S&P 500 Dividend & Earnings Yield - Yardeni Research

1 S&P 500 Dividend & Earnings YieldYardeni Research , 3, 2022Dr. Ed visit our sites outside the boxTable Of ContentsTable Of ContentsTable Of ContentsMay 3, 2022 / S&P 500 Dividend & Earnings Yield Research , 500 Earnings Yield3-1247 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27-10-5051015-10-5051015S&P 500 Dividend Yield vs CPI INFLATION RATE& STOCK MARKET CYCLEQ1S&P 500 Dividend YieldReal** ( )Nominal* ( )* S&P 500 four-quarter trailing dividends per share divided by quarterly closing value of the S&P 500 index.

2 ** Nominal Dividend Yield minus CPI inflation rate on y/y basis using quarterly data based on 3-month : shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull : Standard & Poor s and Bureau of Labor 500 REPORTED Earnings Yield * vs CPI INFLATION RATE**Q1S&P 500 Earnings Yield *Real** ( )Nominal ( )* S&P 500 reported Earnings as a percent of quarterly average S&P 500 index. Q4-2008 deleted because of negative value.** Nominal Earnings Yield minus CPI inflation rate on y/y basis using quarterly data based on 3-month Note: shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more.

3 Yellow areas show bull : Standard & Poor s and Bureau of Labor : Standard & Poor s and Bureau of Labor 500 Earnings YieldPage 3 / May 3, 2022 / S&P 500 Dividend & Earnings Yield Research , 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28-3036912-3036912S&P 500 REPORTED Earnings Yield * MINUS CPI INFLATION RATE**Q1 Latest ( )Average * S&P 500 reported Earnings as a percent of quarterly average S&P 500 index. Q4-2008 dropped because of large negative value.** Year-over-year percent change in three-month average of each : shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more.

4 Yellow areas are bull : Standard & Poor s and Bureau of Labor 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26-4-202468101214-4-202468101214US EQUITIES REPORTED Earnings Yield * MINUS CPI INFLATION RATE**Q4 Latest ( )Average = * Ratio of after-tax corporate profits as reported to the IRS divided by market value of US equities traded in the US excluding foreign issues.** Year-over-year percent change in quarterly using three-month : shaded red areas denote S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull : Federal Reserve 500 Earnings YieldPage 4 / May 3, 2022 / S&P 500 Dividend & Earnings Yield Research , 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26-6-4-202468101214161820-6-4-2024681012 14161820 REAL Earnings YIELDSQ1Q4 Real Earnings YieldsS&P 500* ( )All EquitiesLess Foreign** ( )* After-tax corporate profits as reported to the IRS as a percent of market value of US equities traded in the US excluding foreign issues minusCPI inflation rate (y/y in quarterly using 3-ma).

5 ** S&P 500 reported Earnings as a percent of quarterly average S&P 500 index minus CPI inflationrate (y/y in quarterly using 3-ma). Q4-2008 dropped because of negative : shaded red areas denote S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull : Federal Reserve Board, Standard & Poor s, and Bureau of Labor 500 REPORTED Earnings Yield *(as a percent of quarterly average S&P 500 index, annual rate, nsa)* S&P 500 reported Earnings as a percent of quarterly average S&P 500 index. Q4-2008 dropped because of negative : Standard & Poor 500 Earnings YieldPage 5 / May 3, 2022 / S&P 500 Dividend & Earnings Yield Research , 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 2730330630930123015301830303306309301230 15301830 MarS&P 500 INDEX DIVIDED BY CONSUMER PRICE INDEX(ratio scale)Source: Standard & Poor s and Bureau of Labor 500 REPORTED Earnings Yield *vs CPI INFLATION RATE**S&P 500 Earnings Yield ( )CPI Inflation Rate ( )* S&P 500 reported Earnings as a percent of quarterly average S&P 500 index.

6 Q4-2008 dropped because of negative value.** Year-over-year percent change in three-month average of each : Standard & Poor s and Bureau of Labor 500 Earnings YieldPage 6 / May 3, 2022 / S&P 500 Dividend & Earnings Yield Research , 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28-3036912-3036912S&P 500 REPORTED Earnings Yield * MINUS CPI INFLATION RATE**Q1 Latest ( )Average * S&P 500 reported Earnings as a percent of quarterly average S&P 500 index. Q4-2008 dropped because of large negative value.** Year-over-year percent change in three-month average of each : shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more.

7 Yellow areas are bull : Standard & Poor s and Bureau of Labor 500 REPORTED Earnings Yield *vs US TREASURY 10-YEAR BOND YIELDS&P 500 Earnings Yield ( )US Treasury 10-Year Yield (percent) ( )* S&P 500 reported Earnings as a percent of quarterly average S&P 500 index. Q4-2008 dropped because of negative : Standard & Poor s and Federal Reserve 500 Earnings YieldPage 7 / May 3, 2022 / S&P 500 Dividend & Earnings Yield Research , 500 REPORTED Earnings Yield *MINUS US TREASURY 10-YEAR BOND Yield * S&P 500 reported Earnings as a percent of quarterly average S&P 500 index. Q4-2008 dropped because of negative : Standard & Poor s and Federal Reserve 500 REPORTED Earnings / CONSUMER PRICE INDEX*(dollars per share, annualized, ratio scale)* S&P 500 reported Earnings divided by consumer price index (three-month average of each quarter).

8 Q4-2008 dropped because of negative : Standard & Poor s and Bureau of Labor 500 Earnings YieldPage 8 / May 3, 2022 / S&P 500 Dividend & Earnings Yield Research , 500 REPORTED Earnings Yield *vs CPI INFLATION RATE**S&P 500 Earnings Yield ( )CPI Inflation Rate ( )* S&P 500 reported Earnings as a percent of quarterly average S&P 500 index. Q4-2008 dropped because of negative value.** Year-over-year percent change in three-month average of each : Standard & Poor s and Bureau of Labor 500 REPORTED Earnings PER SHARE(dollars, quarterly, ratio scale 4-quarter sum)Q1 Note: shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic : Standard & Poor 500 Earnings YieldPage 9 / May 3, 2022 / S&P 500 Dividend & Earnings Yield Research , 500 REPORTED Earnings Yield *& STOCK MARKET CYCLEQ1S&P 500 Earnings Yield *Real** ( )Nominal ( )* S&P 500 reported Earnings as a percent of quarterly average S&P 500 index.

9 Q4-2008 deleted because of negative value.** Nominal Earnings Yield minus CPI inflation rate on y/y basis using quarterly data based on 3-month : shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull : Standard & Poor s and Bureau of Labor : Standard & Poor s and Bureau of Labor 500 REPORTED Earnings Yield *& BUSINESS CYCLEQ1 Real S&P 500 Earnings Yield ** ( )* S&P 500 reported Earnings as a percent of quarterly average S&P 500 index. Q4-2008 deleted because of negative value.** Nominal Earnings Yield minus CPI inflation rate on y/y basis using quarterly data based on 3-month : shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic : Standard & Poor s and the Conference 500 Earnings YieldPage 10 / May 3, 2022 / S&P 500 Dividend & Earnings Yield Research , 500 REPORTED Earnings Yield * vsLEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS& STOCK MARKET CYCLEQ1 MarReal S&P 500 Earnings Yield ** ( )Leading EconomicIndicators(yearly percent change) ( )* S&P 500 reported Earnings as a percent of quarterly average S&P 500 index.

10 Q4-2008 deleted because of negative value.** Nominal Earnings Yield minus CPI inflation rate on y/y basis using quarterly data based on 3-month : shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull : Standard & Poor s and the Conference 500 REPORTED Earnings Yield * vsLEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS& STOCK MARKET CYCLEQ1 MarS&P 500 Real Earnings Yield ** ( )LEI: Interest RateSpread** ( )* S&P 500 reported Earnings as a percent of quarterly average S&P 500 index. Q4-2008 deleted because of negative value.** Nominal Earnings Yield minus CPI inflation rate on y/y basis using quarterly data based on 3-month averages.