The Skeptical Environmentalist

1 The Skeptical Environmentalist measuring the real State of the World Bj rn Lomborg published by the press syndicate of the university of cambridge The Pitt Building, Trumpington Street, Cambridge, United Kingdom cambridge university press The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 2RU, UK. 40 West 20th Street, New York, NY 10011 4211, USA. 10 Stamford Road, Oakleigh, VIC 3166, Australia Ruiz de Alarc n 13, 28014 Madrid, Spain Dock House, The Waterfront, Cape Town 8001, South Africa Originally published in Danish as Verdens Sande Tilstand 1998. and Bj rn Lomborg 1998. This revised and updated version, partially translated by Hugh Matthews first published in English by Cambridge University Press 2001. as The Skeptical Environmentalist Bj rn Lomborg 2001. This book is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press.

2 Printed in the United Kingdom at the University Press, Cambridge Typeface Swift 9/12 pt System QuarkXPress [s e ]. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloguing in Publication data Lomborg, Bj rn, 1965 . The Skeptical Environmentalist : measuring the real state of the world / Bj rn Lomborg. p. cm. Originally published in Danish as Verdens sande tilstand, 1998. This revised and updated version first published in English by Cambridge University Press, 2001 verso. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0 521 80447 7 ISBN 0 521 01068 3 (pb.). 1. Global environmental change. 2. Pollution. 3. Human ecology. I. Title. GE149 .L65 2001. dc21 00-068915. ISBN 0 521 80447 7 hardback ISBN 0 521 01068 3 paperback Contents List of figures page xii Part II: Human welfare List of tables xviii 3 measuring human welfare 45. Preface xvii How many people on earth? 45. Language and measures xix The changing demographics 47.

3 Acknowledgements xxii Overpopulation 48. Permissions xxiv 4 Life expectancy and health 50. Life expectancy 50. Part I: The Litany Life expectancy in the developing world 51. 1 Things are getting better 3 Infant mortality 53. The Litany 3 Illness 55. Things are better but not necessarily good 4 Conclusion 58. Exaggeration and good management 5. Fundamentals: trends 5 5 Food and hunger 60. Malthus and everlasting hunger 60. Fundamentals: global trends 6. More food than ever 61. Fundamentals: long-term trends 8. Lower prices than ever 62. Fundamentals: how is it important? 9. The Green Revolution 62. Fundamentals: people 11. Relative or absolute improvement? 64. Reality versus myths 12. Regional distribution: Africa 65. Reality: Worldwatch Institute 13. Regional distribution: China 66. Reality: World Wide Fund for Nature 16. Conclusion 67. Reality: Greenpeace 17. Is inflation-adjusted GDP a reasonable Reality: wrong bad statistics and economics 18.

4 Measure of wealth? 68. Reality: water problems 19. Reality: Pimentel and global health I 21 6 Prosperity 70. Reality: Pimentel and global health II 24 Poverty and distribution 71. Reality versus rhetoric and poor predictions 27 Ever greater inequality? 73. Reality 30 Poorer still? 75. Reality and morality 32 More consumer goods 78. More education 81. 2 Why do we hear so much bad news? 34. More leisure time 82. Research 35. More safety and security 84. The file drawer and data massage 36. Fewer catastrophes and accidents 85. Organizations 37. The media 39 7 Conclusion to Part II: unprecedented Lopsided reality: sporadic but predictable 39 human prosperity 87. Lopsided reality: bad news 40. Lopsided reality: conflict and guilt 41. The consequences 41. ix x Contents Part III: Can human prosperity Other resources 146. continue? Why do we have ever more resources? 147. Conclusion 148. 8 Are we living on borrowed time? 91. Resources the foundation for welfare 91 13 Water 149.

5 How much water in the world? 149. 9 Will we have enough food? 93 The three central problems 151. At least grain per capita is declining 93 Not enough water? 152. Declining productivity 95 Will it get worse in the future? 154. Limits to yields? 96 Will we see increased conflict? 156. Biomass 99 Conclusion 157. What about ordinary peasants? 100. Do we still need the high growth? 100 14 Conclusion to Part III: continued Grain stocks are dropping! 101 prosperity 159. What about China? 102. Should we worry about erosion? 104 Part IV: Pollution: does it undercut What about fish? 106 human prosperity? Conclusion 108. 15 Air pollution 163. 10 Forests are we losing them? 110 Air pollution in times past 163. Forests and history 112 What is dangerous? 165. Deforestation: a general view 112 Particles 167. Deforestation: how much? 114 Lead 170. How much forest? 115 SO2 172. Conclusion 117 Ozone 173. NOx 174. 11 Energy 118. CO 175. We are a civilization built on energy 118.

6 And the developing world? Both growth and Do we have enough energy to go on? 119. environment 175. The oil crisis 120. Conclusion 177. How much oil left? 121. Optimists and pessimists arguing 124 16 Acid rain and forest death 178. Ever more oil available 125. Other fossil energy sources 126 17 Indoor air pollution 182. Nuclear energy 128 Indoor air pollution in the developing world 182. Renewable energy 129 Indoor air pollution in the developed world 183. Solar energy 133. 18 Allergies and asthma 185. Wind energy 134. Storage and mobile consumption 135 19 Water pollution 189. Conclusion 135 Oil pollution in the oceans 189. Oil in the Gulf 191. 12 Non-energy resources 137. Exxon Valdez: still a catastrophe? 192. The pessimists bet on resources running out . Pollution in coastal waters 194. and lost 137. Suffocation in coastal waters 195. Falling prices 137. Health effects from fertilizer 201. Cement 138. Pollution in rivers 202. Aluminum 138. Iron 140 20 Waste: running out of space?

7 206. Copper 143. Gold and silver 144 21 Conclusion to Part IV: the pollution Nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium 145 burden has diminished 210. Zinc 145. Contents xi Part V: Tomorrow's problems How much does CO2 affect the temperature? Clouds 270. 22 Our chemical fears 215 The ozone hole 273. Cancer: death 217 Are there other causes? 276. Cancer: incidence 222 Are the scenarios realistic? 278. 1-in-8 and other lifetime risks 223 Are the scenarios realistic? The 40 new scenarios 280. The fear of pesticides 226 Consequences: agriculture 287. Establishing thresholds through risk Consequences: sea level rise 289. analysis 226 Consequences: human health 291. Pesticides and cancer 228 Consequences: extreme weather 292. Cancer in animal experiments 231 Consequences: present and future weather 297. Natural and synthetic pesticides 232 The cost of warming 300. Synthetic estrogens 236 The cost of cutting CO2 302. Synthetic estrogens: a fall in sperm quality 238 Then what should we do?

8 305. Organic farmers 240 The double dividend: improve the Synthetic estrogens: the cocktail effect 241 environment and make money? 308. Synthetic estrogens: breast cancer 242 Objections: cut CO2 and make money 312. Synthetic estrogens: should we worry? 244 Objections: the price of the future 313. Conclusion: should we use pesticides? 245 Objections: the fear of catastrophe 315. 23 Biodiversity 249 Summing up 317. How many species are there? 249 More than meets the eye 318. Is biodiversity important? 250 Conclusion: scares and sound policy 322. How many go extinct? 251. The claim of 40,000 species 252 Part VI: The real State of the World A model backup 252. 25 Predicament or progress? 327. What do we lose? 253. The Great Fable of the Litany 327. Models and reality 253. The real State of the World 328. The biologists' reaction 254. Yet we worry ever more 330. Check the data 254. Setting priorities and risks 333. The biologists' response 256. Weighing risks 336.

9 Conclusion: what are the consequences of The costs of the Litany 338. seriously overstating the extinctions? 257. Genetically modified foods the 24 Global warming 258 encapsulation of the Litany 342. The basic greenhouse effect 259 Caution when invoking the principle 348. The long-term development of the climate 260 Continued progress 350. The climate, 1856-2100 263. How much does CO2 affect the temperature? 265 Notes 353. How much does CO2 affect the temperature? Bibliography 435. Particles 266 Index 506. How much does CO2 affect the temperature? Water vapor 269. List of figures 1. World exports of goods and 14. Percentage of urban population in services, 1950 2000. page 8 developing and deveoped countries 2. Grain yields for the world, the and the world, 1950 2030. 49. developing world and the USSR 15. Life expectancy at birth in Britain, area, 1961 2000. 9 1200 1998. 51. 3. Fertilizer use, kg per person for the 16. Life expectancy for industrialized world (1950 99) and for the countries, developing countries, sub- developing world (1962 99).

10 11 Saharan Africa, and the entire world 4. Two attempts at showing the 1950 2050. 52. development of access to clean 17. Percentage of humanity with their water and sanitation. 20 maximum life expectancy in 2000. 53. 5. Percentage of people in the Third 18. Infant mortality in Sweden, World with access to drinking water 1750 1998. 54. and sanitation, 1970 2000. 22 19. Infant mortality: world, industrial, 6. Number and rate of tuberculosis developing and sub-Saharan African cases in the US, 1945 99. 23 nations. 55. 7. People undernourished in numbers 20. The prevalence of infectious and and percentage, 1949 2030. 24 noninfectious diseases in the US. 8. Infectious disease death rates, 1900 98. 56. 1970 2020. 26 21. The relationship between life 9. The connection for 117 nations expectancy and percentage of years between GDP per capita and the spent with disability. 58. 2001 Environmental Sustainability 22. Average height of adult men from Index. 33 1775 to 1975.