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Renewable Energy Market Report 2017 Summary of …

IEEJ November 2017 IEEJ2017. Renewables 2017 . Heymi Bahar IEEJ, Tokyo 31 October 2017 . IEEJ November 2017 IEEJ2017. Context Three numbers and three core global Energy challenges: million premature deaths each year can be attributed to air pollution degrees is the temperature increase under current climate pledges billion people don't have access to electricity and universal access to modern Energy remains a distant goal Renewables contribute to meeting all these challenges IEA 2017 . IEEJ November 2017 IEEJ2017. 2016 Renewables hitting new records driven by solar PV. Power capacity additions by fuel 2016. Coal Solar PV. Retirements Wind Gas Renewables 0 50 100 150 200.

© IEA 2017 Context Three numbers and three core global energy challenges: 6.5 million premature deaths each year can be attributed to air pollution 2.7 degrees is the temperature increase under current climate pledges

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1 IEEJ November 2017 IEEJ2017. Renewables 2017 . Heymi Bahar IEEJ, Tokyo 31 October 2017 . IEEJ November 2017 IEEJ2017. Context Three numbers and three core global Energy challenges: million premature deaths each year can be attributed to air pollution degrees is the temperature increase under current climate pledges billion people don't have access to electricity and universal access to modern Energy remains a distant goal Renewables contribute to meeting all these challenges IEA 2017 . IEEJ November 2017 IEEJ2017. 2016 Renewables hitting new records driven by solar PV. Power capacity additions by fuel 2016. Coal Solar PV. Retirements Wind Gas Renewables 0 50 100 150 200.

2 Additions (GW). Renewables breaking an all-time record accounting for two thirds of global net capacity additions;. For the first time solar PV becoming the global leader in net capacity growth IEA 2017 . IEEJ November 2017 IEEJ2017. Renewable policies spurring more competition Renewable capacity growth by type of policy defining remuneration levels 100%. 90%. 80%. 70% Competitively set 60%. 50%. 40% Administratively set 30%. 20%. 10%. 0%. 2016 2017 -22 2017 -22 (excluding China). Competitive tenders with long-term contracts will drive almost half of new capacity growth globally;. the timing of policy transition in China may accelerate further this trend IEA 2017 .

3 IEEJ November 2017 IEEJ2017. Competition driving costs down Wind and solar PV average LCOEs and auction results by commissioning date USD 2016/MWh 400. Onshore wind average 350 auction price 300 Solar PV average auction price 250. 200 Solar PV - utility scale LCOE. 150. Onshore wind LCOE. 100. 50 Japan FIT - PV-utility 0. 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022. Price discovery through competitive auctions effectively reduces costs along the entire value chain IEA 2017 . IEEJ November 2017 IEEJ2017. Offshore wind: bigger turbines, fewer foundations = lower generation costs Offshore wind average turbine size and Offshore wind auction results foundation per MW installed EUR 2016/MWh MW Denmark 8 180.

4 (contract price). 7 160. 140. 6 Netherlands 120 (contract price). 5. 100. 4 80. 3 Germany 60 (contract price). 2 40. 1 20 United 0 0 Kingdom 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 (contract price). Turbine size Foundation per MW installed (right axis). Offshore wind generation costs to decline by a third on average in just five years IEA 2017 . IEEJ November 2017 IEEJ2017. Renewables growth more and more dependent on wind and solar Renewable electricity capacity growth by technology Capacity growth (GW). 1 200 90% Additional - accelearated case 80%. 1 000 Other renewables 70%. 800 60% Hydropower 50%. 600 Solar PV. 40%. 400 30% Wind 20%.

5 200. 10% % from wind and solar PV (right axis). 0 0%. 1999-2004 2005-10 2011-16 2017 -22. PV enters a new era, becoming the undisputed leader in Renewable power capacity growth; growth could be 27% higher led by PV (60%) with enhanced policies addressing regulatory uncertainties and grid integration IEA 2017 . IEEJ November 2017 IEEJ2017. China continues to lead growth while India overtakes the EU. Renewable capacity growth by country/region Capacity growth (GW). 400. 350. 300. 250. 200. 150. 100. 50. 0. China United States EU India Japan Brazil Africa & Middle East 2011-16 2017 -22 main case The forecast is 12% more optimistic vs. last year mainly due to solar PV revisions in China and India IEA 2017 .

6 IEEJ November 2017 IEEJ2017. China holds the key to the new solar PV era China's share in global solar PV manufacturing and demand 60%. 50%. 40%. 30%. 20%. 10%. 0%. 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016. % of China in total manufacturing % of China in global annual additions China influences the global Market volumes and prices of solar PV. IEA 2017 . IEEJ November 2017 IEEJ2017. Solar PV to lead China's Renewable expansion China cumulative Renewable capacity by technology in 2016 and 2022. GW. 450. 400. 350. 300. 250. 200. 150. 100. 50. 0. 2016 2022 2016 2022 2016 2022 2016 2022. Hydropower Wind Solar PV Other renewables Main case Additional in accelerated case Hydropower growth slows due to social and environmental concerns; wind expansion is stable despite integration challenges while solar PV growth slowly shifts to distributed generation IEA 2017 .

7 IEEJ November 2017 IEEJ2017. India: Policy improvements drive more optimistic outlook India annual Renewable capacity additions GW. 30. 25. 20. 15. 10. 5. 0. 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022. Hydropower Bioenergy Onshore wind Solar PV - utility Solar PV - commercial Solar PV - residential Accelerated case UDAY scheme improving financial health of distribution companies and auctions lead to competitive prices; grid integration, further implementation of RPOs and distributed generation remain challenges IEA 2017 . IEEJ November 2017 IEEJ2017. Japan's FIT revision: an important forecast uncertainty for PV. Japan's FIT revision impact on solar PV installations GWAC.

8 100. 75. 50. 25. 0. Certificated Operational Possible cancellation; Possible cancellation; Possible installation Grid agreement Project plan More than half of all previously approved but non-operational PV projects to be cancelled after METI's review while the pace of new approvals remain a forecast uncertainty IEA 2017 . IEEJ November 2017 IEEJ2017. Solar PV and bioenergy lead Japan's new Renewable additions Japan Renewable capacity additions GW. 50. 45. 40. 35. 30. 25. 20. 15. 10. 5. 0. 2011-16 2017 -22. Hydropower Bioenergy Wind PV - utility PV - commercial PV - residential Other renewables Additional in accelerated case PV accounts for 80% of Renewable growth with 21 GW expected in the next five years to reach 63 GW.

9 By 2022 but if FIT cancellations remain minimal PV capacity could be 16 GW higher IEA 2017 . IEEJ November 2017 IEEJ2017. ASEAN's non-hydro Renewable capacity to double by 2022. Cumulative Renewable capacity in selected countries in ASEAN in 2016 and 2022. GW. 25. 20. 15. 10. 5. 0. 2016 2022 2016 2022 2016 2022 2016 2022. Indonesia Thailand Viet Nam Philippines Hydropower Bioenergy Wind Solar PV Geothermal Energy diversification needs and growing power demand drive Renewable capacity growth in ASEAN. but grid integration, policy and regulatory uncertainties remain important challenges IEA 2017 . IEEJ November 2017 IEEJ2017. US tax incentives, RPSs and other state-level incentives remain strong drivers United States annual capacity additions for solar and wind by technology Annual additions (GW).

10 16 16. 14 14. 12 12. 10 10. 8 8. 6 6. 4 4. 2 2. 0 0. 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022. Wind PV - utility PV - commercial PV - residential Annual additions trend for solar and wind affected by tax phase-out schedules but announced policies on trade and tax reform remain important forecast uncertainties. IEA 2017 . IEEJ November 2017 IEEJ2017. Europe's deployment reflects policy transition Europe Renewable capacity growth 2017 -22. GW. 60. 50. 40. 30. 20. 10. 0. 2011-16 2017 -22 2011-16 2017 -22 2011-16 2017 -22. Germany France United Kingdom Hydropower Wind Solar PV Other renewables Europe's Renewable capacity is forecast to increase by over one-fifth in 2022, led by Germany, France and the UK, with the pace of growth gradually dictated by auction schedules with fixed volumes.


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