The Global Risks Report 2020 - World Economic Forum

1 The Global RisksReport 2020 Insight Report 15th EditionIn partnership with Marsh & McLennan and Zurich Insurance ofurban planningAAsssseettbbuubbbblleeAsset bubblesDeflationFFiinnaanncciiaallffaaii lluurreeFinancial failureCCrriittiiccaalliinnffrraassttrru uccttuurreeffaaiilluurreeCritical infrastructurefailureFFiissccaallccrriis seessFiscal crisesUUnneemmppllooyymmeennttUnemployme ntIIlllliicciittttrraaddeeIllicit tradeEEnneerrggyypprriicceesshhoocckkEne rgy price shockUUnnmmaannaaggeeaabblleeiinnflflaat tiioonnUnmanageable inflationEExxttrreemmeewweeaatthheerrExt reme weatherCClliimmaatteeaaccttiioonnffaaiil luurreeClimate actionfailureBBiiooddiivveerrssiittyyllo ossssBiodiversity lossNNaattuurraallddiissaasstteerrssNatu ral disastersHHuummaann--mmaaddeeeennvviirro onnmmeennttaallddiissaasstteerrHuman-mad eenvironmental disastersNNaattiioonnaallggoovveerrnnaan ncceeffaaiilluurreeNationalgovernancefai lureGGlloobbaallggoovveerrnnaanncceeffaa iilluurreeGlobal governancefailureIInntteerrssttaatteecco onnflfliiccttInterstateconflictTTeerrrro orriissttaattttaacckkssTerrorist attacksSSttaatteeccoollllaappsseeState collapseWWeeaappoonnssooffmmaassssddeess ttrruuccttiioonnWeapons of massdestructionFFooooddccrriisseessFood crisesIInnvvoolluunnttaarryymmiiggrraatt iioonnInvoluntary

2 MigrationSSoocciiaalliinnssttaabbiilliit tyySocial instabilityIInnffeeccttiioouussddiisseea asseessInfectious diseasesWWaatteerrccrriisseessWater crisesAAddvveerrsseetteecchhnnoollooggii ccaallaaddvvaanncceessAdverse technologicaladvancesIInnffoorrmmaattiio onniinnffrraassttrruuccttuurreebbrreeaak kddoowwnnInformationinfrastructurebreakd ownCCyybbeerraattttaacckkssCyberattacksD DaattaaffrraauuddoorrtthheeffttData fraud or Global Risks Landscape 2020 Top 10 Risks in terms ofLikelihoodCategoriesTop 10 Risks in terms ofImpactExtreme weatherClimate action failureNatural disastersBiodiversity lossHuman-made environmental disastersData fraud or theftCyberattacksWater crisesGlobal governance failureAsset bubblesClimate action failureWeapons of mass destructionBiodiversity lossExtreme weatherWater crisesInformation infrastructure breakdownNatural disastersCyberattacksHuman-made environmental disastersInfectious :Survey respondents were asked to assess the likelihood of the individual Global risk on a scale of 1 to 5, 1representing a risk that is very unlikely to happen and 5 a risk that is very likely to occur.

3 They also assess the impacton each Global risk on a scale of 1 to 5 (1: minimal impact, 2: minor impact, 3: moderate impact, 4: severe impact and5: catastrophic impact). See Appendix B for more details. To ensure legibility, the names of the Global Risks areabbreviated; see Appendix A for the full name and : World Economic Forum Global RisksPerception Survey 2019 : World Economic Forum 2007-2020, Global Risks : Global Risks may not be strictly comparable across years, as definitions and the set of Global Risks have evolved with new issues emerging on the 10-year horizon. For example, cyberattacks, income disparity and unemployment entered the set of Global Risks in 2012.

4 Some Global Risks have been reclassified: water crises and income disparity were recategorized as societal Risks in the 2015 and 2014 Global Risks Reports, I: The Evolving Risks Landscape, 2007 20201st2nd3rd4th5th1st2nd3rd4th5thTop 5 Global Risks in Terms of LikelihoodTop 5 Global Risks in Terms of Impact2010200920082007201120122013201420 1520162017201820192020201020092008200720 20201120122013201420152016201720182019 EconomicEnvironmentalGeopoliticalSocieta lTechnologicalWeapons of mass destructionWeapons of mass destructionAsset price collapseFiscal crisesFinancial failureFinancial failure Climate action failureDeglobalization (developed)Climate change Water crises Water crisesExtreme weather Extreme weather Oil price spikesGeopolitical conflict Food crisesWater crises Water crises Chronic diseaseAsset price collapseNatural disastersFiscal crisesAsset price collapseDeglobalization (developed)Oil and gas price spikeChronic diseasesFiscal crisesBlow up in asset pricesDeglobalization (developed)

5 China hard landingOil price shockPandemicsBlow up in asset pricesDeglobalizationInterstate and civil warsPandemicsOil price shockEnergyprice volatility Energyprice volatility Weapons of massdestruction FiscalimbalancesFiscal crisesClimate action failureInfrastructurebreakdownWater crises Unemployment Water crisesInfectious diseasesWeapons of massdestructionInterstate conflictWeapons of mass destructionEnergy price shockWater crisesInvoluntary migrationWeapons of mass destructionExtreme weather Water crisesNatural disastersWeapons of mass destructionExtreme weather Water crises Natural disastersFiscalimbalancesClimate action failureClimate action failureClimate action failureClimate action failureClimate action failureExtreme weatherExtreme weatherAsset price collapseStorms and cyclones Income disparity Income disparity China Economic slowdownFloodingFiscal imbalancesFiscal imbalancesNatural disastersNatural disastersBiodiversity lossBiodiversity lossHuman-made environmental disastersChronic diseaseCorruptionGreenhouse gas emissionsData fraud or theft Fiscal crisesBiodiversity lossCyberattacksWater crisesCyberattacksGlobal governancegaps Climate change Water crisesPopulation ageingIncome disparityUnemployment Climate action failureCyberattacks Extreme weatherInterstate conflictFailure of nationalgovernanceState collapse or

6 CrisisUnemploymentExtreme weatherInvoluntary migrationInterstateconflict Natural catastrophes Extreme weatherExtreme weather Natural disastersTerrorist attacksData fraud or theftInvoluntary migrationExtreme weather CyberattacksData fraud or theftNatural disastersGreenhouse gas emissionsClimate action failureClimate action failureClimate action failureClimate action failureInfrastructure breakdownOil price shockChina hard landingBlow up in asset pricesChronic diseasesClimate action failureBlow up in asset pricesFailed and failing statesOil price shockChronic diseasesMiddle East instabilityAsset price collapseChronic diseasesGlobal governance gapsDeglobalization (emerging)China Economic ofurban planningAAsssseettbbuubbbblleeAsset bubblesDeflationFFiinnaanncciiaallffaaii lluurreeFinancial failureCCrriittiiccaalliinnffrraassttrru uccttuurreeffaaiilluurreeCritical infrastructurefailureFFiissccaallccrriis seessFiscal crisesUUnneemmppllooyymmeennttUnemployme ntIIlllliicciittttrraaddeeIllicit tradeEEnneerrggyypprriicceesshhoocckkEne rgy price shockUUnnmmaannaaggeeaabblleeiinnflflaat tiioonnUnmanageable inflationEExxttrreemmeewweeaatthheerrExt reme weatherCClliimmaatteeaaccttiioonnffaaiil luurreeClimate actionfailureBBiiooddiivveerrssiittyyllo ossssBiodiversity lossNNaattuurraallddiissaasstteerrssNatu ral

7 DisastersHHuummaann--mmaaddeeeennvviirro onnmmeennttaallddiissaasstteerrHuman-mad eenvironmental disastersNNaattiioonnaallggoovveerrnnaan ncceeffaaiilluurreeNationalgovernancefai lureGGlloobbaallggoovveerrnnaanncceeffaa iilluurreeGlobal governancefailureIInntteerrssttaatteecco onnflfliiccttInterstateconflictTTeerrrro orriissttaattttaacckkssTerrorist attacksSSttaatteeccoollllaappsseeState collapseWWeeaappoonnssooffmmaassssddeess ttrruuccttiioonnWeapons of massdestructionFFooooddccrriisseessFood crisesIInnvvoolluunnttaarryymmiiggrraatt iioonnInvoluntary migrationSSoocciiaalliinnssttaabbiilliit tyySocial instabilityIInnffeeccttiioouussddiisseea asseessInfectious diseasesWWaatteerrccrriisseessWater crisesAAddvveerrsseetteecchhnnoollooggii ccaallaaddvvaanncceessAdverse technologicaladvancesIInnffoorrmmaattiio onniinnffrraassttrruuccttuurreebbrreeaak kddoowwnnInformationinfrastructurebreakd ownCCyybbeerraattttaacckkssCyberattacksD DaattaaffrraauuddoorrtthheeffttData fraud or Global Risks Landscape 2020 Top 10 Risks in terms ofLikelihoodCategoriesTop 10 Risks in terms ofImpactExtreme weatherClimate action failureNatural disastersBiodiversity lossHuman-made environmental disastersData fraud or theftCyberattacksWater crisesGlobal governance failureAsset bubblesClimate action failureWeapons of mass destructionBiodiversity lossExtreme

8 WeatherWater crisesInformation infrastructure breakdownNatural disastersCyberattacksHuman-made environmental disastersInfectious :Survey respondents were asked to assess the likelihood of the individual Global risk on a scale of 1 to 5, 1representing a risk that is very unlikely to happen and 5 a risk that is very likely to occur. They also assess the impacton each Global risk on a scale of 1 to 5 (1: minimal impact, 2: minor impact, 3: moderate impact, 4: severe impact and5: catastrophic impact). See Appendix B for more details. To ensure legibility, the names of the Global Risks areabbreviated; see Appendix A for the full name and : World Economic Forum Global RisksPerception Survey 2019 II: The Global Risks Landscape 2020 Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2019 : Survey respondents were asked to assess the likelihood of the individual Global risk on a scale of 1 to 5, 1 representing a risk that is very unlikely to happen and 5 a risk that is very likely to occur.

9 They also assessed the impact of each Global risk on a scale of 1 to 5, 1 representing a minimal impact and 5 a catastrophic impact. To ensure legibility, the names of the Global Risks are abbreviated; see Appendix A for the full name and foor rmma at tiioonniinnf frraassttrruucct tuur reebbr reeaakkddoowwnnInformationinfrastructure breakdownAAsssseet t bbuubbbbl leeAsset bubblesDDeeflflaat tiioonnDeflationFFi innaanncci iaal l ffaai illuur reeFinancial failureCCr riittiiccaal l iinnf frraassttrruucct tuur reeffaai illuur reeCritical infrastructurefailureFFi issccaal l ccrriisseessFiscal crisesUUnneemmp pl looyymme ennt tUnemploymentIIlllliicci itt ttrraaddeeIllicit tradeEEnneerrggyy ppr riiccee sshhoocckkEnergy price shockUUnnmma annaaggeeaabbl lee iinnflflaat tiioonnUnmanageable inflationEExxttrreemme e wwe eaat thheerrExtreme weatherCCl liimma at tee aacct

10 Tiioonnffaai illuur reeClimate actionfailureBBi iooddi ivveerrssi ittyy lloossssBiodiversity lossNNaat tuur raal l ddi issaasstteerrssNatural disastersHHuumma ann--mma addeeeennvvi irroonnmme ennt taal l ddi issaasstteerrHuman-madeenvironm