1 Sustainable Brazil Social and Economic Impacts of the 2014 World Cup Contents Introduction 01. Social and economic impacts 03. Economy will produce an additional R$ 142 billion 03. Changes throughout history 05. Tourist inflow boosts spending 06. Host cities: the various hearts of the World Cup 07. Domino effect 08. Direct and indirect socioeconomic impacts 08. Direct impacts in numbers 09. The core actions of the operation 13. The map of investments and their impacts on regional GDPs 14. Sustainable World Cup 16. Social-environmental responsibility at stake 16. Seven steps to the green Cup 18. Microeconomy and social impact 24. Thousands of microenterprises will benefit 24. Risks and constraints 26. Steeplechase 26. What do the host cities need? 26. Concern with the legacy 29. The risk of economic inefficiency 30. The unforeseeable external factors 31. Challenges and opportunities 32. How to maximize the positive effects of the World Cup?
2 32. Governance and planning 34. World Cup Master Plan for each host city 34. Monitoring, control and transparency 36. Project management focusing on risk analysis, control and monitoring 36. Financial management 38. BNDES linked to the World Cup 38. Regulatory environment 40. General Law of the World Cup and organizers' requirements 40. Infrastructure and services 42. Success factors 42. Human capital 46. The Cup will count on thousands of volunteers - mostly bilingual 46. Reputation management 48. Reputation gain may exceed financial gain 48. Legacy and sustainability 50. The Cup may leave tangible, institutional and social legacies 50. Introduction The Sustainable Brazil series, after Accordingly, this study has seven five publications that analyze objectives, in addition to its macroeconomic perspectives in the unprecedented aspects: housing, energy, consumer, industrial and agribusiness segments, brings into Estimate the social and economic light another issue that proves to be impacts of the 2014 World Cup on strategic not only for its wealth creation Brazil .
3 And multiplication capacity but also for the event's importance and magnitude: Establish metrics and indicators the 2014 World Cup. for implementation of the first Sustainable World Cup;. On October 30, 2007, the FIFA Executive Committee appointed Brazil as host of Indicate the impact of investments the tournament. With this, the country on regional GDPs for each host city;. will be the fifth to host the World Cup twice, after Mexico, Italy, France and Understand the impacts of the event Germany. However, the event's profile on sector GDPs of more than 30 macro has changed significantly since the and microeconomic segments;. 1950 World Cup. In 2014, we will have a large-sized tournament that will require Detail the management processes extensive preparation processes and for the successful outcome complex operations to be implemented. of a major event;. On the one hand, the World Cup will bring impacts and benefits whether Outline and assess the risks and temporary or long-lasting, whether direct gaps to achieve of positive impacts or indirect to different economic and and minimize negative impacts.
4 Social segments. On the other hand, it also presents several risks, requiring Show opportunities and initiatives effective management processes in the that increase and perpetuate public and private sectors for the full the benefits of this event for the flow of benefits to society. Brazilian society. Sustainable Brazil Social and Economic Impacts of the 2014 World Cup This study results from an association of In order to capture all these multiplier Ernst & Young Terco and the Funda o effects , this study developed an Getulio Vargas (FGV), and seeks to shed Extended Input-Output model based on light on a new scenario emerging in the the Input-Output Table of the Brazilian country with the World Cup which could Geography and Statistics Institute result in a number of opportunities for (Portuguese acronym - IBGE). growth if adequately addressed by the public and private sectors. This model represents the Brazilian economy by means of 55 economic The different extents of the socioeconomic activities, 110 product categories and impacts for the well-being of the Brazilian 10 income/spending profiles for the population will be perceived as a result population, and allows to estimate of several aspects.
5 These will depend the total (direct, indirect and induced). on the country's ability: to obtain the impacts of World Cup-related activities necessary investments and perform on domestic output, employment, actions in time for a successful event; to income, spending and tax collection. capitalize on the Cup's legacies, turning them into permanent assets; and, The forecasts used in this survey finally, to reach these objectives in an were driven, to the extent possible, economically effective manner, avoiding by comparable experiences and by the excessive disbursements and poor allocation financial planning of public bodies. of resources or opportunity costs. The impacts were measured according The idea is that Brazil gets organized in to specific criteria, such as the difference such a way that the event lasts not only in expenditures considering scenarios a few days, but for many years, leaving that include and exclude the World Cup. a positive legacy for society as a whole.
6 In addition, the costs of all operations More important than just responding to and acquisitions were regarded as outside expectations for the World Cup is stable so as to allow them to be summed the creation of an internal environment at any time until 2014, without the that allows the infrastructure works use of intertemporal discount rates. and the impacts on the macro and Possible fluctuations or trends in the microeconomy to improve the life of macroeconomic landscape were not Brazilian people. taken into consideration.. Social and economic impacts Economy will Cup's direct impact on the Brazilian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is impacts will not be permanent. In fact, once the investments have produce an additional estimated at R$ billion for the been concluded and the World period 2010-2014 an amount Cup has taken place, the positive R$ 142 billion equivalent to of estimated impacts will remain based on the GDP for 2010, namely R$ trillion.
7 Stakeholders' ability to benefit The benchmark scenario used in As the World Cup is a one-time from the event's opportunities and this study indicates that the 2014. event, most of its systematic legacies. Therefore, the evaluation World Cup will produce a surprising cascading effect on investments made in the country. The economy Consolidated impacts of the 2014 World Cup will snowball, increasing by five times the total amount invested directly in event-related activities a) Impact on final demand and impacting various industries. (World Cup-related expenditures in Brazil ) R$ billion In addition to the R$ billion Investments R$ billion spent by Brazil on the World Cup to Operating expenses R$ billion ensure an adequate infrastructure Visitors' expenses R$ billion and organization (see box on this b) Impact on national production of goods and services R$ billion page), the tournament will bring an c) Impact on income (generated by item a) R$ billion additional R$ billion to the d) Impact on employment (jobs/year generated by item a) million Brazilian economy, with indirect e) Impact on tax collection R$ billion and induced effects being produced thereafter.
8 In total, an additional R$ billion will flow in the country from 2010 to 2014, generating million jobs/year Sectors most benefiting (economic activities with major and R$ billion of income for increased output). the population, which will inevitably impact the domestic consumer market, as shown in the table on page 6. This production will also result in Civil Food and Business Electricity and Information Tourism &. an additional tax collection of R$ construction beverage services gas, water, services hospitality billion by the local, state and sanitation and urban cleaning federal governments. The World Table 1. Sustainable Brazil Social and Economic Impacts of the 2014 World Cup in the first part of this study is 2014 will depend on an accurate by R$ billion. limited to the period 2010-2014. schedule of implementation of Second to none on the list construction work and efforts. of benefiting segments, civil Thus, the job creation estimated construction will generate an by the study primarily refers to The sectors mostly benefiting additional R$ billion in the temporary jobs only.
9 The estimated from the World Cup will be period 2010-2014. Total output million jobs/year correspond, construction, food and beverage, from this segment for 2010 is as far as compensation is business services, utilities estimated at R$ billion. concerned, to million positions (electricity, gas, water, sanitation Other economic segments that will to be held for one year. The exact and urban cleaning) and take advantage of the World Cup distribution of this number information services. Together, all are, for example, business services of jobs/year over the period 2010- these areas will increase output and real estate services and rental, Direct and indirect impact on Brazilian sector GDPs Direct impact In millions of BRL (R$) Indirect impact Construction Business services Real estate services and rental Other services (condominiums, unions, NGOs etc.). Retail Financial brokerage and insurance Electricity and gas, water, sanitation and urban cleaning Information services Transportation, warehousing and courier services Lodging and restaurants (hospitality).
10 Food and beverage Agriculture, forestry and logging Clothing and accessories Marketing education Livestock and fisheries TOTAL. Oil and natural gas Pharmaceuticals 24. Public administration and social security sectors Cosmetics and toiletries Maintenance and repair services Other non-metallic mineral products Newspapers, magazines and CDs Furniture and sundry products Metal goods incl. machinery and equipment 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000. Table 2 GDP base year - 2010. The Cup should generate million jobs/year . and R$ billion income for the population in the period 2010-2014, besides an additional R$ billion in tax collections. with the former generating an and an estimated billion TV Many of the structures required additional R$ billion and the viewing audience. for the World Cup should be ready latter an additional R$ billion for the Confederations Cup, when over the period. The 2014 Worl Cup is likely to tests will be run for the arenas, have an even greater audience the various International Media Of the total R$ billion in and viewers, but will follow similar Centers (IMC) and the International estimated costs relating to the structural and organization Broadcasting Center (IBC).