RISK MANAGEMENT IN PROJECTS - utu

1 RISK MANAGEMENT IN PROJECTSP roject MANAGEMENT and Leadership 2016D, PhD, PMPUNCERTAINTYa. The state of not being definitely known or perfectly clearALEATORYUNCERTAINTY objectiveandirreducibleuncertaintyaboutf utureoccurrencesthatisduetoinherentstoch asticityinphysicalorbiologicalsystems;EP ISTEMICUNCERTAINTY subjectiveandreducible,resultsfromalacko fknowledgeaboutthequantitiesorprocessesi dentifiedwithasystemb. Something not definitely known or #eid(TOBLER & WEBER inGLIMCHER & FEHR 2014, )RISKE ffect of uncertainty on objectives.

2 [Aneffectisadeviationfromtheexpected positiveand/ornegative;objectivescanhave differentaspects(suchasfinancial,healtha ndsafety,andenvironmentalgoals)andcanapp lyatdifferentlevels(suchasstrategic,orga nization-wide, project ,productandprocess) (ISO 31000:2009, Clause ) (WARGO et al. inSTANTON et al. 2010, )ELLSBERG PARADOX30601. Gamble A (red) or B (black)?2. C (redor yellow) or D (blackor yellow)? RISK MANAGEMENT being smart about taking chancesWE ARE NOT REALLY OBJECTIVE. CANNOT RELY ON EXPERIENCE ALONEE xperienceisanonrandomsampleofeventsthrou ghoutourlifetimeIt smemory-based(weareselectiveregardingwha ttoremember)Werememberextremesinourexper ience(thepeak-endrule)Whatweconcludefrom ourexperiencecanbefulloflogicalerrorsWit houtfeedbackonpastdecisions,ourexperienc eisnotuseful( , ) ,ANDSOWILLRISKS MANAGEMENT PROCESSRisk process initiationRisk identificationQualitative risk assessmentQuantitative risk analysis( , )]

3 Risk response planningRisk response implementationRisk reviewPost- project reviewRisk communicationRISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS (PMBOK)PLAN RISK MANAGEMENTIDENTIFY RISKSPERFORM QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSISPERFORM QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSISPLAN RISK RESPONSESMONITOR AND CONTROL RISKSIDENTIFY RISKSD ocumentation reviews; expert judgment; checklist analysisInformation gathering techniquesSWOT analysisAssumptions analysisPre-mortemDiagramming techniquesCAUSE-AND-EFFECT DIAGRAMPROCESS FLOW CHARTINFLUENCE DIAGRAM( , )CAUSE-AND-EFFECT DIAGRAMD isplays potential causes of a problem, depicting them as off-shoots or bones of a fish stemming from the problematic outcome as the head of the fishPROBLEMMETHODMANMANAGEMENTMEASUREMEN TMACHINEMATERIALCAUSE 1 CAUSE (1)documentprocesses,(2) FLOW CHARTSTART/ENDACTIVITYDECISIONYN?

4 INFLUENCE DIAGRAM(ID)avisualrepresentationofadecis ionproblemthatoffersanintuitivewaytorepr esentdecisions,uncertainties,objectives, andtheirmutualinteractions.(mod. CONDAMIN et al. 2006, )DECISIONUNCERTAINTYOBJECTIVE (VALUE)PhD defense4 papersPhD bookFinancingResultsThe bossExperimentsOpponentOrganizethe event HypothesisApprove printingApprove eventAccept hypothesisThe third partyBUILDING ANINFLUENCE DIAGRAMNo loops in ID!RISK REGISTERA documentinwhichtheresultsofriskanalysisa ndriskresponseplanningarerecorded( , )Theriskregisterwilldetailallidentifiedr isks(includingdescription,category,cause ,probabilityofoccurring,impact(s)onobjec tives,proposedresponses,owners,andcurren tstatus)

5 QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSISRisk PROBABILITY and IMPACT assessmentProbability and impact matrixRisk data quality assessmentRisk categorizationRisk urgency assessmentExpert judgmentPROBLEMS WITH THE SCORING METHODSD onotconsidertheissuesaboutperceptionofri sks/uncertaintiesAddtheirownsourcesoferr orasaresultofunintendedconsequencesofthe irstructureCreatean illusionofcommunication .Qualitativedescriptionsoflikelihoodareu nderstooddifferentlybydifferentpeople(mo d. HUBBARD 2009, , 127-128)QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUESSENSITIVITYANALYSIS helpstodeterminewhichriskshavethemostpot entialimpactontheproject;examinestheexte nttowhichtheuncertaintyofeachprojectelem entaffectstheobjectiveexaminedwhenalloth eruncertainelementsareheldattheirbaselin evalues(TORNADOCHARTS).

6 Usesamodelthattranslatesthespecifieddeta ileduncertaintiesoftheprojectintotheirpo tentialimpactonprojectobjectives(MONTECA RLO).EXPECTED MONETARY VALUE(EMV) ANALYSIS helpstocalculatetheaverageoutcomewhenthe futureincludesscenariosthatmayormaynotha ppen(DECISIONTREES).MODELING AND SIMULATIONUPDATES TO RISK REGISTERP robabilistic analysis of the projectProbability of achieving cost and time objectivesPrioritized list of quantified risksTrends in quantitative risk analysis resultsRISK RESPONSE STRATEGIES ACCEPTANCEAVOIDANCEMITIGATIONTRANSFERENC ERISK MANAGEMENT .

7 MethodologyRolesandresponsibilitiesBudge tingTimingRiskcategories( )DefinitionsofriskprobabilityandimpactRe visedstakeholders tolerancesTracking( , )Asariskmanageryoushouldalwaysassumethel istofconsideredrisks,nomatterhowextensiv e, (RM)STARTSATRISKSIDENTIFICATION,GOESTHRO UGHANALYSES, (ANDPLAN)ARENEVERCONSUMMATEBLACK SWANThe phenomenon of our inability to predict the future from the pastPopularizedbyNassimNicholasTaleb(200 7,2010)CRISIS MANAGEMENTC risesareneitherrarenorrandom;theyareapar tofourlivesCrisescannotalwaysbeforeseeno rpreventedMan-madecrisesarenotinevitable :thepublicisunforgivingCrisismanagementr equiresaheads-upapproachwithaveryquickre actiontimecombinedwithaconcertedefforton thepartofpossiblyallemployees.

8 (mod. KERZNER 2009, )CRISIS MANAGEMENT LIFE CYCLEEARLY WARNINGPROBLEM UNDERSTANDINGDAMAGEASSESSMENTCRISIS RESOLUTIONLESSONS LEARNEDSTAKEHOLDER COMMUNICATIONIMPLICATIONS FOR project the Crisis crisis Lessons LearnedRESILIENCET hefundamentalcharacteristicofaresilient[ system]isthatitdoesnotlosecontrolofwhati tdoes,butisabletocontinueandrebound.( , )REQUIRED QUALITIES OF A RESILIENT SYSTEM( , )ANTICIPATORY knowing what to expectATTENTIVE knowing what to look forRESPONSIVE knowing what to doKNOWLEDGEABLE COMPETENTRESOURCEFULA PERMANENT certi tesori esistono soltanto per chi batte per primo una strada Because some treasures only exist for those who beat a new road (Gianni Rodari) La strada che non andava in nessun posto