Population Projections for Ethiopia

1 Central Statistical Agency Population Projections for Ethiopia 2007-2037 Addis Ababa July 2013 FOREWORD One of the objectives of the recently concluded Inter-Censal Population Survey was to collect up to date demographic information and inputs for Population projection, information the country cannot afford to wait for until the results of the next census are available. Consequently, the Census Commission Office approved this national and regional Population projection based on the results of the 2007 PHC; the 2000, 2005 and 2011 EDHS; and the 2012 ICPS data. The Population projection presented in this report was made for 30 years (2007-2037), fewer than three variants of future change in fertility, mortality and migration Ethiopia . The base Population for the projection was obtained from the 2007 Population and Housing Census for each of the regions and adjusted to the mid of the census year, 1 July 2007.

2 The fertility inputs that is, Total Fertility Rate, for each of the regions were derived from the three EDHS conducted in the years 2000, 2005 and 2011; 2007 PHC; and 2012 ICPS. The mortality input which is life expectancy at birth was estimated from the 2007 PHC mortality data while the migration inputs were derived from the 2012 ICPS data. All the inputs were adjusted to the base year of the projection. The SPECTRUM Computer software was adopted for the projection for 9 regions and 2 city administrations, the results of which was aggregated to obtain the national projected results corresponding to the three variants used. Assumptions were made on the future decline of fertility with reference to changes in the use of family planning methods, the gains that would be expected in life expectancy under the prevailing mortality conditions, and future trends of inter-regional migration that would result from the socio economic developments expected in future years.

3 These expected developments will surely affect the urbanization process in the country. Assumptions regarding the future trend in urban development were also made and utilized as inputs for this projection. The Census Commission Office is positive that the results of this projection will serve as a valuable input for planning and monitoring purposes by the Federal and Regional Governments and Non-Government institutions working in different sectors. The Census Commission Office is grateful to Mr. K. Narayana Unni, the ICPS Technical Adviser, for supporting the activities of the ICPS and engaging with experts of the Population Statistics Directorate in carefully selecting the necessary inputs, making assumptions and generating the Projections figures. The Office is also grateful to UNFPA for the financial and material support in recruiting the Technical Adviser and organizing a consultation workshop with stakeholders and academia which helped to obtain valuable suggestions and recommendations for this projection.

4 Samia Zekaria Addis Ababa, Member and Secretary July 2013 Population Census Commission ii Contents i Chapter 1: INTRODUCTION .. 1 Chapter 2: BASE Population .. 3 Chapter 3: PROJECTION OF FERTILITY .. 5 Base level estimates .. 5 Projecting Fertility Levels .. 8 Chapter 4: PROJECTION OF MORTALITY .. 17 Sources of data .. 17 Method of projection and projected expectation of life .. 18 Chapter 5: MIGRATION .. 21 Sources of data .. 21 Chapter 6: PROJECTION OF URBAN Population .. 24 Chapter 7: PROJECTED Population .. 28 Annexure 1: Ta b l e s .. 32 Annexure 2: Minutes of Expert Consultation .. 168 iii List of Tables Chapter 2: BASE Population Table : Unsmoothed and Smoothed Population ('000s) at country level, 2007.

5 4 Chapter 3: PROJECTION OF FERTILITY Table : Estimated TFR from Data Collected In 2007 Census and Demographic and Health Surveys, ICPS, 2012 and Confidence Limits for DHS Estimates .. 6 Table : Estimated levels of Contraceptive Prevalence, 2000-2011 .. 7 Table : Projected Levels of CPR and TFR 2010-2040 .. 9 Table : Projected Fertility levels under Three Different Assumptions .. 14 Table : Age Pattern of Fertility, DHS 2000, 2011, Census 2007 and ICPS 2012 .. 15 Chapter 4: PROJECTION OF MORTALITY Table : Estimates of Expectation Of Life at Birth, Census 2007 and ICPS, 2012 .. 18 Table : UN Model of Life Expectancy Improvement during a Five Year Period .. 19 Chapter 5: MIGRATION Table : In-migrants, Out-migrants and Net-migrants by Region among All Migrants and Recent Migrants, ICPS 2012 .. 22 Table : Mid-year Population 2007 and Estimated Number of Migrants in the First Year (2007-08).

6 23 Chapter 6: PROJECTION OF URBAN Population Table : Proportion Urban, Growth Rates and URGD, 1994-2007 .. 25 Table Percentage of Urban Population in 2007 and Projected Percentages, 2012-37 .. 27 Chapter 7: PROJECTION RESULTS Table : Projected Population (In '000s) Of Ethiopia by Variant and Urban Population , 2007-37 .. 28 Table Age Distribution of the Base Population , 2007 and the Projected Population , 2037 .. 29 iv ANNEXURE 1 Table Base Year Population (in thousands) by Sex and Age Group, Country Total: July 1, 2007 .. 32 Table Base Year Population (in thousands) by Sex and Age Group, Tigray Region: July 1, 2007 .. 33 Table Base Year Population (in thousands) by Sex and Age Group, Afar Region: July 1, 2007 .. 34 Table Base Year Population (in thousands) by Sex and Age Group, Amhara Region: July 1, 2007.

7 35 Table Base Year Population (in thousands) by Sex and Age Group, Oromia Region: July 1, 2007 .. 36 Table Base Year Population (in thousands) by Sex and Age Group, Somali Region: July 1, 2007 .. 37 Table Base Year Population (in thousands) by Sex and Age Group, Benshangul-Gumuz Region: July 1, 2007 .. 38 Table Base Year Population (in thousands) by Sex and Age Group, SNNP Region: July 1, 2007 .. 39 Table Base Year Population (in thousands) by Sex and Age Group, Gambella Region: July 1, 2007 .. 40 Table Base Year Population (in thousands) by Sex and Age Group, Harari Region: July 1, 2007 .. 41 Table Base Year Population (in thousands) by Sex and Age Group, Addis Ababa: July 1, 2007 .. 42 Table Base Year Population (in thousands) by Sex and Age Group, Dire Dawa: July 1, 2007.

8 43 Table Mortality Inputs Used for the Projection, All Regions: 2008-2037 .. 44 Table Projected Total, Urban and Rural Population Size (in thousands) by Sex in Single Year, Low Variant, Country Total: 2008-2037 .. 45 Table Projected Total, Urban and Rural Population Size (in thousands) by Sex in Single Year, Medium Variant, Country Total: 2008-2037 .. 46 v Table Projected Total, Urban and Rural Population Size (in thousands) by Sex in Single Year, High Variant, Country Total: 2008-2037 .. 47 Table Projected Total, Urban and Rural Population Size (in thousands) by Sex in Single Year, Medium Variant, Tigray: 2008-2037 .. 48 Table : Projected Total, Urban and Rural Population Size (in thousands) by Sex in Single Year, Medium Variant, Afar: 2008-2037 .. 49 Table : Projected Total, Urban and Rural Population Size (in thousands) by Sex in Single Year, Medium Variant, Amhara: 2008-2037.

9 50 Table : Projected Total, Urban and Rural Population Size (in thousands) by Sex in Single Year, Medium Variant, Oromia: 2008-2037 .. 51 Table : Projected Total, Urban and Rural Population Size (in thousands) by Sex in Single Year, Medium Variant, Somali Region: 2008-2037 .. 52 Table : Projected Total, Urban and Rural Population Size (in thousands) by Sex in Single Year, Medium Variant, Benshangul-Gumuz: 2008-2037 .. 53 Table : Projected Total, Urban and Rural Population Size (in thousands) by Sex in Single Year, Medium Variant, SNNP: 2008-2037 .. 54 Table : Projected Total, Urban and Rural Population Size (in thousands) by Sex in Single Year, Medium Variant, Gambella: 2008-2037 .. 55 Table : Projected Total, Urban and Rural Population Size (in thousands) by Sex in Single Year, Medium Variant, Harari: 2008-2037.

10 56 Table : Projected Total, Urban and Rural Population Size (in thousands) by Sex in Single Year, Medium Variant, Addis Ababa: 2008-2037 .. 57 Table : Projected Total, Urban and Rural Population Size (in thousands) by Sex in Single Year, Medium Variant, Dire Dawa: 2008-2037 .. 58 Tables : Projected Population Size of Ethiopia by Five Year Age Group, Sex, Urban and Rural: Medium Variant: 1 July 2008 .. 59 Tables : Projected Population Size of Ethiopia by Five Year Age Group, Sex, Urban and Rural: Medium Variant: 1 July 2012 .. 60 Tables Projected Population Size of Ethiopia by Five Year Age Group, Sex, Urban and Rural: Medium Variant: 1 July 2017 .. 61 vi Tables Projected Population Size of Ethiopia by Five Year Age Group, Sex, Urban and Rural: Medium Variant: 1 July 2022.