PREPARED BY: DR DIRK A PRINSLOO - Waterfall

1 Waterfall Business Estate midrand 1 09v 4078 PREPARED BY: DR DIRK A PRINSLOO Waterfall BUSINESS ESTATE, midrand FOR ATTERBURY Waterfall INVESTMENT COMPANY FEBRUARY 2010 2 URBAN STUDIES Waterfall Business Estate, midrand , 2010 Tel. (011) 888-2169 E-mail: CONTENT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. BACKGROUND .. 8 2. RESEARCH OBJECTIVES .. 8 3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY .. 9 Desk survey .. 9 Field survey .. 9 4. SOUTH AFRICAN PROPERTY MARKET .. 12 General economic indicators for South Africa.

2 12 Economy/GDP per Province .. 15 5. POPULATION, DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE - MACRO LEVEL .. 18 Total Gauteng Population and Projected Growth .. 18 6. RETAIL SUPPLY IN SOUTH AFRICA .. 21 Geographical Distribution of Shopping Centre Retail Space .. 22 Gauteng retail market .. 23 7. OFFICE MARKET .. 25 National office market in the major metropolitan areas .. 25 Johannesburg office market take-up rates .. 29 8. RESIDENTIAL MARKET .. 31 House prices in Johannesburg vs. the rest of South Africa.

3 31 Growth nodes in Gauteng .. 32 9. BROADER midrand AREA .. 35 Population numbers, growth and projections .. 35 Socio-economic and demographic profile .. 40 Socio-economic and demographic profile of the more affluent residents in the western side of midrand : .. 42 Socio-economic and demographic profile of the below average households in the eastern side of midrand : .. 43 Building plans approved and completed in midrand :2000-2009 .. 44 Retail Supply in the midrand area .. 48 Existing retail facilities in the area.

4 48 Shopping behaviour: More affluent western side of midrand .. 50 Shopping behaviour: Below average suburbs midrand East .. 50 Rental levels .. 51 Industrial Developments .. 52 Office market in midrand and adjacent office nodes .. 57 House prices and sales in the area .. 60 Single residential units .. 60 Multiple units .. 64 10. NODAL DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE IN GREATER JOHANNESBURG .. 69 Centurion .. 69 Fourways .. 74 Sunninghill/Rivonia .. 78 URBAN STUDIES Waterfall Business Estate, midrand , 2010 Tel.

5 (011) 888-2169 E-mail: 11. MARKET ATTRACTIVENESS SCORE .. 82 Age of the surrounding nodes .. 83 12. NEW DEVELOPMENTS .. 84 13. SITE EVALUATION .. 89 Meso environment/broader area .. 89 Office site evaluation .. 89 Retail site evaluation .. 90 Industrial site evaluation .. 92 Waterfall Business Estate Master Locality Plan .. 93 14. MARKET POTENTIAL FOR VARIOUS LAND USE CATEGORIES .. 95 Residential development .. 96 Retail development .. 99 Industrial development .. 100 Office development.

6 101 Other activities as part of a New Town development .. 101 15. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS .. 103 4 URBAN STUDIES Waterfall Business Estate, midrand , 2010 Tel. (011) 888-2169 E-mail: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Attributes Comments Macro Economic Indicators GDP Slow recovery Time lag. Will grow at by 2012. Interest Rates Down by Will remain in this range for next 3 years. Inflation First time in 51 months within government target. Currently down from to Gauteng Market GDP Economic barometer still negative.

7 Recovery expected from end of Q2 2009. GDP Contribution 33% of national economy GDP Sectors Finance, manufacturing and retail trade Economic indicators Growth, construction and financial services indices are still negative while electricity and manufacturing are positive. Population 2010 - 10,4 million people 2025 12,7 million people 2050 17,4 million people Johannesburg Tshwane/Pretoria midrand 2008 3,4 million people 2008 2 million people 2008 - 400 000 people Socio economic profile Johannesburg has the highest socio-economic and demographic profile (46% in LSM 7-10).

8 Retail Market Supply 8% growth in 2004-7 with 12% currently (time lag since 2006). Expected to be down to 5-6%. Gauteng represents 45% of all the shopping centre space in South Africa. This is higher than the 33% contribution made to the GDP by Gauteng; Gauteng represents 64% of all the shopping centres with a size of >50 000m . Office Market of all A and B grade office space in South Africa, Johannesburg represents 59% compared to 17% in Pretoria and 14% in Cape Town; vacancy levels in the whole of Johannesburg is currently at ; midrand represents the third largest office node in Greater Johannesburg after Johannesburg CBD and Sandton.

9 Broader midrand Market Population Numbers and growth there is currently 105 000 households living in the midrand area; with a 2% growth rate this figure could increase to almost 115 000 households in 2015. has a dual socio-economic profile with people in informal houses and affluent households forming part of golf and security estates. This will clearly be highlighted in the next section. midrand building plans very good residential growth, a consistent growth in the market supply of office space, a lower supply of industrial space because of electricity shortage and a low take up rate for retail space.

10 Retail supply in midrand In total almost 150 000m of shopping space is located within 5 km from midrand Central; These retail facilities consist of a number of local and smaller convenience centres; The Boulders is the largest at almost 50 000m , mainly catering for customers living to the east of midrand . URBAN STUDIES Waterfall Business Estate, midrand , 2010 Tel. (011) 888-2169 E-mail: 1 Annual take-up rates once the area has been established as an office address could vary between 20 000m and 50 000m.