Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators

1 Stock Market Indicators :Fundamental, Sentiment ,& TechnicalYardeni research , 23, 2018Dr. Edward visit our sites outside the boxTable Of ContentsTable Of ContentsTable Of ContentsAugust 23, 2018 / Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators research , Stock Market Indicator1-2 Global Growth Barometer3 Economic Surprise Index4 Investors Intelligence Sentiment5 Bull/Bear Ratio Over Ratio Under Ratio Under & Over Sentiment9 Bull/Bear Ratio vs. Consumer Confidence10S&P 500 Put Call Ratio11 Volatility12 Volume13 Dow Theory14S&P 500 Moving Averages15-16S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index & 200-dma17S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Minus 200-dma18S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Relative to S&P 5001992939495969798990001020304050607080 9101112131415161718192040608010012014016 0200400600800100012001400160018002000220 024002600280030008/11 YRI FUNDAMENTAL Stock Market indicator and S&P 500 INDEXS&P 500 IndexYRI Fundamental StockMarket indicator ** Average of Consumer Comfort Index and Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims,four-week moving : Bloomberg, Commodity research Bureau, Department of Labor, and Standard & Poor s BOOM-BUST BAROMETER & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEXBoom-Bust Barometer*Consumer Comfort Index * CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving.

2 Bloomberg, Commodity research Bureau, Department of Stock Market IndicatorPage 1 / August 23, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators : Fundamental, Sentiment , & Technical research , 500 INDEX & INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICESS&P 500 IndexCRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Index Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Commodity research 500 INDEX & INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMSI nitial Unemployment Claims(thousands, sa, four-week moving average,inverted scale)S&P 500 Index Source: US Department of Labor and Standard & Poor Stock Market IndicatorPage 2 / August 23, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators : Fundamental, Sentiment , & Technical research , GLOBAL GROWTH BAROMETER (on S&P 500 basis) & S&P 500 YRI Global Growth Barometer* ( )S&P 500 Index ( )* Average of Brent crude oil and CRB raw industrials spot price index times 2 and divided by 10. Average then multiplied by 10 and 200 : Standard & Poor s Corporation and Commodity research US Stock PRICES vs.

3 BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICEB rent Crude Oil Price*(dollars per barrel)S&P 500 IndexSource: Financial Times and Standard & Poor s Corporation.* Nearby futures Growth BarometerPage 3 / August 23, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators : Fundamental, Sentiment , & Technical research , 500 INDEX vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX(percent)S&P 500 minus its200 day-moving averageEconomic Surprise : Wall Street Journal and 500 P/E vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX(percent)Economic Surprise IndexS&P 500 Forward P/E* : Standard & Poor s, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Citigroup.* Average weekly price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per Surprise IndexPage 4 / August 23, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators : Fundamental, Sentiment , & Technical research , 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2001234560123456 Ratio Aug 7 Aug 14 Aug 21 8/21 INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS & BEARSR atioBull/BearRatio*87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2010203040506070801020304050607080 Bulls Bears Aug 7 Aug 14 Aug 21 8/21 PercentageBullsBears87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2051015202530354045505101520253035404550 Correction Aug 7 Aug 14 Aug 21 8.

4 Investors Intelligence SentimentPage 5 / August 23, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators : Fundamental, Sentiment , & Technical research , 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2020060010001400180022002600300034002006 001000140018002200260030003400S&P 500 INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OR MORE*(ratio scale)8 * Red shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than : Standard & Poor s and Investors 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2016006600116001660021600266003160016006 6001160016600216002660031600 DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OR MORE*(ratio scale)8 * Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than : Wall Street Journal and Investors Ratio Over 6 / August 23, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators : Fundamental, Sentiment , & Technical research , 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2020060010001400180022002600300034002006 001000140018002200260030003400S&P 500 INDEX vs BULL/BEAR RATIOOF OR LESS*(ratio scale)8 * Green shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than : Standard & Poor s and Investors 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2016006600116001660021600266003160016006 6001160016600216002660031600 DOW JONES INDEX vs.

5 BULL/BEAR RATIOOF OR LESS*(ratio scale)8 * Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than : Wall Street Journal and Investors Ratio Under 7 / August 23, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators : Fundamental, Sentiment , & Technical research , 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-40-2002040-40-2002040S&P 500 % FROM RATIO OF OR MORE*8/23* Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or more than : Standard & Poor s 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-40-2002040-40-2002040S&P 500 % FROM RATIO OF OR LESS*8/23* Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than : Standard & Poor s Ratio Under & Over 8 / August 23, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators : Fundamental, Sentiment , & Technical research , Sentiment INDEX FOR STOCKSAAII Bull Ratio*2005200620072008200920102011201220 132014201520162017201820190123450123458/ 22 AAII Bull/Bear Ratio20052006200720082009201020112012201 3201420152016201720182019010203040506070 8001020304050607080 Latest Readings Bulls Bears Aug 15 Aug 22 8/22 BullsBears* AAII Bull Ratio is the percent of bulls over the percent of bulls plus percent of : American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).

6 SentimentPage 9 / August 23, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators : Fundamental, Sentiment , & Technical research , RATIO & CONSUMER CONFIDENCE Bull/Bear Ratio(4-week average)Consumer ConfidenceExpectations : New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and the Conference RATIO & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX Bull/Bear Ratio(4-week average)Consumer Comfort : New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and Ratio vs. Consumer ConfidencePage 10 / August 23, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators : Fundamental, Sentiment , & Technical research , 500 PUT/CALL(weekly data)Average = (1996-2010)Source: Chicago Board of Options 500 PUT/CALL(4-week ma)Average = (1996-2010)Source: Chicago Board of Options 500 Put Call RatioPage 11 / August 23, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators : Fundamental, Sentiment , & Technical research , : S&P 500 Source: Chicago Board Options : NASDAQ 100 Source: Chicago Board Options 12 / August 23, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators : Fundamental, Sentiment , & Technical research , 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201924681012246810128/17 NEW YORK Stock EXCHANGE WEEKLY VOLUME(billion shares, 4-week moving average)52-week moving averageSource.

7 Wall Street Journal and Haver 13 / August 23, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators : Fundamental, Sentiment , & Technical research , JONES Stock AVERAGES(ratio scale)Industrials (DJIA)Transportation (DJTA) Source: The Wall Street 500 Stock INDEXES(ratio scale)Industrials Composite*Transportation Composite * S&P 500 excluding Financials, Transports, and : Standard & Poor TheoryPage 14 / August 23, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators : Fundamental, Sentiment , & Technical research , (510) (69) (154) (27) (59) (61) (27) (94)* Dips are declines of less than 10%. Corrections are declines of 10% to 20%. Bear markets are declines of 20% or more. Number of days in 500 INDEX: 2008-2017*(log scale)S&P 500 ( )200-day moving average ( )50-day moving average ( )Source: Standard & Poor s 500 INDEX(as a percent of 200-day moving average)% from 200-day moving average ( )Source: Standard & Poor 500 Moving AveragesPage 15 / August 23, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators : Fundamental, Sentiment , & Technical research , 500 INDEX*Latest price: : : * Ratio ScaleSource: Standard & Poor s.

8 (+) Latest price is above the 50-dma.(+) Latest price is above the 500 INDEX TECHNICALSTHE DEATH CROSS & THE GOLDEN CROSS(50-dma relative to 200-dma, percent, weekly)( )Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor s 500 Moving AveragesPage 16 / August 23, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators : Fundamental, Sentiment , & Technical research , 500*(price indexes)06070809101112131415161718191252 754255757258758/23 INDUSTRIALS06070809101112131415161718191 0035060085011008/23 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY*06070809101112131415161718 19175575975137517758/23 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY060708091011121314151617181917 52753754755756758/23 CONSUMER STAPLES060708091011121314151617181910020 03004005008/23 MATERIALS0607080910111213141516171819300 4506007509008/23 ENERGY0607080910111213141516171819409014 01902402908/23 REAL ESTATE0607080910111213141516171819752253 755256758258/23 FINANCIALSI ncludes Real Estatethrough September 2016060708091011121314151617181975115155 1952358/23 TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES06070809101112131415161718192254 25625825102512258/23 HEALTH CARE Source.

9 Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor s moving average* S&P 500 sector price indexes on ratio 500 Sectors Stock Price Index & 200-dmaPage 17 / August 23, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators : Fundamental, Sentiment , & Technical research , 500(price index as percentage of 200-dma)% from 200-dma ( )0607080910111213141516171819-60-40-2002 0408/23 INDUSTRIALS( )0607080910111213141516171819-60-40-2002 0408/23 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY( )0607080910111213141516171819-60-40-2002 0408/23 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY( )0607080910111213141516171819-30-1501530 8/23 CONSUMER STAPLES( )0607080910111213141516171819-60-40-2002 0408/23 MATERIALS( )0607080910111213141516171819-60-40-2002 0408/23 ENERGY( )0607080910111213141516171819-75-50-2502 5508/23 REAL ESTATE( )0607080910111213141516171819-80-60-40-2 002040608/23 FINANCIALSI ncludes Real Estatethrough September 2016( )0607080910111213141516171819-40-2002040 8/23 TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES( )0607080910111213141516171819-30-1501530 8/23 HEALTH CARE( )Source: Standard & Poor s ( ) 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Minus 200-dmaPage 18 / August 23, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators .

10 Fundamental, Sentiment , & Technical research , 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 DISCRETIONARY(as a ratio of S&P 500 Index)02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 STAPLES02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 TECHNOLOGY02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 SERVICES02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CARE Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor s 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Relative to S&P 500 Page 19 / August 23, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators : Fundamental, Sentiment , & Technical research , (c) Yardeni research , Inc.