Section 4 Worldwide ASIC Market - Smithsonian …

1 INTRODUCTIONThe use of ASIC devices has increased as their functionality has improved. Greater sophisticationof ASIC products has made their use more widespread throughout the world. The worldwideASIC Market shows promise of continued expansion in terms of dollars and design starts in 1996and through the year recent years, ASIC devices have made their way into numerous low-voltage applicationsincluding notebook and laptop PCs, cellular phones, and pagers. Design and manufacturingimprovements have advanced to the point where an ASIC can be quickly developed and imple-mented into a new system so that it can be delivered quickly to Market . Other factors such as anincrease in successful first-time design rates, better design tools, and improved test capabilitieshave all contributed to the overall development and progress of the ASIC the semiconductor Market matures, the "system on a chip" concept will become more of a real-ity.

2 Shrinking silicon die sizes, increasing functionality, and economic necessity will pave the wayfor ASICs to be a key element of this LOGIC MARKETAn analysis of the logic Market provides a good background to the study of the ASIC Market sincea vast majority of ASIC products perform some basic logic function within a system. Figure 4-1shows the logic trends by technology. The most obvious trend shown on the graph is the tremen-dous growth of CMOS logic. In the time span shown, CMOS technology has grown from a minor-ity process to the dominant process used in making logic the other hand, older technologies such as NMOS and bipolar are quickly being phased , ECL technology, after maintaining about eight percent of the logic marketshare for severalyears, is forecast to be account for a very small percentage of the logic Market by the year CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION4-14 Worldwide ASIC MARKETMany of the excellent performance characteristics of ECL and other older technologies have beenreplicated in CMOS and BiCMOS technologies in recent years.

3 These two technologies will dom-inate not only the logic Market , but all digital IC production in the foreseeable in Figure 4-2 is the average selling price (ASP) for logic devices during the past sever-al years. The percent change in ASPs from year to year is shown in Figure 4-3. The TTL SSI/MSIsegment of logic devices has remained essentially flat since the late-1980 s. Meanwhile, MOS logicASPs swelled in the mid-1980 s, stayed flat for several years, then took off again beginning in 1994due to increased sophistication and greater implementation of logic products in systems. ASPs forthe total logic Market mirrored the MOS logic AND CONS OF ASICsFigure 4-4 shows several advantages and disadvantages of using ASIC devices in a must weigh several options. Costs, delivery time, functionality, quality, and overallcustomer satisfaction are but a few of the inputs that must be weighed carefully in selectingwhether to incorporate an ASIC device in the host ASIC MarketINTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION4-201020304050607080901002001 $ $ $ $ $ of Total Logic Market *Includes 1% for GaAs51%8%18%23%27%8%10%55%8%5%3%4%<1%3%3 %6%1%1%86%88%<1%92%12875 PTTL and Other Bipolar ECLNMOSCMOSBiCMOSS ource: ICE, "ASIC 1997"Figure 4-1.

4 Logic Market TrendsWorldwide ASIC MarketINTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING (FCST)1995199419931992199119901989198819 871986198519841983 TTL SSI/MSI MOS Logic Total LogicASP ($)20197 BYearSource: WSTS/ICE, "ASIC 1997 Figure 4-2. Average Selling Price for Logic DevicesFigure 4-3. ASP Percent Change 20 10010203040501996 (FCST)1995199419931992199119901989198819 87198619851984 YearPercent Change20196 ASource: WSTS/ICE, "ASIC 1997"TTL SSI/MSI MOS Logic Total LogicASIC Market FORECASTICE segments the ASIC Market into three areas semicustom (MOS and bipolar gate arrays andlinear arrays), custom (MOS and bipolar cell-based and full custom devices), and programmablelogic devices (including FPGAs). A detailed look at the five-year history of these segments is pro-vided in Figure ASIC marketshare of the semicustom, custom, and PLD segments remained about the samethrough the first half of the decade.

5 However, within each of these segments, different productsgained or lost marketshare. For instance, within the total custom segment, standard cell and fullcustom devices swapped marketshare position. And, within the total PLD segment, bipolar PLDslost considerable marketshare to complex 4-6 extends the ASIC Market review through the year 2001. ICE believes that in 1996, theASIC Market will grow 20 percent. The catalyst for ASIC growth will be strong PLD and MOSstandard cell sales. With few exceptions, growth in most product areas appears promisingthrough the year 2001. However, the mainstream IC Market has moved away from bipolar-basedICs toward MOS-based technology. As a result, bipolar gate arrays, standard cells, and PLDs areforecast to be the poorest performing of all ASIC with the forecast calling for sustained growth, the ASIC Market will decline to represent 14percent of the Worldwide IC Market in the year 2001, as displayed in Figure 4-7.

6 Fast growth inother IC segments such as DRAMs and microprocessors will outpace growth in the ASIC marketin the long run. Therefore, even as the ASIC Market increases, its percentage of the overall IC mar-ket will slightly ASIC MarketINTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION4-4 Lower final system costs Product security Unique features Lower number of components (Increased system reliability and decreased system size) High integration can lower power consumption and increase performance12879 CHigher initial costs of development* Length of time needed for development and circuit approval* Difficult to fine tune system in latter development stagesSource: ICE, "ASIC 1997"*Compared to standard productsADVANTAGESDISADVANTAGESF igure 4-4. Major Advantages and Disadvantages of ASICsWorldwide ASIC MarketINTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION4-5 MOS Gate Arrays Bipolar Gate Arrays Total Gate Arrays Linear Arrays Total Semicustom MOS Standard Cell Bipolar Standard Cell Total Standard Cell Full Custom Total Custom Bipolar PLDs Simple MOS PLDs Complex MOS PLDs FPGAs Total MOS PLDs Total PLDs Total ASIC WW IC Market ASIC % of WW IC Mkt2,845 1,000 3,845 165 4,010 2,065 55 2,120 2,625 4,745 335 310 90 170 570 905 9,660 46,315 21%2% 10% 1% 12% 0% 10% 18% 11% 1% 5% 16% 0% 44% 32% 17% 4% 3% 12%2,915 905 3,820 185 4,005 2,280 65 2,345 2,650 4,995 280 310 130 225 665 945 9,945 51,875 19%22% 13% 14% 11% 14% 20% 15% 20% 2% 11% 18% 27% 69% 53% 44% 26% 13% 31%3,555 790 4,345 205 4,550 2,745 75 2,820 2,700 5,520 230 395 220 345 960 1,190 11.

7 260 67,950 17%26% 20% 18% 7% 17% 31% 20% 30% 1% 16% 33% 9% 36% 33% 17% 7% 16% 33%4,480 635 5,115 220 5,335 3,585 90 3,675 2,725 6,400 155 360 300 460 1,120 1,275 13,010 90,295 14%23% 2% 20% 7% 20% 36% 6% 35% 1% 20% 26% 7% 83% 55% 47% 38% 22% 43%5,510 650 6,160 235 6,395 4,860 85 4,945 2,750 7,695 115 385 550 715 1,650 1,765 15,855 128,680 12%18% 10% 13% 9% 12% 24% 11% 24% 1% 13% 23% 6% 57% 43% 30% 18% 13% 29%Segment 1991 ($M) 1992/1991 Percent Change1992 ($M) 1993/1992 Percent Change1993 ($M) 1994/1993 Percent Change1994 ($M) 1995/1994 Percent Change1995 ($M) 1991-1995 CAGR (%) 20198 BSource: ICE, "ASIC 1997"Figure 4-5. 1991-1995 ASIC MarketMOS Gate Arrays Bipolar Gate Arrays Total Gate Arrays Linear Arrays Total Semicustom MOS Standard Cell Bipolar Standard Cell Total Standard Cell Full Custom Total Custom Bipolar PLDs Simple MOS PLDs Complex MOS PLDs FPGAs Total MOS PLDs Total PLDs Total ASIC WW IC Market ASIC % of WW IC MktSegment16% 23% 13% 2% 13% 20% 6% 20% 2% 14% 29% 3% 26% 24% 20% 18% 14% 13%1997/1996 Percent Change1997 ($M)7,600 385 7,985 245 8,230 7,350 75 7,425 2,850 10,275 50 370 925 1,155 2,450 2,500 21,005 138,806 15%1998/1997 Percent Change15% 22% 13% 4% 13% 22% 7% 22% 2% 16% 20% 5% 29% 26% 22% 22% 16% 17%1998 ($M)

8 8,750 300 9,050 255 9,305 9,000 70 9,070 2,900 11,970 40 350 1,190 1,460 3,000 3,040 24,315 162,052 15%1999/1998 Percent Change17% 22% 16% 4% 16% 23% 7% 23% 2% 18% 20% 6% 30% 28% 25% 24% 18% 18%1999 ($M)10,250 235 10,485 265 10,750 11,050 65 11,115 2,950 14,065 32 330 1,550 1,870 3,750 3,782 28,597 191,675 15%2000/1999 Percent Change18% 21% 17% 4% 17% 25% 8% 25% 2% 20% 19% 8% 31% 29% 27% 27% 20% 21%2000 ($M)12,100 185 12,285 275 12,560 13,800 60 13,860 3,000 16,860 26 305 2,035 2,420 4,760 4,786 34,206 232,043 15%2001/2000 Percent Change19% 22% 18% 4% 18% 27% 8% 26% 2% 22% 23% 8% 32% 30% 28% 28% 21% 26%2001 ($M)14,400 145 14,545 285 14,830 17,475 55 17,530 3,075 20,605 20 280 2,680 3,140 6,100 6,120 41,555 292,876 14%1991-2001 CAGR (%)18% 18% 14% 6% 14% 24% 0% 24% 2% 16% 25% 1% 40% 34% 27% 21% 16% 20%1996-2001 CAGR (%)17% 22% 16% 3% 15% 23% 7% 23% 2% 18% 22% 6% 30% 27% 24% 24% 18% 19%20199 BSource: ICE, "ASIC 1997"6,550 500 7,050 240 7,290 6,100 80 6,180 2,800 8,980 70 380 735 935 2,050 2,120 18,390 122,408 15%1996 ($M)19% 23% 14% 2% 14% 26% 6% 25% 2% 17% 39% 1% 34% 31% 24% 20% 16% 5%1996/1995 Percent ChangeFigure 4-6.

9 1996-2001 ASIC Market ForecastProjected growth of each major ASIC Market during the 1996-2001 period is shown in Figure closer look at the cumulative annual growth rates of specific segments is displayed in Figure 4-9. Here, the "hot" markets such as complex PLDs, FPGAs, MOS standard cells, and MOS gatearrays are exposed. At the same time, the demise of bipolar ASICs is evident as ASIC MarketINTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION4-6WW IC Market ($M) ASIC % of WW IC MarketWW IC Market ($M) ASIC % of WW IC MarketWW IC Market ($M)ASIC % of WW IC Market46,315 21%51,875 19%67,950 17%90,295 14%128,680 12%122,408 15%138,806 15%162,052 15%232,043 15%292,876 14%191,675 15%45,00070,00095,000120,000145,000170,0 00195,000220,000245,000270,000295,000200 1200019991998199719961995199419931992199 10102030405060708090100 YearSource: ICE, "ASIC 1997"21035 Figure 4-7.

10 ASIC Share of Worldwide Market21036 Source: ICE, "ASIC 1997"Total Semicustom Total Custom Total PLDs Total ASIC7,290 8,980 2,120 18,39014,830 20,605 6,120 41,5552x ($M)2001 ($M) Market GrowthFigure 4-8. ASIC Growth ProjectionsThe total ASIC Market is forecast to grow at a healthy 18 percent CAGR through the end of thedecade, with four categories equaling or bettering that performance and six categories not grow-ing at the same rate as the overall ASIC in Figure 4-10 is the evolving ASIC product marketshare. In 1986, full custom productsaccounted for more than half of ASIC marketshare. Now, though this segment is growing ever soslightly in terms of dollars, it is losing marketshare to devices such as standard cells. Full customASICs are forecast to represent only seven percent of total ASIC product marketshare in the year2001.