THE STATE OF FOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION IN THE …

1 food SECURITY AND NUTRITION IN THE WORLDTHE STATE OF SAFEGUARDING AGAINST ECONOMIC SLOWDOWNS AND DOWNTURNSDEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO. Young woman selling fruit at a street PHOTOGRAPH Shutterstock/Valeriya AnufriyevaThis flagship publication is part of THE STATE OF THE WORLD series of the food and Agriculture Organization of the United citation:FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO. 2019. The STATE of food SECURITY and NUTRITION in the World 2019. Safeguarding against economic slowdowns and downturns. Rome, : CC BY-NC-SA designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), the United Nations Children s Fund (UNICEF), the World food Programme (WFP) or the World Health Organization (WHO) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

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5 The risk of claims resulting from infringement of any third-party-owned component in the work rests solely with the , rights and licensing. FAO information products are available on the FAO website ( ) and can be purchased through Requests for commercial use should be submitted via: Queries regarding rights and licensing should be submitted to: 2663-8061 food and Agriculture Organization of the United NationsRome, 20192019 SAFEGUARDING AGAINST ECONOMIC SLOWDOWNS AND DOWNTURNSFOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION IN THE WORLD THE STATE OF | ii |CONTENTSFOREWORD viiMETHODOLOGY xACKNOWLEDGEMENTS xi ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS xiiiKEY MESSAGES xivEXECUTIVE SUMMARY xviPART 1 food SECURITY AND NUTRITION AROUND THE WORLD IN 2019 Recent trends in hunger and food insecurity Progress towards global NUTRITION targets Towards an integrated understanding of food SECURITY and NUTRITION for health and well-being Conclusions 46 PART 2 SUSTAINED ESCAPES FROM food INSECURITY AND MALNUTRITION IN THE FACE OF ECONOMIC SLOWDOWNS AND DOWNTURNS Economic slowdowns and downturns and their impact on food SECURITY and NUTRITION Commodity dependence and

6 Its relevance for food SECURITY and NUTRITION Nexus between economic growth, poverty, and food SECURITY and NUTRITION : the role of inequality Policies for achieving sustainable escapes from food insecurity and malnutrition in the context of economic slowdowns and downturns Conclusions 118 ANNEXES 121 ANNEX 1 AStatistical tables to Part 1 122 ANNEX 1 BMethodological notes to statistical tables 148 ANNEX 2 Methodologies Part 1 159 ANNEX 3 PoU change point definitions, methodology and country lists 165 ANNEX 4 Economic growth and change in PoU between 2011 and 2017 169 ANNEX 5 The main drivers of crisis-level acute food insecurity in 2018 176 ANNEX 6 Commodity dependence definitions and country lists 178 ANNEX 7 Glossary 185 NOTES 191| iii |TABLES.

7 FIGURES AND BOXES TABLES 1 Prevalence of undernourishment (PoU) in the world, 2005 2018 82 Number of undernourished people in the world, 2005 2018 93 Prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity, and severe food insecurity only, measured with the food Insecurity Experience Scale, 2014 2018 154 Number of people experiencing moderate or severe food insecurity, and severe food insecurity only, measured with the food Insecurity Experience Scale, 2014 2018 185 Association between food insecurity and various forms of malnutrition: cross-country analysis based on national data 446 Association between food insecurity and overweight or obesity in different age groups: micro-level data analysis from selected countries 457 Association between household food insecurity, child stunting and wasting, and anaemia in women of reproductive age.

8 Micro-level data analysis from selected countries 468 Economic shocks were significant secondary and tertiary drivers of food crises in 2018 609 High levels of commodity-export and -import dependence negatively affect food SECURITY 6710 Government spending on social and health sectors and UHC coverage in high commodity-dependent countries 7611 Coping strategies, their availability in times of economic slowdowns and downturns and possible negative effects 7812 Multisectoral policies for reducing poverty, and the constraints that must be overcome to improve food SECURITY and NUTRITION Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): Prevalence of undernourishment, moderate or severe food insecurity, selected forms of malnutrition, exclusive breastfeeding and low birthweight Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): Number of people who are affected by undernourishment, moderate or severe food insecurity and selected forms of malnutrition; number of infants exclusively breastfed and number of babies born with low birthweight 135A 2.

9 1 Definition of variables and sources Definition of variables and sources Results Malnutrition indicators by age/sex class (dependent variables) Independent variables Countries with an increase in PoU change point corresponding to economic slowdowns or downturns, years 2011 2017 Descriptive statistics of PoU and economic growth between 2011 and 2017 Regression of the change in PoU and economic growth between 2011 and 2017 Regression of the change in PoU between 2011 and 2017 and the three drivers of PoU increase Estimated coefficients of the regressions between the change in PoU (between 2011 and 2017) and the three drivers of PoU drivers regressed separately for each income group Estimated coefficients of the regressions between the change in PoU (between 2011 and 2017) and the three drivers of PoU drivers regressed together for each income group Countries and territories with food crises in correspondence with economic shocks, 2018 Definition of country commodity-export and commodity-import dependence Countries and territories by typology of primary commodity dependence (1995 2017)

10 Countries with economic slowdowns or downturns in correspondence to an increase in PoU change point and/or affected by food crises 180 FIGURES 1 The number of undernourished people in the world has been on the rise since 2015, and is back to levels seen in 2010 2011 62 Undernourishment is rising rapidly in Western Africa 10 TABLES, FIGURES AND BOXES| iv |3 Undernourishment increases sharply in countries affected by conflict in sub-Saharan Africa 104 Droughts are one of the factors behind the recent increase in undernourishment in sub-Saharan Africa 115 Western Asia is the only subregion in Asia where undernourishment is on the rise 126 Undernourishment is on the rise in Western Asian countries affected by popular uprisings in the recent past 127 Increasing undernourishment in South American countries is putting upward pressure on the Latin America and the Caribbean regional average 138 The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela shows a significant increase in the prevalence of undernourishment in recent years 139 Even though Asia still