The Uses of Inductive and Deductive Reasoning in ...

1 The Uses of Inductive and Deductive Reasoning in Investigations and Criminal Profiling By: Daniel J. Benny, , CPP, PCI, CCO, CLET Private Investigator & Security Consultant Inductive Reasoning is observing a set of characteristics based on a premise of broad generalizations and statistical analysis which leads to the development of a hypothesis. Deductive Reasoning is observing a set of characteristics that may be reasoned from a convergence of physical and a behavioral actions or patterns within an event or a series of events such as a crime or serious of crimes (Turvey, 2001).

2 The theory of Inductive and Deductive Reasoning has been a valuable tool in the criminal justice profession for over one hundred and twenty years. The theory has been utilized in the investigation of traditional criminal offenses such a robbery, theft, fraud and burglary. It has also been extensively used in the investigation of criminal profiling of serial killers, sexual predators, drug dealers, organized crime and as seen since September 11, 2001, suspected members of international and national terrorist organizations (Turvey, 2001). The most recognized and famous use of the concept of Inductive and Deductive Reasoning is in the works of Sir Arthur Conan Doyle in the Sherlock Holmes cannon of novels and short stories which first appeared in 1892.

3 Sherlock Holmes utilized this theory to not only solve crime but to build a profile of an individual based on observations of the facts and then building an hypotheses around the facts. When Holmes first met Dr. John Watson he used this theory to make a determination that Watson had an injury which was recently received from being in combat in Afghanistan. Holmes deducted by the way Watson carried his shoulder that he had recent wound. Because of the way Watson carried himself he had the air of a military man and his face was tanned. Holmes correctly deduced that Watson was an Army Surgeon recently back from battle in Afghanistan, a location in which the British Army was currently engaged in battle in which an individual could have obtained such a tanned complexion (Doyle, 1882).

4 The Holmes stories so effectively dramatized the theory of Inductive and Deductive Reasoning that they are used today at the Metropolitan Police Department, Scotland Yard, at their detective school located at the Peel Academy outside of London. They are used to teach the concept of Inductive and Deductive Reasoning in the criminal justice profession. The first known use of the theory of Inductive and Deductive Reasoning in criminal justice was during the same time period of the Sherlock Holmes stories. In 1888 a series of gruesome murders occurred in the east end of London known as White Chapel.

5 They became known as the White Chapel murders perpetrated by the Victorian criminal known as Jack the Ripper. The crime, which to this day remain unsolved, were so revolting to society that the Metropolitan Police and the City of London Police tried franticly to solve the case and to identify Jack the Ripper. Regional Police Surgeon Doctor George B. Phillips of the Metropolitan Police first utilized this theory in the examination of the physical evidence found at the crimes. This evidence included the nature of the wounds, the location of the crime and commonalities among the victims of Jack the Ripper.

6 The theory was used in an attempt to identify the suspect known as Jack the Ripper and to anticipate when and where he might attack his next victim. Unfortunately the individual known as Jack the Ripper was never identified and after the last documented White Chapel murder he was never heard from again. The theory was utilized to identify numerous suspects but the results have never been conclusive (Turvey, 2001). During World War II the Office of Strategic Service (OSS), forerunner of the Central Intelligence Agency, utilized the theory of Inductive and Deductive Reasoning in the form of profiling.

7 They attempted to profile Adolph Hitler in an effort to determine the impact of the war on his decision making. It was used to anticipate how he would direct the action of his military (Turvey, 2001). In 1956 these theories were utilize by Doctor James A. Brussel in New York City in an effort to identify and apprehend an individual known as the Mad Bomber . This individual terrorized the residences of New York City throughout the 1940s and 1950s by bombing building throughout New York City (Turvey, 2001). The use of this theory by Doctor Brussel was successful in assisting the New York City Police Department in identifying George Metsky as the bomber which lead to his arrest and successful prosecution.

8 This case provided an opportunity to promote the theory within the criminal justice community (Turvey, 2001). Based on the success of the use of the theory in criminal justice cases, FBI Special Agent Howard Tenten developed a behavioral science program in 1970 at the FBI National Academy located in Quantico, Virginia. The uses of the theory by the FBI behavioral science unit lead to a series of successful investigations (Turvey, 2001). Perhaps one of the most famous members of the FBI behavioral sciences unit was John Douglas. He began his tour with the unit in 1978.

9 John Douglas came to national attention in the 1970s when he used the theory in the Atlanta, George killings of numerous young black males. In that case he was able to accurately profile the killer of the young men. His profile of the killer being a black male with an interest in police matters was met with skepticism from the predominately black Atlanta Police Department, chief and mayor, but the profile provided by John Douglas in this case matched the suspect and lead to his arrest (Douglas, 1995). Douglas not only used this theory in the arrest of the suspect but also utilized it to aid the District Attorney in the conviction of the defendant by providing an insight on how he would react on the witness stand and what question might lead to an admission by the defendant.

10 With the assistance of John Douglas the defendant made an admission of guilt on the witness stand which along with the physical evidence, lead to his conviction (Douglas, 1995). The use of the theory of Inductive and Deductive Reasoning has become widespread within the criminal justice community. It continues to be utilized for the investigation of traditional criminal activity such as serial killers, organized crime and the drug cartel. The new use of the theory in criminal justice is in the area of espionage investigation and counterintelligence, as well the investigation of terrorism and with the counter terrorism efforts underway by federal, state and local law enforcement and intelligence agencies.