Report of the National Intelligence Council’s

1 NIC 2004-13 Report of the National Intelligence council s2020 ProjectBased on consultations with nongovernmentalexperts around the worldDecember 2004To obtain a copy of this publication, please contact:Government Printing Office (GPO), Superintendent of Documents, PO Box 391954,Pittsburgh, PA 15250-7954; Phone: (202) 512-1800; Fax: (202) 512-2250; http:\\ ;GPO Stock 041-015-0024-6; ISBN Summary9 Methodology19 Introduction25 The Contradictions of GlobalizationAn Expanding and Integrating Global EconomyThe Technology RevolutionLingering Social InequalitiesFictional Scenario: Davos World 2729343740 Rising Powers: The Changing Geopolitical LandscapeRising AsiaOther Rising States?The Aging PowersGrowing Demands for EnergyUS Unipolarity How Long Can It Last?

2 Fictional Scenario: Pax Americana 47485156596364 New Challenges to GovernanceHalting Progress on DemocratizationIdentity PoliticsFictional Scenario: A New Caliphate 73737983 Pervasive InsecurityTransmuting International TerrorismIntensifying Internal ConflictsRising Powers: Tinder for Conflict?The WMD FactorFictional Scenario: Cycle of Fear 93939798100104 Policy Implications11145 Graphics and TablesChina s and India s Per Capita GDPs Rising Against US31 When China s and India s GDPs Would Exceed Today s Rich Countries32 Telescoping the Population of the World to 202048 China s Rise50 Projected Rise in Defense Spending, 2003 202551 Fossil Fuels Will Continue to Dominate in 202059An Expanding European Union60 Number of Religious Adherents, 1900 202580 Key Areas of Radical Islamic Activities Since 199282EU.

3 Estimated and Projected Ratios of Muslims to Ethnic Europeans,1985-202583 Global Trends in Internal Conflict, 1990-200310167 Special TopicsThe 2020 Global Landscape8 Mapping the Global Future26 What Would an Asian Face on Globalization Look Like?28 What Could Derail Globalization?30 Biotechnology: Panacea and Weapon36 The Status of Women in 202038 Risks to Chinese Economic Growth52 India vs. China: Long-Term Prospects53 Asia: The Cockpit for Global Change?55 Global Aging and Migration58 Could Europe Become A Superpower?61 The Geopolitics of Gas62 Eurasian Countries: Going Their Separate Ways?74 Climate Change and Its Implications Through 202076 Latin America in 2020: Will Globalization Cause the Region to Split?

4 78 Organized Crime96 Cyber Warfare?97 How Can Sub-Saharan Africa Move Forward?99 International Institutions in Crisis102 The Rules of War: Entering No Man s Land 103 Post-Combat Environments Pose the Biggest Challenge104Is the United States Technological Prowess at Risk?112 How the World Sees the United States1148 The 2020 Global LandscapeRelative CertaintiesKey UncertaintiesGlobalization largely irreversible,likely to become less globalization will pull in laggingeconomies; degree to which Asian countries setnew rules of the game. World economy substantially of gaps between haves and have-nots ;backsliding by fragile democracies; managing orcontaining financial number of global firmsfacilitate spread of new to which connectivity of Asia and advent of possiblenew economic rise of China/India occurs populations in of EU and Japan to adapt work forces,welfare systems, andintegrate migrantpopulations; whether EU becomes a supplies in the ground sufficient to meet global instability in producer countries; power of nonstate and ability of states and internationalinstitutions to accommodate these Islam remains a potent of religiosity on unity of states and potentialfor conflict.

5 Growth of jihadist WMD capabilities of or fewer nuclear powers; ability of terroriststo acquire biological, chemical, radiological, ornuclear of instability spanning MiddleEast, Asia, events leading to overthrow power conflict escalating intototal war to manage flashpoints and competition and ethical issueseven more to the to which new technologies create or resolveethical will remain single most powerfulactor economically, technologically, other countries will more openlychallenge Washington; whether US loses S& SummaryAt no time since the formation of the Western alliance system in 1949 have theshape and nature of international alignments been in such a state of endof the Cold War shifted the tectonic plates, but the repercussions from these momentousevents are still unfolding.

6 Emerging powers in Asia, retrenchment in Eurasia, a roilingMiddle East, and transatlantic divisions are among the issues that have only come to ahead in recent years. The very magnitude and speed of change resulting from aglobalizing world apart from its precise character will be a defining feature of theworld out to 2020. Other significant characteristics include: the rise of new powers, newchallenges to governance, and a more pervasive sense of insecurity, including we map the future, the prospects for increasing global prosperity and the limitedlikelihood of great power conflict provide an overall favorable environment for copingwith what are otherwise daunting role of the United States will be animportant variable in how the world is shaped, influencing the path that states andnonstate actors choose to Global PlayersThe likely emergence of China and India,as well as others.

7 As new major globalplayers similar to the advent of a united Germany in the 19thcentury and apowerful United States in the early 20thcentury will transform the geopoliticallandscape, with impacts potentially as dramaticas those in the previous the same way that commentators refer to the 1900s as the AmericanCentury, the 21stcentury may be seen as the time when Asia, led by China and India,comes into its own. A combination of sustained high economic growth, expandingmilitary capabilities, and large populations will be at the root of the expected rapid rise ineconomic and political power for both countries. Most forecasts indicate that by 2020 China s gross National product (GNP) willexceed that of individual Western economic powers except for the United s GNP will have overtaken or be on the threshold of overtaking Europeaneconomies.

8 Because of the sheer size of China s and India s populations projected by the USCensus Bureau to be billion and almost billion respectively by 2020 theirstandard of living need not approach Western levels for these countries to becomeimportant economic an abrupt reversal of the process of globalization or any major upheavals inthese countries, the rise of these new powers is a virtual certainty. Yet how China andIndia exercise their growing power and whether they relate cooperatively orcompetitively to other powers in the international system are key uncertainties. Theeconomies of other developing countries, such as Brazil, could surpass all but thelargest European countries by 2020; Indonesia s economy could also approach theeconomies of individual European countries by most measures market size, single currency, highly skilled work force, stabledemocratic governments, and unified trade bloc an enlarged Europe will be able toincrease its weight on the international scene.

9 Europe s strength could be in providing amodel of global and regional governance to the rising powers. But aging populationsand shrinking work forces in most countries will have an important impact on thecontinent. Either European countries adapt their work forces, reform their socialwelfare, education, and tax systems, and accommodate growing immigrant populations(chiefly from Muslim countries), or they face a period of protracted economic faces a similar aging crisis that could crimp its longer run economic recovery, butit also will be challenged to evaluate its regional status and role. Tokyo may have tochoose between balancing against or bandwagoning with China. Meanwhile, thecrisis over North Korea is likely to come to a head sometime over the next 15 lingering resentments and concerns over Korean unification and cross-TaiwanStrait tensions point to a complicated process for achieving regional has the potential to enhance its international role with others due to its positionas a major oil and gas exporter.

10 However, Russia faces a severe demographic crisisresulting from low birth rates, poor medical care, and a potentially explosive AIDS situation. To the south, it borders an unstable region in the Caucasus and Central Asia,the effects of which Muslim extremism, terrorism, and endemic conflict are likely tocontinue spilling over into Russia. While these social and political factors limit theextent to which Russia can be a major global player, Moscow is likely to be an importantpartner both for the established powers, the United States and Europe, and for therising powers of China and these and other new global actors,how we mentally map the world in 2020 willchange arriviste powers China, India, and perhaps others such asBrazil and Indonesia have the potential to render obsolete the old categories of Eastand West, North and South, aligned and nonaligned, developed and geographic groupings will increasingly lose salience in international state-bound world and a world of mega-cities.