The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030 - Deloitte

1 The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030 1. The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030 . More info and the video : 02. The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030 . 04. 05. 07. 11. 13. 23. 25. 26. 03. The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030 . Introduction: a market on the move On-demand-services will disrupt the TV and video industry, New market players such as Netflix or Amazon will soon replace traditional broadcasters, Consumers' demand for TV and video consumption is fundamentally changing. Established players are increasingly confronted with this kind of alarming news about their positioning within the future TV and video landscape .

2 But will these dramatic predictions really The Deloitte Digital Media Trends Survey This rapidly changing market landscape come true? TV and video are indeed 2018 states that almost 48% of all United makes future predictions difficult, if not facing much uncertainty, and the extent States consumers stream television content impossible. We therefore adopted a more of change in the sector is hard to foresee. every day or Likewise in the United holistic approach and we now invite you to Streaming services no longer serve as just a Kingdom, streaming video services have travel with us to the year 2030 to take a peek platform for movies and TV shows they are gained in importance; already, 41% of all at four scenarios envisioning the future of TV.

3 Also investing in producing and licensing consumers purchased such a service in the and video . Our scenario approach does not their own content. This places them in United Even in the more aim to predict the most likely outcome but direct competition with the traditional TV conservative German TV market, 44% of the rather illustrates what could plausibly and video industry. At the same time, TV population make use of subscription-based happen in the world of TV and video . It also channels and media organizations are video -on-demand (SVoD) at least once a suggests how today's market players might starting their own on-demand offerings. With the success of video -on-demand adapt to deal with the many changes and Also, large content producers are setting up (VoD), consumers increasingly expect uncertainties there will be along the way.

4 Their own streaming services. relevant content accessible at any time, in From another perspective, on-demand- any place, and in the format that best fits services have quickly changed consumers' their needs. demand for TV and video consumption. Fig. 1 Average weekly video content consumption (in hours). Among Total Consumers 27. 23 22 22. 20. 17 16 17. 15 15. 8 10. 7 8. Live broadcast TV. Streaming video Japan United Germany France Brazil United China States Kingdom 1. Digital Media Trends Survey 2018 (United States) ; 2 Deloitte 's Digital Democracy Survey 2018 (global); 3 Deloitte Media Consumer Survey 2018 (Germany) 04. The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030.

5 Scenario thinking The highly dynamic TV and video market It is thus necessary to generate a set of is characterized by emerging new market scenarios , each of them describing a specific, offerings, disruptive digital players, and plausible world of the future which rapidly changing consumer requirements. substantially differs from the others. In this uncertain environment, the strategic steps of relevant stakeholders will be The objective of scenario design thus is not crucial factors influencing the future market to identify future events, but rather to landscape . What they decide today will have emphasize relevant forces that move the major effects on their future consumer future in different directions.

6 scenarios are relationships, the market structure, and narratives of alternative future environments technological standards. in which today's decisions might play out: they are neither predictions nor strategies. Conventional strategic analysis seldom By making the driving forces visible, strategic manages well in such highly uncertain planners can consider them and adapt their environments, whereas scenario design strategy accordingly. is one approach that can look beyond the usual planning horizon of three to five years. While predicting the future is clearly impossible, scenario design isolates the risks and opportunities of certain strategic issues.

7 It helps in developing robust strategies that will work in different potential futures. 05. The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030 . Scenario design is an approach that can look beyond the usual planning horizon of three to five years. It helps develop robust strategies that will work in different potential futures. 06. The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030 . The underlying drivers and how we derived them The foundation of our scenarios is a comprehensive set of underlying drivers Traditional TV and nonlinear content that potentially shape the future of the TV. and video industry. We therefore conducted offerings will coexist.

8 New and existing expert interviews and made use of our unique external environment analysis based players will reposition along the value on Natural Language Processing (NLP). algorithms. The resulting drivers were then chain in a partly consolidated market. clustered into social, technological, economic, environmental, and political factors (STEEP) and rated with regard to their degree of uncertainty and their impact on the TV and video industry (see Figure 1). 07. The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030 . Fig. 2 Driver evaluation according to degree of impact and degree of uncertainty High Demand for Market entry Distribution Importance Content TV Broad- Average Level of exclusive content on-demand of tech / of TV and of sport/.

9 Importance aggregator advertising caster time in national broadcasting content internet video event of live spending role spent with giants content licensing content Relative importance TV/ video on TV of linear broadcasting in contrast Level of intellectual to non-linear/ on-demand services property regulation Influence Number of Cooperation Ownership of of between players content Role of OTTs Broadcaster sports rights aging producers revenue streams Introduction of Content Net viewership Quality media regulation rights neutrality In-car of digital TV for online/ mobile infrastructure pure offerings relevancy advertising Global measurement media market Regulation Advertising Owner of the consolidation Convergence of of media Producer focus advertising company ownership relationship Availability advertising markets Zone of interest National economic Advertising Level of Capability of All-IP climate sales market Requirements of data media approach regulation for employees analytics networks Piracy Sensitivity in media regarding Ability of AI to Convenience of data privacy Legal influence Cybersecurity technological progress Digital restrictions Digitalization audience of video / TV capability of in national Attractiveness production Polarization of Advertising

10 Demand for general advertising of national payment Diversification public processes advertising in-home, large- Mobile video sector of players into sales screen entertainment relevancy for talents in the TV/ video Attractiveness and brand Data market of national Innovative monetization Ability of AI Demand for social Demand video sector capability Size of tools to content/ user-generated for micro- Degree of Impact for talents of video supplier Vertical predict content content payments suppliers ecosystems integration acceptance Medium National video / TV Length and Disruptive Content Development Education Transmission/ Length of Placement content consumption format of changes focus of cord on media/ Frequency program/ of advertising