Reality? Development: A Myth or Informa Ltd …

1 This article was downloaded by: [Professor Valentina Bondarenko]On: 28 April 2014, At: 10:52 Publisher: RoutledgeInforma Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number: 1072954 Registered office: Mortimer House, 37-41 Mortimer Street, London W1T 3JH,UKWorld Futures: The Journal ofNew Paradigm ResearchPublication details, including instructions forauthors and subscription information: to Crisis-FreeDevelopment: A Myth orReality?Valentina Bondarenkoaa Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute ofEconomics and International N. D. KondratieffFoundation, Moscow, RussiaPublished online: 18 Apr cite this article: Valentina Bondarenko (2014) Transition to Crisis-FreeDevelopment: A Myth or reality ?

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4 VALENTINABONDARENKOR ussian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Economics and International N. D. KondratieffFoundation, Moscow, RussiaThis article substantiates the thesis that the outlines of the future and present can bemade visible and comprehensible by applying a new methodology for cognitionof regularities in the human community development. This methodology made itpossible to define that there have been and are only two paradigms of the humansystem development in the entire multicentury course of the human communitydevelopment. Cycles, crises, chaos, and all negative phenomena are nothing elsebut natural products of the second, indirect paradigm of development. The newmodel of life organization at each local level is at the same time the former, firstdevelopment paradigm, based on the direct interconnection between productionand consumption of specific human beings, but raised onto the new high-techlevel.

5 Practical realization of this model is the only feasible precondition for thetransition to sustainable and crisis-free : Coordination of interests, efficiency criteria, new methodology of cognition,new model of life organization objective, specific human being, sustainable development,systemic crisis, time, two development was quite long ago that great thinkers and scientists in different parts of the globestarted to think on how to transform the world organization in order to improveecology, get rid of poverty, resolve the food problem, eliminate any possibility ofperiodically occurring wars, resolve the great mass of other problems, and havethe crises shattering all foundations of human existence be gone into the pastforever.

6 Many widely known academics focused their research on resolution ofthese most difficult problems. We were most strongly impressed by the works ofErvin Laszlo, the leading author ofGoals for Mankind. A Report to the Club ofRome on the New Horizons of Global Community(Laszlo et al. 1977). His positionAddress correspondence to Valentina Bondarenko, Russian Academy of Sciences,Institute of Economics, 32 Nakhimovsky prosp, Moscow 117218, Russia. E-mail: versions of one or more of the figures in the article can be found online by [Professor Valentina Bondarenko] at 10:52 28 April 2014 94 VALENTINA BONDARENKOis generally very close to ours, and we shall try to highlight this point here in global systemic crisis, hitting all facets of the human community s life,is becoming the ever more profound and wider in scope.

7 This fact has beenrecognized by all summits of G8, economic forums in Davos, Saint-Petersburg,and other regions of the world, and G20 summits including the latest one that tookplace on September 5 6, 2013 in Saint-Petersburg, Russia. The panic, occurringperiodically in the world markets (including the market of raw materials), everytime is generated by publication of negative data on all regions of the world ( ,the United States, Europe, and China).For example, in 2012 2013 many countries demonstrated their unstablenessand omnipresent worsening of the economic situation. In particular, Americanmarket indices were melted down by the unfavorable statistics of the labor market,where the job-generation rates lag behind the desired parameters.

8 While 200 250thousand new jobs were required to be created every month during a many-monthperiod of time, in reality the generated number was much less than needed inAugust 2013, only 169,000. Therefore the level of unemployment in the UnitedStates remains very high ( ). The growth rates of the global and economiesare slowing down, and this circumstance is being aggravated by the debt crisis inthe Euro-zone, which is moving steadily to deep s economy, too, demonstrates the slower growth rates. In April 2012,industrial production in China slowed down abruptly its annual growth rate, , was the lowest in the last three years. In the first four months of 2012investments in fixed capital grew just by , which is the worst result forChina s economy in the last 10 years, while the growth of retail trade and exportslowed down as well.

9 Investors and economists once again started to talk of thethreat of China s hard landing and to call for resolute measures that wouldstimulate economic growth. But, as experts in China s economy suggest, in orderto become an engine of global economy, the Sub-Celestial first needs to make itspeople wealthy. However, in this case China would lose its main advantage thatis, cheap , with its second largest population and tenth biggest economy in theworld, by making the stake at development of the innovation sector, also has facedthe crisis situation. In the second quarter of 2013 its Gross Domestic Product(GDP) growth rates amounted to instead the expected per year, whilethe Indian Rupee exchange rate vis-`a-vis the USD dropped to an historical min-imum.

10 Only within one month of August 2013 the Rupee went down in valueby Meanwhile, according to some expert assessments, the crisis in Indiacan catalyze a new recession in the entire world. Corruption, inflation, expensivecredit, and paralysis of authorities result in the outflow of capital and terminationof business projects. In particular, this applies to strategic sectors, where the stateactively regulates the process, while in the less regulated spheres ( , IT andpharmacology) the situation is more favorable. In this sense India differs stronglyfrom China, where exactly the sectors with a strong presence of the state and useof cheap labor drive the progress of national by [Professor Valentina Bondarenko] at 10:52 28 April 2014 TRANSITION TO CRISIS-FREE DEVELOPMENT95 Another key emerging economy, Brazil, is sliding down: its growth rates asforecasted by the world s leading banks for 2013 to have been reduced to 2% oreven year 2013 continues to demonstrate deterioration of the global marketsituation, the growing crisis-ridden global climate, and the further reduction ofgrowth rates.