by high levels of violence (OECD 2015).

7 The benefit of preventive action, then, seems self-evident. Indeed, the global archi-tecture for Peace and security, forged in the aftermath of World War II, is grounded in the universal commitment to save succeed-ing generations from the scourge of war (United Nations Charter, preamble). Yet the changing scope and nature of today s con-flicts pose a significant challenge to that system. With conflict today often simulta-neously subnational and transnational, sus-tained, inclusive, and targeted engagement is needed at all reality has accelerated momentum for countries at risk and for the interna-tional community to focus on improving efforts at preventing the outbreak, escala-tion, recurrence, or continuation of con-flict (UN General Assembly 2016; UN Security Council 2016).

8 Yet, at present, spending and efforts on prevention repre-sent only a fraction of the amount spent on crisis response and A shift away from managing and responding to cri-ses and toward preventing conflict sustain-ably, inclusively, and collectively can save lives and greatly reduce these for Peace : Laying the Groundwork for a New Focus on PreventionPathways for Peace : Inclusive Approaches to Preventing Violent Conflict is a joint study of the United Nations and the World Bank. The study originates from the conviction on the part of both institutions that the atten-tion of the international community needs to be urgently refocused on prevention. While the two institutions are governed by different, complementary mandates, they share a commitment, founded in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, to the prevention of conflict as a contribution to iv Executive Summarydevelopment progress.

9 As expressed in the United Nations General Assembly and Security Council resolutions on sustaining peace3 and the eighteenth replenishment of the World Bank Group s International Development study recognizes that the World Bank Group and the United Nations bring separate comparative advantages to approach the prevention of violent conflict and that they have different roles and responsibilities in the international architecture. Therefore, while a holistic framework is essential to implementing prevention, the findings and recommendations of this study do not apply to all organizations in the same study seeks to improve the way in which domestic development processes interact with security, diplomatic, justice, and human rights efforts to prevent con-flicts from becoming violent.

10 Its key audi-ences are national policy makers and staff of multilateral and regional institutions. The background research and literature reviews, including 19 case studies, were pre-pared in partnership with leading think tanks and academic institutions. Regional consultations were conducted throughout 2016 17 with policy makers, members of civil society, representatives of regional organizations, development aid organiza-tions, and donor partners in Africa, Asia, Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, and North Key Messages for PreventionThe study s findings revolve around eight key messages: Violent conflict has increased after decades of relative decline. Direct deaths in war, numbers of displaced populations, military spending, and terrorist incidents, among others, have all surged since the beginning of the century.