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Polyamide & Intermediates - OrbiChem

Polyamide & Intermediates Synthetic Fibre Raw Materials Committee Meeting at apic 2014. Pattaya, 16 May 2014. (Emma) Liu Xiang apic 2014. AGENDA. A. World PA6 Industry Changes B. China is Leading the Change C. Opportunities and Challenges D. PA66 Industry Status and Prospects Source: Tecnon OrbiChem apic 2014. WORLD CAPROLACTAM CAPABILITY vs. DEMAND. 1,000 Metric Tons 7,500. Including Confirmed 7,000 New Plants 6,500. 6,000 Effect of Unscheduled Oversupply Plant Downtime 2010-2011. 5,500. 5,000 Capability to Produce Forecast 4,500 Growth 4,000.

Polyamide & Intermediates (Emma) Liu Xiang Synthetic Fibre Raw Materials Committee Meeting at APIC 2014 Pattaya, 16 May 2014

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Transcription of Polyamide & Intermediates - OrbiChem

1 Polyamide & Intermediates Synthetic Fibre Raw Materials Committee Meeting at apic 2014. Pattaya, 16 May 2014. (Emma) Liu Xiang apic 2014. AGENDA. A. World PA6 Industry Changes B. China is Leading the Change C. Opportunities and Challenges D. PA66 Industry Status and Prospects Source: Tecnon OrbiChem apic 2014. WORLD CAPROLACTAM CAPABILITY vs. DEMAND. 1,000 Metric Tons 7,500. Including Confirmed 7,000 New Plants 6,500. 6,000 Effect of Unscheduled Oversupply Plant Downtime 2010-2011. 5,500. 5,000 Capability to Produce Forecast 4,500 Growth 4,000.

2 3,500. Growth 3,000. Growth Growth 3% Caprolactam Consumption 2,500. 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020. Source: Tecnon OrbiChem apic 2014. WORLD Polyamide 6 CONSUMPTION BY END-USE. 1,000 Metric Tons 6,000. 5,500 PA6 Resin 5,000. Staple 4,500. Growth 2013 2020 CAGR High Ten Yarn 4,000. Bulked Carpet 3,500. Textile Fibre 3,000. 2,500. 2,000 1,500. 1,000. 500. 0. 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020. Source: Tecnon OrbiChem apic 2014. CAPROLACTAM PRODUCTION COST IN ASIA.

3 Vs. CRUDE OIL PRICE. $/ton Caprolactam Fixed Costs of Cost of Production Supplying in Asia 3,500 Plants Delivery Fixed costs of 3,000 Cats & Energy Related Costs caprolactam plant Chemicals (Steam, Ammonia, 2,500. etc.). Packing, 2,000 Loading Energy 1,500 Dependant Costs 1,000. Cyclohexane 500. 0. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150. Brent Crude Oil Price $/bbl Source: Tecnon OrbiChem apic 2014. CAPROLACTAM PRODUCTION COST IN ASIA. vs. CRUDE OIL PRICE. $/ton Caprolactam Fixed Costs of Energy Related Costs Supplying (Steam, Ammonia, Plants etc.)

4 Cost of Production 4,000. 4,000 in Asia 3 4. ne 9. 3,500. 3,500. Cats & it zo 10. 8 5. Chemicals r of 1 2 6 7 2 3 Fixed Costs of 3,000. 3,000 P 6. 5 11. 10. 12 11. 1 5 8 4 6. 4. 7 Caprolactam 2 3 3 10. Packing, 8 9. 1 12 5 Plant 2 7 4 2. 2,500. 2,500 Delivery 13. 11 9 1. Loading 9. 8. 12. 6 9 12 8. 7. Shipping 7 11. 2,000. 2,000 5 6. 10 Energy 10. 4 Dependant 12 3 11. 1,500. 1,500 Costs 2 1. Cyclohexane 2008. 1,000. 1,000. 2009. 500. 500 2010. 2011. 00. 00 10 20. 10 20 30. 30 40. 40 50. 50 60. 60 70.

5 70 80. 80 90. 90 100. 100 110. 110 120. 120 130. 130 140. 140 150. 150 2012. Crude Oil Price $/bbl 2013. Source: Tecnon OrbiChem 2014. apic 2014. AGENDA. A. World PA6 Industry Changes B. China is Leading the Change C. Opportunities and Challenges D. PA66 Industry Status and Prospects Source: Tecnon OrbiChem apic 2014. CAPROLACTAM CAPACITY BY REGION. 1,000 Metric Tons 8,000. 7,000 South America S&SE Asia 6,000. East Europe 5,000. NE Asia 4,000. North America 3,000. West Europe 2,000. China 1,000. 0. 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020.

6 Source: Tecnon OrbiChem apic 2014. CHINA CAPROLACTAM SUPPLY/DEMAND. & NET TRADE. 1,000 Metric Tons 4,000. Capacity 3,500. Production 3,000. Net Import 2,500. Production 2,000 Caprolactam Net Import 1,500 CPL Domestic Production Domestic Production 1,000. 500. 0. 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025. Source: Tecnon OrbiChem apic 2014. CHINA CAPROLACTAM SUPPLY/DEMAND. & NET TRADE. Highest competitive intensity is predicted in China by 2016 where operating rates could fall below 70%, with caprolactam margins fluctuating closely to cost Overseas caprolactam surplus faces limited demand in China, with some capacity closure possibly Recovery in operating rate after 2016 is largely influenced by lower rates of capacity addition after 2017 as projects are not yet conclusive.

7 But new capacities are needed from 2020, if capacity addition stops from 2017. Source: Tecnon OrbiChem apic 2014. CHINA / TAIWAN PA6 INDUSTRY. Heilongjian g Jilin Xinjiang Liaoning Gansu Inner Beijing Mongolia HebeiTianjin Ningxia Qinhai Shanxi Shandong Shaanxi Henan Jiangsu Tibet Anhui Sichuan Hubei Shanghai China Top 3. Zhejiang Bases Jiangxi Hunan Guizhou Fujian an Yunnan iw Guangxi Guangdong Ta Hainan Source: Tecnon OrbiChem apic 2014. CHINA PA6 POLYMER CAPACITY CHANGE. Capacity in China boomed in the past 5 years, with the trend continuing, 2007 total:1120 ktpa, 2013 total: 2295 ktpa, 2018 total: 3760 ktpa Large spinning chip polymer producers are emerging in Fujian province ( LiHeng, JinJiang), driven by need of upward integration.

8 Fujiang Province will be the biggest PA6 polymer production base. 1,000 Metric Tons 1,200. 2018. 1,000. 2013. 800. 2007. 600. 400. 200. 0. ng g g ai Jin n an ei Su g Jia on n in eB. gH. Do uN. an ng ia oN. D. Fu H. eJ. an Jia Ti ng an H. Zh Lia Sh Sh ua G. Source: Tecnon OrbiChem apic 2014. CHINA / TAIWAN PA6 POLYMER CAPACITY CHANGE. Taiwan is an important contributor to China PA6 spinning industry, with half of its PA6 polymer output dedicated to China Taiwan PA6 Polymer has quality competitiveness in high speed spinning applications, however facing increasing competition from China peers 1,000 Metric Tons 1,200.

9 2018. 1,000. 2013. 800. 2007. 600. 400. 200. 0. g ng ng an ai an Jin Su n g ei on Jia in gH. eB. Do iw uN. ia an ng oN. D. Fu H. eJ. an Ta Jia ng Ti an H. Zh Lia Sh ua Sh G. Source: Tecnon OrbiChem apic 2014. CHINA / TAIWAN PA6 POLYMER CAPACITY. DISTRIBUTION. 2013 PA6 Polymer Capacity (ktpa) Number of Regional Producers 0 250 500 750 1000 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14. Taiwan Taiwan JiangSu JiangSu ZheJiang ZheJiang FuJian FuJian ShanDong ShanDong GuangDong GuangDong HuNan HuNan HeBei HeBei TianJin TianJin LiaoNing LiaoNing ShangHai ShangHai There are dispersed capacities in traditional production bases like Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shandong, with increasing competition pressure New polymer producers, such as Fujian producers, have scale economy advantage and integrated downstream spinning capacity, and try to further upward-integrate Source.

10 Tecnon OrbiChem apic 2014. CHINA PA6 POLYMER SUPPLY & DEMAND. 1,000 Metric Tons 5,000. PA6 Polymer 4,500. Capacity 4,000 Polymer Polymer Net Import Over Capacity Production 3,500. Polymer 3,000 Caprolactam Net Import Net Import 2,500 Caprolactam 2,000 Net Import Caprolactam 1,500 Domestic Caprolactam Production Production 1,000. 500. 0. 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025. Source: Tecnon OrbiChem apic 2014. CHINA PA6 POLYMER SUPPLY & DEMAND. Polymer capacity doubled during 2007-2013. 2017/2018.


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