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The 2021 Ageing Report - European Commission

Economic and Financial AffairsThe2021 Ageing ReportISSN 2443-8014 (online)Underlying Assumptions & Projection MethodologiesINSTITUTIONAL PAPER 142 | NOVEMBER 2020 European ECONOMYE uropean Economy Institutional Papers are important reports analysing the economic situation and economic developments prepared by the European Commission 's Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, which serve to underpin economic policy-making by the European Commission , the Council of the European Union and the European Parliament. Views expressed in unofficial documents do not necessarily represent the views of the European Commission . LEGAL NOTICE Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the European Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of the information contained in this publication.

Council gave to the Economic Policy Committee (EPC) in 2018 to update and further deepen its common exercise of age-related expenditure projections, on the basis of a new population projection by Eurostat. The forthcoming 2021 Ageing Report analyses the long-term projections of the budgetary impact of

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Transcription of The 2021 Ageing Report - European Commission

1 Economic and Financial AffairsThe2021 Ageing ReportISSN 2443-8014 (online)Underlying Assumptions & Projection MethodologiesINSTITUTIONAL PAPER 142 | NOVEMBER 2020 European ECONOMYE uropean Economy Institutional Papers are important reports analysing the economic situation and economic developments prepared by the European Commission 's Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, which serve to underpin economic policy-making by the European Commission , the Council of the European Union and the European Parliament. Views expressed in unofficial documents do not necessarily represent the views of the European Commission . LEGAL NOTICE Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the European Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of the information contained in this publication.

2 This paper exists in English only and can be downloaded from Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2020 PDF ISBN 978-92-76-16331-2 ISSN 2443-8014 KC-BC-20-019-EN-N European Union, 2020 Reuse is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. The reuse policy of European Commission documents is regulated by Decision 2011/833/EU (OJ L 330, , p. 39). For any use or reproduction of material that is not under the EU copyright, permission must be sought directly from the copyright holders. CREDIT Cover photography: European Commission Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs The 2021 Ageing Report Underlying Assumptions and Projection Methodologies European ECONOMY Institutional Paper 142 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ii This Report has been prepared as part of the mandate the Economic and Financial Affairs (ECOFIN) Council gave to the Economic Policy Committee (EPC) in 2018 to update and further deepen its common exercise of age-related expenditure projections, on the basis of a new population projection by Eurostat.

3 The forthcoming 2021 Ageing Report analyses the long-term projections of the budgetary impact of demographic Ageing in the European Union in the period 2019 2070. It will be calculated on the basis of the macroeconomic assumptions and methodologies described in this Report . The 2021 vintage will be the sixth edition of the Ageing Report and is envisaged to be presented to the ECOFIN Council in spring 2021. In response to the mandate, the EPC mandated a working group, the Ageing Working Group (AWG) under the chairmanship of Godwin Mifsud, to take forward the work needed to discharge this remit. This Report is presented by the EPC and the European Commission (Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs - DG ECFIN) after full discussion on the basis of the AWG s comprehensive work.

4 DG ECFIN provided the necessary analysis and calculations underpinning the Report . Eurostat prepared the demographic projections. The Report was prepared under the supervision of Lucio Pench (Director in DG ECFIN), Wolfgang Merz (Chair of the EPC), Godwin Mifsud (Chair of the AWG), Giuseppe Carone (Head of Unit in DG ECFIN). The main contributors were Pedro Arevalo, Santiago Calvo Ramos, Ben Deboeck, Per Eckefeldt, Nicola Gagliardi, Boriana Goranova, Fabrice Orlandi, Anda Patarau and the members of the AWG (see list of Members below). The EPC and DG ECFIN would like to thank all those concerned. Comments on the Report would be gratefully received at the following addresses: DG ECFIN - Unit C2 Secretariat of the Economic Policy Committee iii MEMBERS OF THE Ageing WORKING GROUP CHAIRMAN Mr.

5 Godwin MIFSUD Ministry of Finance, Malta BELGIQUE-BELGI Ms. Nicole FASQUELLE Bureau f d ral du Plan - Federaal Planbureau Mr. Peter WILLEME Bureau f d ral du Plan - Federaal Planbureau BULGARIA Mr. Kaloyan KOLEV Ministry of Finance Ms. Penka TANEVA National Social Security Institute CZECH REPUBLIC Mr. Zbynek STORK Ministry of Finance Mr. Jindrich MARVAL Ministry of Finance DANMARK Mr. Soren ARNBERG Ministry of Finance Mr. Sandru SURENDRAN Ministry of Finance BUNDESREPUBLIK DEUTSCHLAND Ms. Clara WELTEKE Federal Ministry of Finance Mr. Fran ois PEGLOW Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs ESTONIA Mr.

6 Risto KAARNA Ministry of Finance Ms. Tonu LILLELAID Ministry of Finance ELLAS Ms. Angeliki ZOULAKI National Actuarial Authority Ms. Eirini ANDRIOPOULOU Ministry of Finance ESPA A Mr. Javier HERN NDEZ Ministry of Economic Affairs and Digital Transformation Mr. Alfonso SAHUQUILLO Ministry of Finance iv FRANCE Mr. Misha KHODABIN French Ministry for the Economy and Finance Mr. Hamza ZAKRAOUI French Ministry for the Economy and Finance CROATIA Ms. Josipa MESTROVIC Ministry of Labour and Pension System Ms. Ljiljana MARUSIC Croatian Pension Insurance Institute IRELAND Mr.

7 Diarmaid SMYTH Department of Finance Mr. David HUGHES Department of Finance ITALIA Mr. Marco CACCIOTTI Ministero dell'Economia e delle Finanze Ms. Elena FABRIZI Ministero dell'Economia e delle Finanze CYPRUS Mr. Costas STAVRAKIS Ministry of Labour, Welfare and Social Insurance Ms. Maria MATSI Ministry of Finance LATVIA Ms. J lija BUR E Ministry of Finance Ms. Sandra STABI A Ministry of Welfare LITHUANIA Ms. Rasa SLIOGERIENE Ministry of Finance Ms. Vidija PASTUKIENE Ministry of Social Security and Labour LUXEMBOURG Mr. Tom HAAS STATEC Mr. Kevin EVERARD Inspection G n rale de la Securit Sociale HUNGARY Ms.

8 Ren ta N METH-SZ CS State Treasury Mr. Kriszti n LOSONCZI Ministry of Finance v MALTA Mr. Andrew CASSAR OVEREND Ministry of Finance Ms. Anna BONNICI Ministry of Finance NEDERLAND Ms. Iris VAN TILBURG Centraal Planbureau Mr. Sam PEEPERKORN Ministry of Finance STERREICH Mr. Peter GRAFENEDER Bundesministerium f r Finanzen Mr. Armin HEINRICH Bundesministerium f r Finanzen POLAND Ms. Joanna STACHURA Ministry of Finance Mr. Pawel STRZELECKI National Bank of Poland PORTUGAL Ms. Conceicao NUNES Ministry of Finance Ms.

9 Rita FIGUEIRAS Ministry of Labour, Solidarity, and Social Security ROMANIA Mr. Daniel VALCU Ministry of Public Finance Mr. Lucian NOVAK National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis SLOVENIA Ms. Lejla FAJIC Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development Mr. Franci KLUZER Ministry of Finance SLOVAKIA Mr. Jakub FODOR Ministry of Finance Ms. Alexandra SALAMONOVA Ministry of Finance SUOMI FINLAND Mr. Olli PALMEN Ministry of Finance Mr. Ilari AHOLA Ministry of Finance vi SVERIGE Mr. Jonas NORLIN Ministry of Finance Mr.

10 Olle SUNDBERG Ministry of Health and Social Affairs OBSERVERS NORWAY Mr. Yngvar DYVI Ministry of Finance ECB Mr. Marien FERDINANDUSSE Eurostat Mr. Didier DUPRE Mr. Giampaolo LANZIERI EPC Secretariat Ms. Laura RUUD Mr. Balazs HORVATH European Commission Mr. Giuseppe CARONE Ms. St phanie PAMIES CONTENTS vii Executive Summary 1 1. 2021 Ageing Report : mandate and general principles 1 2. Main results: the economic impact of population Ageing 3 Part I: Underlying assumptions and projection methodologies 13 1. Population 14 Introduction 14 Developments and assumptions for fertility rates 14 Developments and assumptions for life expectancy 16 Developments and assumptions for net migration 18 Overall results of the 2019-based population projections 22 Demographic Ageing in a global context 25 Comparison with the demographic scenario underlying the 2018 Ageing Report projections 26 2.


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