Southwest Florida Regional Economic Indicators - REIS

1 Southwest Florida Regional Economic Indicators December 2017 VOLUME XI NUMBER 12 Regional Economic Research Institute Lutgert College Of Business 10501 FGCU Blvd. South Fort Myers, FL 33965 Phone 239-590-7090 2 Table of Contents Introduction: Regional and National Background .. 4 Airport Passenger Activity .. 5 Chart 1: SW Florida International Passenger 5 Chart 2: Punta Gorda Airport Passenger Activity .. 6 Chart 3: Sarasota Airport Passenger Activity .. 6 Tourist Tax Revenues .. 7 Chart 4: Tourist Tax Revenues for the Coastal Counties .. 7 Chart 5: Coastal County Tourist Tax Revenues .. 8 Taxable Sales .. 8 Chart 6: Taxable Sales for 5 County Region .. 9 Chart 7: Taxable Sales for Coastal Counties .. 9 Chart 8: Taxable Sales for Inland Counties .. 10 Workforce Labor Force, Employment and 10 Chart 9: Lee County Labor Force and Unemployment .. 11 Chart 10: Collier County Labor Force and Unemployment.

2 11 Chart 11: Charlotte County Labor Force and 12 Chart 12: Hendry County Labor Force and Unemployment .. 12 Chart 13: Glades County Labor Force and Unemployment .. 13 Single-Family Building Permits .. 13 Chart 14: Single-Family Building Permits for Lee County .. 14 Chart 15: Single-Family Building Permits for Collier County .. 14 Chart 16: Single-Family Building Permits for Charlotte County .. 15 Existing Single Family Home Sales and Median Prices .. 15 Chart 17: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Lee County .. 15 Chart 18: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Collier County .. 16 Chart 19: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Charlotte County .. 17 Consumer Sentiment Index .. 17 Chart 20: Index of Consumer Sentiment .. 18 Chart 21: Florida Consumer Sentiment Index .. 18 3 Consumer Price Index .. 19 Chart 22: CPI Annual Percentage 19 Chart 23: Miami-Fort Lauderdale CPI Component Percentage Change .. 20 Appendix: Trends in Regional Population, GDP, Unemployment, and Industry Diversification.

3 20 Chart A1: Coastal Counties Population, 1990 to 2040 .. 21 Chart A2: Inland Counties Population, 1990 to 2040 .. 21 Chart A3: Historic and Projected GDP Growth, 2007 to Long Run .. 22 Chart A4: Historic and Projected Unemployment, 2007 to Long Run .. 23 Chart A5: Industry Diversification Index, 2005 to 2016 .. 24 Regional Economic Indicators is published monthly by the staff and students of the Regional Economic Research Institute at Florida Gulf Coast University. Dr. Chris Westley, Director, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: 239-590-7090 Email: Mr. Steven Scheff, Business Analyst, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: 239-590-7315 Email: Mr. Jim Breitbach, Technical Support, Regional Economic Research Institute Email: Copyright 2017 FGCU - All rights reserved. 4 Introduction: Regional and National Background Southwest Florida exhibited signs of recovery following the aftermath of Hurricane Irma s landfall in September.

4 Positive signs included a 51-percent month-to-month increase in single-family building permits issued in October 2017 and a 24-percent month-to-month increase in existing single-family home sales recorded in October 2017. However, Irma s effects could be seen in the 16-percent decrease in airport passenger activity from September 2016 to September 2017. Southwest Florida s unemployment rate declined from percent in September to percent in October 2017. The region s unemployment rate came in just below the state of Florida s percent and well below the national rate of percent. As noted last month, caution should continue to be exercised when interpreting changes in unemployment data from September, due to the data collection process being potentially disrupted by Hurricane Irma. Other highlights in the report include: Tourist tax revenues remained largely unaffected from Hurricane Irma, increasing 5 percent from September 2016 to September 2017.

5 While single-family median prices declined for all three coastal counties from September 2017 to October 2017, all three counties experienced an increase when compared to October 2016. The Florida consumer sentiment index improved to in November 2017, up points from the previous month and points from the previous year. The RERI staff extends its sincere thanks and appreciation to the dedicated individuals and organizations who contribute to this report. These include FGCU student workers affiliated with the RERI, the Southwest Florida Regional Planning Council, the Economic Development Organizations of Charlotte, Collier, and Lee counties, the Convention and Visitors Bureaus of Charlotte, Collier and Lee counties, the Regional airport authorities, the Realtors of Collier, Lee, and Charlotte counties, the University of Florida Survey Research Center, and the county and city permit offices. 5 Airport Passenger Activity Airport passenger activity is the sum of arrivals and departures for Southwest Florida International (RSW), Sarasota Bradenton International (SRQ), and Punta Gorda (PGD) airports.

6 Peak seasonal activity occurs in February, March, and April, with significantly lower activity in the summer months. Charts 1, 2, and 3 illustrate this seasonality as well as the changes from year to year. Passenger activity for the three airports totaled 440,271 in September 2017, representing a decrease of 84,745 (16 percent) from September 2016. The decline reflects the anticipation and destruction caused by Hurricane Irma. RSW recorded 327,466 passengers in September 2017, down 16 percent from September 2016 (see Chart 1). Passenger activity in Punta Gorda dropped to 51,836 in September, creating a unique year-to-year decline at this facility of 19-percent from September 2016 (Chart 2). Sarasota Bradenton s passenger activity dipped to 60,969 in September 2017, down 12 percent from September 2016 (Chart 3). Chart 1: SW Florida International Passenger Activity Source: Local Airport Authorities 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecArri vals plus Departures -Thousands SW Florida International Airport (RSW) Passenger Activity20142015201620176 Chart 2: Punta Gorda Airport Passenger Activity Source: Local Airport Authorities Chart 3: Sarasota Airport Passenger Activity Source: Local Airport Authorities 201420152017020406080100120140160 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecArri vals plus Departures -Thousands Punta Gorda Airport (PGD) Passenger Activity5075100125150175 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecArri vals plus Departures -Thousands Sarasota Bradenton Int'l Airport (SRQ) Passenger Activity20142015201620177 Tourist Tax Revenues Seasonally-adjusted tourist tax revenues, shown in Charts 4 and 5, are based on month of occupancy.

7 Notwithstanding the impact of Hurricane Irma, total revenues for the three coastal counties rose to $5,982,969 in September 2017, an increase of 5 percent over September 2016, and 15-percent higher than the prior month of August 2017. All three counties experienced seasonally-adjusted increases in September, as depicted in Charts 4 and 5. In Lee County, September 2017 seasonally-adjusted revenues increased to $3,624,435, up 5 percent over the September 2016 figure. Collier County s seasonally-adjusted tourist tax revenues were $1,995,768 in September 2017, a 4-percent increase from September 2016. In Charlotte County, tourist tax revenues rose to $354,100 in September 2017, an increase of less than 1-percent from September 2016. Chart 4: Tourist Tax Revenues for the Coastal Counties Source: Local County Tourism, Tax, and Economic Development Reports 0246810121416 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Monthly Tourst Tax Revenue -MillionsTourist Tax Revenue 2012 to Present: 3 Coastal Counties TotalUnadjusted DataSeasonally Adjusted (SA) Data8 Chart 5: Coastal County Tourist Tax Revenues Source: Local County Tourism, Tax, and Economic Development Reports and seasonal adjustment by RERI Taxable Sales Taxable sales data track consumer spending based on the latest month of merchant collections.

8 This data lags one month before the Florida Department of Revenue s usual reporting month. Given that there was no data release in November, this data is current through August 2017. Both seasonally-adjusted and unadjusted taxable sales for the region are shown in Chart 6. Total seasonally-adjusted taxable sales in August 2017 were $ billion, up 2 percent from August 2016, but down 1 percent from July 2017. Charts 7 and 8 show seasonally-adjusted taxable sales for the coastal and inland counties, respectively. Lee County s taxable sales increased to $ billion in August 2017, up 2 percent from August 2016. Collier County s taxable sales increased from $ million in August 2016 to $ million in August 2017, an improvement of 2 percent. Charlotte County taxable sales rose from $ million in August 2016 to $ million in August 2017, an increase of 1 percent. Taxable sales in Hendry County totaled to $ million in August 2017, compared to million in August 2016.

9 Glades County taxable sales were $ million in August 2017, an increase of 10 percent from August 2016. All cited data are seasonally-adjusted. Tourist Tax Revenue -$ MillionsCounty Tourist Tax Revenue -2012 to presentCharlotteCollierLee9 Chart 6: Taxable Sales for 5 County Region Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research Chart 7: Taxable Sales for Coastal Counties Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research Taxable Sales -$ BillonsTaxable Sales 2012 to Present -5 County RegionUnadjusted DataSeasonally Adjusted (SA) Data02004006008001,0001,2001,400 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Monthly Taxabkle Sales -$ MillionsCoastal County Taxable Sales -2012 to PresentAll Data Seasonally AdjustedLeeCollierCharlotte10 Chart 8: Taxable Sales for Inland Counties Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research Workforce Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment Charts 9-13 show total persons employed and unemployed, and the unemployment rate, all seasonally adjusted by the RERI, for each county from January 2005 through October 2017.

10 The unemployment rate for the five-county region again edged downward in October 2017 to percent, down from percent in September 2017 and from percent in October 2016. While 110 fewer people were employed compared to September 2017, the seasonally-adjusted number of unemployed declined by 320. Lee County s seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate dropped to percent in October 2017, a decrease of points from September 2017, as depicted in Chart 9. Collier County s unemployment rate rose from percent in September 2017 to percent in October 2017 (Chart 10). The unemployment rate in Charlotte County decreased, from percent in September 2017 to percent in October 2017 (Chart 11). Hendry County s October 2017 unemployment rate remained unchanged from September 2017 at percent (Chart 12). Similarly, the unemployment rate for Glades County was percent in both October and September 2017 (Chart 13). Florida s seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate declined to percent in October 2017, down points from September 2017 and points below the October 2016 figure.