ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS; - World Health Organization

1 road TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS. The Professional Medical Journal ORIGINAL PROF-2699. road TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS;. PREDICTION IN PAKISTAN. Muhammad Imran1, Jamal Abdul Nasir2. 1. MS Scholar, Objective: To determine the trend of road TRAFFIC accidents (RTAs) and forecasting Department of Statistics, The Islamia University of their incidence is an emerging to take safety measures so that general public Health related Bahawalpur, morbidity and mortality can be minimized. Setting: The data for present study has been taken Bahawalpur-Pakistan from Pakistan bureau of statistics (statistics House). Period: January 2002-2003 to December 2. Director Sub Campus 2011-2012. Methods: A set of eleven curve fitting models namely linear, quadratic, cubic, Rahim Yar Khan (RYK) &.

2 Assistant Professor of Statistics logarithmic, inverse, exponential growth model, logistics-curve ,and compound models were The Islamia University of carried out for prediction. Results: Under the descriptive analysis, the annual average number Bahawalpur, of fatal and non-fatal accidents is and respectively. In provinces Punjab contributes Bahawalpur-Pakistan to a high rate of total number of accidents, while Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh and Baluchistan Correspondence Address: placed second, third and fourth respectively. Under the curve fitting estimation, the cubic Muhammad Imran model was selected for predicting the annual TRAFFIC road accident for all categories The Islamia University of Bahawalpur, (i) Total Number of accident (ii) Fatal accident (iii) Non-Fatal accident (iv) Killed People Bahawalpur-Pakistan.

3 (v) Injured People and (vi) The Number of Vehicle Involved. Rising trend in all categories are expected in Pakistan. Conclusions: The TRAFFIC road accident is expected to rise in Pakistan. Article received on: 00-00-000. Key words: Curve fitting models; Forecasting; Pakistan; TRAFFIC road accidents Accepted for publication: 00-00-000. Received after proof reading: Article Citation: Imran M, Nasir JA. road TRAFFIC accidents; prediction in pakistan. Professional 02/06/2015. Med J 2015;22(6):705-709. INTRODUCTION developed nations and will become a fifth leading Every year more than a million people lost cause of death in The poor road condition, their lives on the World 's roads while the non- TRAFFIC infrastructure, rapid motorization and the fatality injuries between 20 to 50 TRAFFIC behavior of road users caused an increment in road fatalities vary in region by region and RTAs fatalities and injuries in developing countries country by countries, Africa has the higher rate and continue to The major and the mutual ( ) and the European region has causes of TRAFFIC road accident in throughout the the lower rate( ) while south Asia globe are vehicle related factors, human related placed on fourth ( ).

4 1 The globally factors and environmental related The annual road TRAFFIC fatality rate for overall, middle- major factors that caused for RTAs in developing income, low-income and high-income countries countries that contributes to the high rate of are 18/100000, , and crashes are , lack of safety belt and helmet use, a respectively, while over 80% road large number of old vehicles on roads that often fatalities took place in low and middle income carry more people than their capacity and design, Globally the death rate is much higher poor road design and maintenance and the TRAFFIC in Pedestrians, motorcyclists, cyclists and the mix on passenger use public transport including 5.. However the progress of any country is much RTAs in Pakistan depending on the mobility of transportation.

5 The Pakistan is a developing country and ranked as increasing tendency to the road transportation is a 6th most populous country in the globe. The maximizing the chances of TRAFFIC road crashes. RTAs fatalities and disabilities in low- and middle RTAs have become a noteworthy Health problem income countries are more than 85% and 90%. not only in developing countries but also in the In Pakistan, the pedestrians and the Professional Med J 2015;22(6): 705-709 705. road TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS 2. rider of motorized (2 or 3 wheelers) at on greater METHODS AND MATERIAL. risk and the leading cause of RTAs fatalities The data for current study has been taken from 41% and 39% The main reason of Pakistan bureau of statistics from January 2002- TRAFFIC road accident is lack of awareness about 2003 to December 2011-2012.

6 The register data TRAFFIC sense codes and orders, driver related on TRAFFIC road accident with the police authorities factor, overloading over speed use of cell phone relates to road accident only. Railway accidents during driving and vehicle related In a air crashes electrocutions are not included. Fatal survey based analysis in Islamabad the capital accidents refer to those where the death occurred of Pakistan, was found the overall deficient about on the spot or where the victim succumbed to road safety awareness, while the data taken from injuries later on. Non-fatal accidents refer to those the hospital showed that 87% RTAs cases due to in which no person was killed but in which one or negligence of TRAFFIC The poor enforcement more persons were seriously or slightly injured or of TRAFFIC laws on seat-build and helmet wearing property damaged.

7 In The enforcement of the new road laws plays a vital role in the reduction of RTAs and Methods The impact of TRAFFIC road accident is Eleven different curves estimation models have significantly associated with the victim and their been carried out by taking = dependent families and the national economy particularly for variable, where . Let represent ,15 The roughly estimated cost related the number of total registered accident , to TRAFFIC crashes is 1%, and 2% of Gross represent the number of registered fatal accident , national product in lower middle and high income represent the number of registered non-fatal countries For Pakistan that cost is accident , represent the number of registered killed person's, represent the number of estimated to be 2% of the Pakistan's registered injured person's and represent the number of registered vehicle involved in an RTAs Modeling accident .

8 The independent variable is t (2002- As road TRAFFIC injuries has become a major public 03=1, 2003-04=2 and so on 2011-12=10). Health concern, but preventable. It needs effective Among the various models namely linear, implementations of mathematical and statistical quadratic, cubic, logarithmic, inverse, exponential models that allow better understanding the level, growth model, logistics-curve, and compound trend and predicting its development. Time series models, cubic model is selected due to higher analysis and regression analysis is excessively value of coefficients of determination. used for prediction of TRAs. In Nigeria curve fitting estimation was used for predicting the TRAFFIC road CUBIC MODEL. accident related fatalities and A study This model is define by the following equation made in Qatar, and found that regression models estimate was better as compared to smeed's = + + (1).

9 Model in TRAFFIC road A regression analysis and modeling was used in Turkey to find While 1, and are the regression out significant factor that caused for coefficients, e represents regression residual. Box-Jenkins model was developed for predicting F-test was used to choose the statistically the trend of road TRAFFIC accidents in Ghana and significant regression ,21 The logistic regression, the multiple linear regression models, Bayesian approach Coefficient of Determination and Poisson regression models are often used to analyze and develop the model to understand = (2). the pattern and magnitude of the road TRAFFIC Statistical package for social sciences (SPSS) 16. was used for the execution of various curve fitting models.

10 Professional Med J 2015;22(6): 705-709 706. road TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS 3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 2003 to 2011-12 is given in Table I. Trend analysis On the basis of given registered data the annually is given in figure1 for various categories. The average numbers of fatal and non-fatal accidents total member of RTAs in 2006-07 was high 10466. is and respectively. While in a single a similar level was observed in 2007-08. There accident the average causalities and wounds are is an overall gradual trend toward a declining for 31% and 69% in Pakistan respectively. In a 100 all categories in last couple of years. Graphically accidents the number of vehicles involved is 109. illustrations are shown in Figure 1. Detail of descriptive statistics for RTAs from 2002- Min Max Mean Std.