Reducing Carbon Emissions from Transport Projects

1 Evaluation study Independent Evaluation Department Reference Number: EKB: REG 2010-16 Evaluation Knowledge Brief July 2010 Reducing Carbon Emissions from Transport Projects ABBREVIATIONS ADB Asian Development Bank APTA American Public Transportation Association ASIF activity structure intensity fuel BMRC Bangalore Metro Rail Corporation BRT bus rapid transit CO2 Carbon dioxide COPERT Computer Programme to Calculate Emissions from Road Transport DIESEL Developing Integrated Emissions Strategies for Existing Land Transport DMC developing member country EIRR economic internal

2 Rate of return EKB evaluation knowledge brief g grams GEF Global Environment Facility GHG greenhouse gas HCV heavy commercial vehicle IEA International Energy Agency IED Independent Evaluation Department IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change kg/l kilogram per liter km kilometer kph kilometer per hour LCV light commercial vehicle LRT light rail transit m meter MJ megajoule MMUTIS Metro Manila Urban Transportation Integration study MRT metro rail transit NAMA nationally appropriate mitigation actions NH national highway NHDP National Highway Development Project NMT nonmotorized Transport NOx nitrogen oxide NPV net present value PCR

3 Project completion report PCU passenger car unit PRC People s Republic of China SES special evaluation study TA technical assistance TEEMP Transport Emissions evaluation model for Projects UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change USA United States of America V C volume to capacity VKT vehicle kilometer of travel VOC vehicle operating cost NOTE In this report, $ refers to US dollars. Key Words adb, asian development bank, greenhouse gas, Carbon Emissions , Transport , emission saving, Carbon footprint, adb Transport sector operation, induced traffic, Carbon dioxide Emissions , vehicles, roads, mrt, metro Transport Director General H.

4 Satish Rao, Independent Evaluation Department (IED) Director H. Hettige, Independent Evaluation Division 2 (IED2), IED Team Leader N. Singru, Senior Evaluation Specialist, IED2, IED Team Members R. Lumain, Senior Evaluation Officer, IED2, IED C. Roldan, Assistant Operations Evaluation Analyst, IED2, IED Independent Evaluation Department, EK-2 In preparing any evaluation report, or by making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, the Independent Evaluation Department does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. CONTENTS Page EXECUTIVE SUMMARY i I. INTRODUCTION 1 A. Objective 1 B.

5 Context 1 C. Recent Related ADB Initiatives 3 D. Why ADB Needs to Address Carbon Dioxide in Transportation 4 II. EVALUATION METHODOLOGY 6 A. Scope of the study 6 B. Methodology 7 C. Framework for Assessing Carbon Emissions from Transport Projects 9 D. Limitations of the study 11 III. KEY FINDINGS OF THE Carbon FOOTPRINT ANALYSIS 11 A. Indicative Carbon Footprint and Savings Achieved by Transport Sector Assistance 11 B. Local Pollution Reduction, Traffic Safety, and Carbon Dioxide Reduction are Correlated 17 C.

6 Construction Period Emissions 18 D. Operations Period 20 IV. IMPLICATIONS FOR ADB 35 A. Raising Awareness of Carbon Emissions 35 B. Dynamic Baselines are an Important Framework for Considering Emission Reductions 36 C. Improving ADB s Economic Analyses 36 D. Carbon Intensity Monitoring 38 E. Strategy for Carbon Emissions Mitigation 38 F. Urban Planning and Management rather than Transport Plans and Capital Projects 38 V. RECOMMENDATIONS 39 The guidelines formally adopted by the Independent Evaluation Department (IED) on avoiding conflict of interest in its independent evaluations were observed in preparing this report.

7 M. Replogle of Institute of Transportation & Development Policy; S. Gota of Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities; R. Hickman, Halcrow Group Limited; and Abatayo were the consultants. The report has been reviewed by H. Dalkmann of TRL Transport Research Laboratory, United Kingdom. To the knowledge of the management of IED, the persons preparing, reviewing, or approving this report had no conflict of interest. APPENDIXES 1. Overview of Projects Evaluated In-Depth for Carbon Dioxide Impact 44 2. Methodology for the Evaluation Knowledge Brief 45 3. Methodology for Transport Emissions Evaluation Model for Projects 46 4. Data Constraints in Carbon Emissions Measurement 75 5. Carbon Emissions Analysis of Select Project Cases 77 6.

8 Impact of Technological Improvements on Transport Project Carbon Footprint 91 7. An Induced Demand Primer 93 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Economic development is required for poverty reduction. At the same time, development could also lead to increased greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution caused by the resulting growth in vehicular traffic, energy use, and other activities. GHG pollution and local air pollution threaten to undermine development with the increasing evidence of their adverse environment and health impacts. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) with new policies supporting sustainable, low Carbon growth across Asia and the Pacific is therefore challenged to support its members in addressing these intertwined issues. Transportation is the fastest growing major contributor to global climate change, accounting for 23% of energy-related Carbon dioxide (CO2) Emissions .

9 Many experts foresee a three- to five-fold increase in CO2 Emissions from transportation in Asian countries by 2030 compared with Emissions in 2000 if no changes are made to investment strategies and policies. This is driven by the anticipated six- to eight-fold increase in the number of light-duty vehicles and a large increase in the number of trucks, which could overwhelm even the most optimistic forecasts of improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency. ADB's Strategy 2020 envisages assistance to developing member countries (DMCs) in moving their economies onto low- Carbon growth paths and to reduce the Carbon footprint of Asia's cities. ADB has the opportunity to enhance its stewardship of the environment, public health, and resources by better aligning its investments with goals for climate mitigation and adaptation.

10 This evaluation knowledge brief (EKB) provides tools and knowledge that can inform such efforts. ADB is expanding its investments in a wide array of transportation Projects that are required for economic and social development, mobility, commerce, and communications. To gauge their contribution to ADB s environmental sustainability goals, a key place to start is to better understand what aspects of ADB Projects and activities contribute to or reduce Transport -related CO2 pollution. That is the central focus of this EKB, which also offers ADB tools that could be used in the future to better monitor and evaluate its Carbon footprint in the Transport sector. These tools may be used in conjunction with other economic analysis tools that take into account costs and benefits of specific types of Transport services and their development impacts.