Transcription of Private Equity Market Update - CAIA
1 Private Equity Market UpdateJoseph Borda, CAIA Senior VP, Research & Data Operations4/15/212 BangaloreSingaporeManilaHong Kong Guangzhou ChicagoSan FranciscoTokyoNew YorkSydneyLondonFrankfurtDubaiAbout PreqinData, solutions, and insights for alternative assets in s AgendaPrivate Equity in 2020 How did the industry fair in 2020?Opportunities & Investor Appetite in 2021 Where are Investors planning to allocate capital in H1 2021 & beyond?The Future of Alternatives 2025 Outlook and Projections4 Private Equity OverviewAUM, Dry Powder, Fundraising & Deal Volume5 Private Capital AUM Continues to Climb01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,00 08,0009,000 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Sep-20 Assets under Management ($bn) Private Capital Assets under Management by Asset Class, 2000 -Q3 2020 Private EquityReal EstatePrivate DebtInfrastructureNatural +93%6 Private Equity AUM Doubling Since 20157521,5911,6333,45901,0002,0003,0004, 0005,0006,000 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Sep-20 Assets under Management ($bn) Private Equity Assets under Management, 2000 -Q3 2020 Dry Powder ($bn)Unrealized Value ($bn)
2 7 AUM Increase Driven by North America & Asia-Focused Vehicles01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Sep-20 Assets under Management ($bn) Private Equity Assets under Management by Primary Geographic Focus, 2000 -Q3 2020 North AmericaEuropeAsiaRest of World8 Asia-Focused AUM Experiences Exponential Growth Since 20153884686398801,1631, Private Equity Assets Under Management, 2000 Q3 20209 Driven by Investor & Fund Manager Demand & Opportunities10%7%23%4%8%55%25%37%8%24%7 %23%17%11%38%35%50%6%0%10%20%30%40%50%60 %South AmericaCentral AmericaCentral & EasternEuropeAfricaMiddle EastChinaIndiaSoutheast AsiaOther EmergingMarketsProportion of RespondentsEmerging Markets that Will Present the Best Opportunities in 2021: Investors vs. Fund ManagersInvestorsFund ManagersSource:Preqin Investor and Fund Manager Surveys, November 202010 Buyout & Venture Vehicles Account for +76% Market Share2,4851,36181938501,0002,0003,0004,0 005,0006,000 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Sep-20 Assets under Management ($bn) Private Equity Assets under Management by Strategy, 2000 -Q3 2020 BuyoutVenture CapitalGrowthPE Other11 Decrease in Funds Closed by ~20% Compared to ,0001,5002,0002,5003,0002001200220032004 2005200620072008200920102011201220132014 2015201620172018201920202021 YTDA ggregate Capital Raised ($bn)No.
3 Funds ClosedYear of Final CloseGlobal Private Equity Fundraising, 2001 -2021 YTDNo. of Funds ClosedAggregate Capital Raised ($bn)12 North America & Asia-Focused Funds Saw the Largest Decreases05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003, 5002001200220032004200520062007200820092 0102011201220132014201520162017201820192 0202021 YTDNo. Funds ClosedYear of Final ClosePrivate Equity Funds Closed by Primary Geographic Focus, 2001 -2021 YTDN orth AmericaEuropeAsiaRest of World13 Capital Continues to Flow to Top Tier Managers & Funds7%7%6%5%6%6%5%4%4%3%3%29%24%21%22%2 4%21%21%19%17%16%13%21%20%15%17%15%17%15 %14%12%15%13%23%22%20%22%21%16%21%19%20% 25%31%20%27%38%33%34%40%37%43%48%42%41%0 %10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20112012 201320142015201620172018201920202021 YTDLess than $100mn$100-499mn$500-999mn$ $ +Source:Preqin ProPercentage of Aggregate Capital Raised by Fund Size, 2011 2021 YTD14 Highest Average Proportion of Target Size Achieved at 105%30%29%29%24%23%22%21%24%20%16%25%25% 23%25%27%29%30%36%38%45%22%22%22%23%22%2 5%25%21%22%21%13%11%14%19%20%16%18%14%17 %15%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%201 1201220132014201520162017201820192020 Proportion of Funds ClosedYear of Final ClosePrivate Equity Funds Closed by Proportion of Target Size Achieved, 2011 -2020 Less than 50%50-99%100%101-124%125% or More102%100%103%105%80%85%90%95%100%105% 110%024681012141618202011201220132014201 520162017201820192020 Average Proportion of Target Size AchievedAverage Time Spent in Market (Months)Year of Final ClosePrivate Equity Fundraising Success, 2011 -2020 Average Time Spent in Market (Months)
4 Average Proportion of Target Size Achieved15 Private Equity -Backed Deals010020030040050060001,0002,0003,000 4,0005,0006,0007,0008,000201120122013201 42015201620172018201920202021 YTDA ggregate Deal Value ($bn) No. of Deals Global Private Equity -Backed Deals, 2011 -2021 YTDNo. of DealsAggregate Deal Value ($bn)Source: Preqin Pro16 Private Equity -Backed Deals by Sector0100200300400500600201120122013201 4201520162017201820192020 Aggregate Deal Value ($bn)Aggregate Value of Private Equity -Backed Deals by Industry, 2011 -2020 Business ServicesConsumer DiscretionaryEnergy & UtilitiesFinancial & Insurance ServicesHealthcareIndustrialsInformation TechnologyRaw Materials & Natural ResourcesReal EstateTelecoms & MediaSource: Preqin Pro17 Opportunities & Investor Appetite18 Record Number of Funds in Market4,62789805001,0001,5002,0002,5003, 0003,5004,0004,5005,000 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-202021 YTDP rivate Equity Funds in Market , 2012 -2021No.
5 Of Funds RaisingAggregate Capital Targeted ($bn)Source: Preqin Pro19 North America + Asia Account for ~74% by Aggregate Target Size 0501001502002503003500500100015002000250 03000 BuyoutVentureCapitalGrowthPE Fund ofFundsPESecondariesTurnaroundPE OtherPrivate Equity Funds in Market by Primary Strategy, Q1 2021No. of FundsAggregate Target Size ($bn)05010015020025030035040045005001000 1500200025003000 North AmericaEuropeAsiaRest of WorldPrivate Equity Funds in Market by Primary Geographic Focus, Q1 2021No. of FundsAggregate Target Size ($bn)20 Secondaries Fundraising Skyrocketed in 2020010203040506070800102030405060200020 0120022003200420052006200720082009201020 11201220132014201520162017201820192020 Aggregate Capital Raised ($bn)No. of Funds ClosedYear of Final CloseGlobal Private Equity Secondaries Fundraising, 2000 -2020 No. of Funds ClosedAggregate Capital Raised ($bn)Source:Preqin Pro21 Secondaries Net IRRs vs. Standard Private Equity Strategies0%5%10%15%20%25%20002001200220 0320042005200620072008200920102011201220 132014201520162017 Median Net IRR since InceptionVintage YearMedian Net IRRs by Vintage Year: Private Equity Secondaries vs.
6 All Private Equity Private Equity SecondariesAll Private Equity22 Investors Seek Exposure to Private Equity for Diversification & High Absolute Returns 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%Diversificatio nHigh Risk-AdjustedReturnsHigh Absolute ReturnsLow Correlation to OtherAsset ClassesInflation HedgeReliable Income StreamReduce Portfolio VolatilityPrivate EquityPrivate DebtHedge FundsReal EstateInfrastructureNatural Resources0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%0%5 %10%15%20%Risk -Standard Deviation Net IRRR eturn -Median Net IRRP rivate Capital: Risk/Return by Asset Class (Vintages 2008-2017)*InfrastructureNatural ResourcesPrivate DebtPrivate EquityReal Estate23 Median Net IRRs by Fund Type0%5%10%15%20%25%20082009201020112012 20132014201520162017 Median Net IRR since InceptionVintage YearPrivate Equity : Median Net IRRs by Fund Type and Vintage YearBuyoutVenture CapitalGrowthFund of FundsSecondariesSource: Preqin Pro. Most Up-to-Date Data24 Investors Remain Confident & Optimistic 37%34%48%51%46%52%48%51%53%42%34%34%39%3 5%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Priva te EquityVenture CapitalPrivate DebtHedge FundsReal EstateInfrastructureNatural ResourcesProportion of RespondentsInvestor Expectation for Alternative Assets Performance in the Next 12 Months Compared to the Previous 12 MonthsWill Perform About the SameWill Perform BetterWill Perform WorseSource: Preqin Investor Survey,November 202025 Planning to Commit More Capital to Private Equity 44%36%47%26%36%54%31%46%50%40%47%45%38%4 5%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Priva te EquityVenture CapitalPrivate DebtHedge FundsReal EstateInfrastructureNatural ResourcesProportion of RespondentsInvestors' Expected Capital Commitments to Alternative Assets in the Next 12 Months Compared to the Previous 12 MonthsMore CapitalSame Amount of CapitalLess CapitalSource.
7 PreqinInvestor Survey,November 202026 More Investors are Targeting Direct Investments & Co-investment Opportunities 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%Pooled Single-Manager FundsCo-InvestmentsPooled Funds of FundsDirect InvestmentsSeparate AccountsOpen-Ended*Proportion of RespondentsPrivate Equity Fund Structures Targeted by Investors in the Next 12 Months, 2018 -2020 Nov-18 Nov-19 Nov-20 Source: Preqin Investor Surveys, November2018 -202027 Buyout, Growth & Secondaries Seen as Opportunities0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%Vent ure Capital Venture DebtVenture Capital SeedVenture Capital Late StageFund of FundsVenture Capital Early StageBuyout Large to MegaVenture Capital GeneralSecondariesGrowthBuyout Small to Mid-MarketProportion of RespondentsInvestor Views on the Fund Types Presenting the Best Opportunities in Private Equity , 2018 -2020 Nov-18 Nov-19 Nov-20 Source: Preqin Investor Surveys, November2018 -202028 The Future of Alternatives29 Projecting AUM of $17tn as of under Management ($tn)Alternative Assets under Management and Forecast,2010 -2025*30 Private Equity AUM to Reach $9bn5,1075,9026,8227,8859,11401000200030 0040005000600070008000900010000201020112 0122013201420152016201720182019202020212 022202320242025 Assets under Management ($bn) Private Equity Assets under Management and Forecast, 2010 -2025* 31 Overwhelming Majority of Investors Plan to Increase Exposure to Alternatives23%16%8%10%15%6%56%51%27%41% 51%29%17%25%34%33%24%38%0%10%20%30%40%50 %60%70%80%90%100% Private EquityPrivate DebtHedge FundsReal EstateInfrastructureNatural ResourcesProportion of Respondents that Invest in the Asset ClassInvestors' Plans for Their Allocation to Alternatives by 2025 by Asset Class Will Increase SignificantlyWill IncreaseWill Stay the SameWill DecreaseWill Decrease SignificantlySource.
8 Preqin Investor Survey, August202032 Private Equity Outperforms Over the Longer TermPrEQInQuarterly Index vs. Public Markets33 The Continued Rise of ESG8%29%28%20%13%3%Investor Views on the Importance of ESG in Investment DecisionsExtremely ImportantConsiderably ImportantModerately ImportantAverage ImportanceLow ImportanceNo Importance43%36%20%1%1%Investor Views on the Change in Interest in/Demand for Their Organizations' ESG Capabilities or Strategies over the Past 12 MonthsSignificant IncreaseModest IncreaseNo ChangeModest DecreaseSignificant Decrease34 Investor Demand and Industry Standards Driving ESG Demands78%67%36%31%27%26%14%25%26%0%10%2 0%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%Investor DemandIndustry Standards/Best PracticesInvestment RiskFiduciary ResponsibilityMoral ImperativeRegulatory DemandsOutperformanceCompetition with Fund ManagersPolitical PressureProportion of RespondentsInvestor Views on Why Fund Managers Establish an ESG Policy30%42%32%45%17%40%31%40%37%38%34%4 2%0%25%50%Enhanced RiskManagementDemand from LPsPotential for
9 ValueCreationEthicalConsiderationsRegula tionBestPractice/Competitive AdvantageProportion of RespondentsFund Manager Views on What Is Driving the Adoption of ESG Monitoring and Reporting, 2020 vs. 2025 2020202535 Average Size of ESG-Focused Funds Increasing991041019783820204060801001200 2004006008001,0001,2001,4002015201620172 01820192020No. of FundsAverage Fund Size ($mn)Vintage YearAverage Size of Private Capital Funds with an ESG Policy in Place by Vintage Year No. of FundsAverage Fund Size ($mn)36 Summary AUM has continued to increasedespite the turmoil and uncertainty that we experienced in 2020 Private Capital AUM stands at $8tn+ as of September 2020 Future AUM growth is to be driven by Private Equity and Private Debt Projecting upwards of $17tn in 2025 Investors remain confidentand committedto Alternatives over the longer term Asia growing in terms of opportunities and AUM Market share ESG continues to be an important factor in capital allocation investor demand and need for a competitive advantage 37 Further Borda, CAIA Senior VP, Research & Data Operations