Selecting Indicators for impact evaluation.

1 Selecting Indicators forimpact Sandhu-Rojon, UNDPC ontentsWhat Indicators tell us about the wind1. Introduction2. Indicators Only Indicate3. Types of Indicators4. Qualitative and Quantitative Expressions of Indicators5. Selecting Indicators6. Indicators are Practical and Observable7. A Shared Commitment With Partners8. Baseline, Target and Timeframe9. indicator Data Collection10. ConclusionFigures1. Assessing performance along results2. School enrolment as an indicator of access to educationTables1. Examples of outcomes and outcome indicators2. Indicators according to relationship between output, outcome and impact3. Examples of output and outcome indicator scales4. Qualitative observation of advocacy and upstream policy results5. Selection criteria for indicators6. Sample indicator monitoring planWhat Indicators tell us about the windWho has seen the wind?Neither you nor where the trees bow down their heads,The wind is passing by. The Wind, Christina Rosetti, 1830-1894If we want to know if the wind is blowing, the bowing treetops are a good the treetops are bending may tell us many different things: the coming of a change inseasons; that it is a good day for children to fly kites; or that bird nests may fall down.

2 What ittells us depends on who we are and what we want to some, however, the fact that treetops are bending may not represent the most important thingthey want to know about the wind. In order to steer his boat, the fisherman may need to know thedirection of the wind. The farmer, on the other hand, may want to know how strong the wind is,because her crops might be ruined. Or perhaps the farmer is less interested in the wind than inthe type of clouds, which may be a better indicator of coming the treetops tell us, they will never tell us why the wind is blowing. They will notexplain the complex meteorological changes occurring in the atmosphere or reveal that the windis coming from a storm far out at then, can tell us that a change we are interested in is happening. And Indicators can beframed in a way that is most relevant to us. But they cannot explain why and how that changeoccurs. They can tell us the wind is blowing, but not why, to what effect or what we should doabout IntroductionDemonstrating progress towards resultsIndicators are signposts of change along the path to development.

3 Indicators are what we observein order to verify whether or to what extent it is true that progress is being made towards ourgoals, which define what we want to make it possible to demonstrate results. Indicators can also help in producing resultsby providing a reference point for monitoring, decision-making, stakeholder consultations andevaluation. In particular, Indicators can help to: Measure progress and achievements; Clarify consistency between activities, outputs, outcomes and goals; Ensure legitimacy and accountability to all stakeholders by demonstrating progress; Assess project and staff verifying change, Indicators help us demonstrate progress when things go right and provideearly warning signals when things go wrong. This assists in identifying changes that need to bemade in organizational strategy and practice. The continuous monitoring of Indicators alsofacilitates effective to use indicatorsThe purpose of Indicators is to support effectiveness throughout the processes of planning,implementation, monitoring, reporting and evaluation in other words, throughout the fullspectrum of results-based may be used at any point along the results chain of inputs, activities, outputs,outcomes and impacts.

4 They may relate to the actual achievement of the result (target), to thecurrent situation the partners are trying to change (baseline) or to progress or process (annualtargets, intermediary benchmarks). Country offices (CO) may apply Indicators to any otherprocess or product that is useful to measure ( , the formation of new partnerships, the timespent on soft assistance initiatives or the delivery of activities in project work plans).2. Indicators Only IndicateLimits and risksIndicators only indicate; they do not explain. Determining that change has occurred does not tellthe story of why it has occurred. Indicators constitute only one part of the logical and substantiveanalysis needed for development efforts to succeed. In addition, success requires common sense,sound managerial judgment, leadership and creativity none of which can be replaced by the useof use of Indicators can be made into an elaborate science demanding a major workload.

5 Usinga large number of different Indicators , however, has no merit in itself. The key to good indicatorsis credibility not volume of data or precision in measurement. A quantitative observation is nomore inherently objective than a qualitative observation. Large volumes of data can confuserather than bring focus. It is more helpful to have approximate answers to a few importantquestions than to have exact answers to many unimportant proxy for changeThe fundamental challenge with Indicators is to meaningfully capture key changes or results .This is accomplished by combining what is substantively valid with what is practically possibleto development, it is often difficult to make objective and exact observations of the complexdevelopment changes we are addressing. Instead, we frequently rely on observations thatapproximate intended changes. We use Indicators that are commonly understood to be closelyrelated, share of social expenditures in a government budget as proxy for povertyorientation of national policies, or proportion of parliamentarians who are female as proxy forempowerment of women in national decision-making Types of IndicatorsThree results indicatorsDifferent types of Indicators are required to assess progress towards results.

6 Within the RBMframework, UNDP uses at least three types of Indicators , also known as results Indicators : Situational ( impact ) Indicators , which provide a broad picture of whether thedevelopmental changes that matter to UNDP are actually occurring ( impact indicatorsand situational Indicators are essentially the same, although the former may be morespecific and the latter may be more generic); outcome Indicators , which assess progress against specified outcomes; Output Indicators , which assess progress against specific operational 1 illustrates the linkages between situational, output and outcome Indicators for assessingperformance results in terms of results. It also highlights the level of management project,programme or senior country office that would find a particular type of indicator most useful,allowing for a degree of overlap among the levels and types of 1. Assessing performance along resultsSituational indicatorsSituational Indicators describe the national development situation.

7 They relate to the MillenniumDevelopment Goals and the SRF Goals and Sub-goals, and reflect long-term developmentresults, or impact . Situational Indicators provide a broad picture of country development status(macro baseline). They are most useful to the country office senior management, informing thelevel at which senior management interacts with partners and develops find examples of situational Indicators , refer to the National Human Development Report(NHDR), the Common Country Assessment (CCA) and national statistics. Specific examples ofsituational Indicators include the signature UNDP-initiated development Indicators such as thehuman development index (HDI) and the human poverty index (HPI) as well as others developedby the OECD and adopted by the United Nations indicatorsOutcome Indicators help the organization and country offices think strategically about the keyresults or outcomes they want to achieve.

8 They help verify that the intended positive change inthe development situation has actually taken place. outcome Indicators are designed within theSRF framework and the Country Programme, and they are most useful to the country officeprogramme managers who liase both with the CO senior management on progress towardsoutcomes and with the project-level management on the contribution of outputs to outcomes. An outcome indicator for an advocacy activity aimed at policy change in governanceinstitutions may include observing parliamentary passage of a desirable legal change, andReduction orRemoval ofProblemSUSTAINEDIMPACTOUTCOMESRESULTSR ESULTSO utput Indicators (effort) outcome Indicators (effectiveness)Long-term ImpactIndicatorsSituationalIndicatorsDEV ELOPMENTPROBLEM / ISSUEDEVELOPMENTINPUTSACTIVITIESOUTPUTSM & ESeniorManagementLevel(CCA/UNDAF)Project ManagementLevelProgrammeManagementLevelS eniorManagementLevel(CCA/UNDAF)Primary LevelConcernedalso observing if the new law is backed up by an allocation of financial resources by acertain of outcome and outcome Indicators adapted from the Strategic Results Framework(SRF) are listed in Table 1.

9 Examples of outcomes and outcome indicatorsExpected outcomeOutcome indicatorThe policy, legal and regulatory framework reformedto substantially expand connectivity to informationand communication technologies (ICT)(Poverty, G2-SGN2-SASN3)Estimated number and proportion of the populationwith access to the Internet, disaggregated by genderIncreased effectiveness of parliament to perform itsoversight functions(Governance, G1-SGN2-SASN1)Mechanisms for accountability such as a PublicAccounts Committee are in place to ensure legislativeoversightFair and efficient administration of justice(Governance, G1-SGN2-SASN3)Level of public confidence in the justice systemThe national policy framework reformed to achieveuniversal access to basic services(Poverty, G2-SGN2-SASN2)Proportion of the poor covered by institutionalizedsocial security and insurance schemes (pensions,health, unemployment) or transitory safety nets(programmes for temporary unemployment, food-basedor cash transfers)Women s organizations enabled to advocate andmonitor improvements in the status of women(Gender, G4-SGN1-SASN3)Existence of national legislation and measures toprovide an enabling environment for women s non-governmental organizations (NGOs)Systematic monitoring of progress in linking nationaldevelopment targets with globally agreed goals(UN Support, G6-SGN1-SASN2)A comprehensive monitoring and evaluation systemcreated and applied to track progress in the country shuman development in the context of PRSPS ource: Adapted from the Strategic Results Frameworks of Gabon, Kyrgyzstan, Nepal, Tanzania and Venezuela, indicatorsOutput Indicators help to measure and verify the production of outputs.

10 Outputs are tangibleresults that can be delivered within a short timeframe. This means that the output itself may bemeasurable and may clearly indicate how to verify that it has been produced. Output indicatorsare most useful to project managers, who are responsible for the production of outputs and theirrelevance to the outcome in question. For the output district school teachers trained , for example , an output indicator couldbe created simply by adding a target such as 50 teachers trained by end 2001 . In the SRF, outputs have annual targets. For the outcome increased public debate onsustainable human development (SHD) , one UNDP country office used the followingoutputs: seminars for Ministers of Parliament, journalists [..and others] , specializedprogrammes in the media and two National Human Development Reports (NHDRs) .For Specialized programmes in the media the target is promotion of SHD in at last 4media programmes and Resident Representative interventions on the media, in one year.