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Texas Fire Potential Update - TICC Home Page

July 15th August 12thDaily TFS Wildfire Response by PSAA ugust 12thwas the first day since July 9thwithout a TFS fire response. This trend could continue for a few days as the state slowly dries from rainfall. The one area that could produce an initial attack response would be deep South DayThere are few areas within last week s Area of Concern that have not received at least one inch of rainfall over the last 7 days. Rain is ongoing now and forecast for this afternoon in the upper Rolling Plains from Childress to Wichita Falls. After today only isolated areas in last week s Area of Concern will not have received one inch rain is no Area of Concern for the coming week. There are no areas that will support significant fire activity for the coming week.

Texas Fire Potential Update. October 2. nd. 2018. Brad Smith Wildland Fire Analyst

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Transcription of Texas Fire Potential Update - TICC Home Page

1 July 15th August 12thDaily TFS Wildfire Response by PSAA ugust 12thwas the first day since July 9thwithout a TFS fire response. This trend could continue for a few days as the state slowly dries from rainfall. The one area that could produce an initial attack response would be deep South DayThere are few areas within last week s Area of Concern that have not received at least one inch of rainfall over the last 7 days. Rain is ongoing now and forecast for this afternoon in the upper Rolling Plains from Childress to Wichita Falls. After today only isolated areas in last week s Area of Concern will not have received one inch rain is no Area of Concern for the coming week. There are no areas that will support significant fire activity for the coming week.

2 Critically dry fuels with ERC above the 90thpercentile. Underlying Drought High risk fuel types7 Day14 Day7 and 14 Day Radar Estimated RainfallAccumulated amounts of one inch or more will bring about an active green up in herbaceous fuels 30 Day60 Day30 and 60 Day Percent of Normal RainfallThese maps include rainfall through 0700 hours on August 12th. Expect more improvement in rainfall deficits shown here when maps are updated to include yesterday s rainfall and rainfall that is ongoing today. Seasonal ERC Trends1 PSAs Above Seasonal Average 1 PSAs at Seasonal Average 12 PSAs Below Seasonal Average ERC values will continue to drop over the next two days as moisture is added to the graphs. ERC values will be slow to rebound after the rain ends as drying Potential will be low through the week with elevated minimum RH each Day Fuel Dryness TrendsFuel moisture levels have increased with the rainfall that began on the 8thand continues today.

3 Only one station in the Rio Grande Valley is reporting critical Fuel Dryness. Fuel Dryness will improve in the Wichita Falls area with rainfall occurringtoday. There will not be a quick rebound back to critically dry fuels as drying Potential will be low this Day ERC TrendsERC values within last week s Area of Concern have dropped or will drop below the 75thpercentile by Wednesday once the rainfall ends. The increase in fuel moistures will require an increase in the fire weather thresholds for fire Potential August 13ththrough August 19th Substantial herbaceous greenup is expected across the Hill Country, Rolling Plains and North Texas with the accumulated rainfall over the last 7 days. Increased fuel moistures and normal Fuel Dryness will require higher fire weather thresholds to produce initial attack activity.

4 Temperature threshold was 95 degreesnow 95 degrees RH threshold was 30%now less than 25% Wind threshold was 8-12 mph now 15-20 mph Drying Potential will be low this week which will slow the rebound of ERC and Fuel Dryness.


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