The worldwide battery market 2012-2025 - …

1 Christophe PILLOT +33(0)1 4778 4600 The worldwide battery market 2012 -2025 Director, AVICENNE ENERGY Christophe PILLOT BATTERIES 2013 October 14 -16, 2013 Nice, FRANCE Presentation Outline The rechargeable battery market in 2012 /2013 The Li-ion battery value chain Li-ion battery material market Forecasts & conclusions Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 The worldwide battery market 2012 -2025 BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013 Nice, FRANCE BATTERIES 2013 SPONSORS 2 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 The worldwide battery market 2012 -2025 BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013 Nice, FRANCE BATTERIES 2013: 80 SPEAKERS 14th October Keynotes AVICENNE ENERGY REAL LI TORU AMAZUTSUMI GTAI US DOE ATL BASF TIAX Materials UMICORE TODA KOGYO QING DAO TINCI SILATRONIX DREAMWEAVER JSR MICRO ZEON FMC ESS ROLAND BERGER EDF 24M SAFT IECR EASY LI GTAI ENBW VERTRIEB 3 15th October R&D KC MOLLER - FRAUNHOFER ICT I.

2 BELHAROUAK - ARGONNE SHMUEL DE-LEON BRUNO SCROSATI Elettrochimica ed Energia C. MASQUELIER - LRCS D. AURBACH BAR ILAN UNIV R. YAZAMI NANYANG UNIV R&D BIO-LOGIC CEA LITEN INP ZBT Safety ATL CELGARD EUROBAT ETTEPLAN Micro Hyb R. BRODD POWERGENIX ALTAIRNANO A123 Safety LITHIUM BALANCE CADEX INTERTEK battery MAN FRAUNHOFER ISE Micro Hyb MAGNA ALABC MAXWELL Safety SERMA INERIS RECHARGE 16th October PORTABLE CONTOUR TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INTEL ST ERICSSON AUTO NATUREO PSA RENAULT SGC AUTO FORD BOSCH US DOE ICC NEXERGY MFG. BUHLER PEC SOVEMA MEGTEC KROENERT NETZSCH ENTEGRIS R&D AKASOL IFP CNRS ZSW Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 The worldwide battery market 2012 -2025 BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013 Nice, FRANCE AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS HEV powered by Lithium ion battery forecasts from 2008 to 2012 EV sold, in million units, worldwide , 2010 - 2020 012345201020152020 Number of EV sold worldwide ( Million) Source.

3 International battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011 4 00,20,40,60,811,21,41,620082009201020112 012 Million HEV powered by LIB IIT 2007 IIT 2008 IIT 2009 IIT 2010 AVICENNE 2007 REALITY AAB ( 2012 ) AVICENNE 2007- 2012 ROLAND BERGER (2011) IIT (MARCH 2010) ROLAND BERGER ( 2012 ) DEUTSCHE BANK ( 2012 ) IIT (MARCH 2011) Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 The worldwide battery market 2012 -2025 BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013 Nice, FRANCE 5 THE battery market IS REALLY DYNAMIC Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013 050010001500200020002012 Million Units / year Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million) Li-ionNiMH202 M Portable PCs >115 M Tablets 05010015020025030035020002012 Million Units/Year Portable PC sold per Year (Million) Li-ionNiMH010000200003000040000500006000 0700008000020002012 Tons of cathode / Year Tons of Li-ion Cathode per year 00,511,522,5320002012$/Wh Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh) Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 The worldwide battery market 2012 -2025 BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013 Nice, FRANCE THE worldwide battery market 1990- 2012 05 00010 00015 00020 00025 00030 00035 00040 00045 0001990200020102012 MWh Others (Flow battery , NAS.)

4 Li-ionNiMHNiCD6 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2013 Lithium Ion battery : Highest growth & major part of industry investments Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 The worldwide battery market 2012 -2025 BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013 Nice, FRANCE 050 000100 000150 000200 000250 000300 000350 000400 0001990200020102012 MWh Others (Flow battery , NAS, ..) Li-ionNiMHNiCDLead Acid050 000100 000150 000200 000250 000300 000350 000400 0001990200020102012 MWh THE worldwide battery market 1990- 2012 Lithium Ion battery : Highest growth & major part of the investments Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share) 7 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2013 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 The worldwide battery market 2012 -2025 BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013 Nice, FRANCE THE worldwide battery market 1990- 2012 50 BILLION US$ in 20121 5% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (1990- 2012 ) 8 1- Pack level Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013 010203040506019902000200520102012 Billion US $ Others (Flow battery , NAS.)

5 Li-ionNiMHNiCDLead Acid010203040506019902000200520102012 Billion US$ OTHERSAUTOMOTIVEINDUSTRIALE-BIKESPOWER TOOLSPORTABLESLIC hristophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 The worldwide battery market 2012 -2025 BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013 Nice, FRANCE THE worldwide battery market IN 2012 : US $ 50 BILLION Portable Automotive SLI 0500010000150002000025000300003500040000 4500050000 SLIA utomotivePortableOther ApplicationsMarineMedical devicesWheelchairMedical CartOther StationarySeismicESSO ther Stand-byUPST elecomOther MotiveForkliftPower ToolsE-Bikes9 battery market in 2012 (M$) 1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors Power electronics (DC DC converters, ) not included Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2013 02 0004 0006 0008 00010 00012 00014 00016 00018 000 Lead AcidLIBO ther ApplicationsMarineMedical devicesWheelchairMedical CartOther StationarySeismicESSO ther Stand-byUPST elecomOther MotiveForkliftPower ToolsE-BikesChristophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 The worldwide battery market 2012 -2025 BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013 Nice, FRANCE LI-ION IN 2012 MAIN APPLICATIONS.

6 CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK 10 - 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 0002000200220042006200820102012M Wh Li-ion battery sales, MWh, worldwide , 2000- 2012 Cellular PhonesPortable PCsOthers - 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 0002000200220042006200820102012M Wh Li-ion battery sales, MWh, worldwide , 2000- 2012 TabletsPower ToolsCamcordersDigital CameraVideo GamesMP3 ToysAutoHousehold devicesE-bikesOthers4 450 M cells 32 000 MWh 10 500 M$ CAGR 2002/ 2012 +25 % per year in Volume +14% per year in value Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 The worldwide battery market 2012 -2025 BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013 Nice, FRANCE LI-ION IN 2012 MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK 4 450 M cells 32 000 MWh 10 700 M$ (cell level) CAGR 2002/ 2012 +25 % per year in Volume +14% per year in value 11 - 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 0002000200220042006200820102012M $ Li-ion battery sales, M$, worldwide , 2000- 2012 Cellular PhonesPortable PCsOthers0100020003000400050006000200020 0220042006200820102012M $ Li-ion battery sales, M$, worldwide , 2000- 2012 AutomotivesTabletsPower toolsCamcordersDigital cameraMP3 GamesE-BikesOthersChristophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 The worldwide battery market 2012 -2025 BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013 Nice, FRANCE 12 battery PRICE IS DECREASING DRASTICALLY In 10 Years 80% price decreasing despite a fluctuating Co price Average LIB cell price ($/Wh) Source.

7 UMICORE, march 2011 18650 oversupply ratio is increasing 0%10%20%30%40% - 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000200720082009201020112012M cells /Year SupplyDemandOversupply ratio0,000,200,400,600,801,0020052006200 720082009201020112012 CylindricalPrismaticLaminate050100150200 2503001Q 092Q 093Q094Q 091Q 102Q 103Q104Q 101Q 112Q 113Q114Q 11M cells /month BAKATLL ishenE-OneLGSDIMAXELLSONYPANASONICSANYOP roduction capacity 2009/2011: from 150 to 250 M cells/month Note- Q4 2012 : Cylindrical: 0,18 $/Wh ; Laminates: 0,34 $/Wh Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 The worldwide battery market 2012 -2025 BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013 Nice, FRANCE LI-ION VALUE CHAIN 13 CATHODE SUPPLIERS 75 OOO T in 2012 Revenues: 1,85 B$ CAGR 02/12: +16% ANODE SUPPLIERS 38 000 T in 2012 Revenues: 0,6 B$ CAGR 02/12: 14% ELECTROLYTE SUPPLIERS 29 000 T in 2012 Revenues: 0,46 B$ CAGR 02/12: 20% SEPARATOR SUPPLIERS 490 M m in 2012 Revenues: 0,9 B$ CAGR 02/12: 18% CELL MANUFACTURERS Revenues: > 11 B$ Gross margin: <10% ANCILLARY Revenues: 0,5 B$ PACK MANUFACTURERS Revenues: > 14 B$ Gross margin: <10% BINDER SUPPLIERS 5 600 Tons in 2012 Revenues: 0,16 B$ CAGR 02/12: 16% For each component: market in volume & value?

8 Material used by application? Main suppliers / new comers? Material cost? Major trends? Technology roadmap Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 The worldwide battery market 2012 -2025 BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013 Nice, FRANCE NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIALS NEEDS BY CHEMISTRY - 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 80 0002000200220042006200820102012 Tons LFPLMONCANMCLCOC athode active materials for LIB in Tons, 2000- 2012 14 (..) LEADERS: Nichia 23% Umicore 21% Others 8% Internal 4% B&M 17% Easpring 10% Reshine 10% Other China 7% LCO 29 KT ( 2012 ) NMC1 27 KT ( 2012 ) Nichia 23% Umicore 27% Others 19% Internal 5% L&F 11% Other China 15% LMO 13 KT ( 2012 ) LFP 5 KT ( 2012 ) Nichia 8% Other Japan 16% Internal 6% Nikki 18% Qyanyun 15% Other China 37% Tatung 12% Aleees 18% Other Japan 5% Internal 6% Clariant 5% A123 10% Formosa 8% Valence 6% Others 30% 1- Including NCA Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 The worldwide battery market 2012 -2025 BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013 Nice, FRANCE CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL FORECASTS 2000-2025 0500001000001500002000002500003000003500 004000002000200520102012201520202025 Tons LFPLMONCANMCLCOC athode active materials 2000-2025 - Tons Cathode active materials in 2012 : 75 000 Tons 15 ASSUMPTIONS.

9 Portable devices: 2010-2025: +11% per year in volume HEV 4,8 M HEV/year in 2020 - 35% LIB 6,8 M HEV in 2025 90% LIB P-HEV 0,4 M P-HEV/year in 2020, 0,7 M in 2025 100% LIB EV 1M EV/year in 2020, 1,5M/year in 2025 100% LIB LCO 39% NMC 30% NCA 5% LMO 18% LFP 8% Cathode active materials in 2025: > 330 000 Tons LCO 24% NMC 37% NCA 7% LMO 11% LFP 21% Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 The worldwide battery market 2012 -2025 BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013 Nice, FRANCE 16 ANODE ACTIVE MATERIALS 38 000 TONS IN 2012 LIB Anode Materials Source: Hitachi Chemical Source: Sanyo, March 2011 LIB Anode market , (Tons) LIB Anode Materials Source: A. Jossen, IRES 2007 0,00,20,40,60,81,01,20500100015002000250 001000020000300004000050000 Tons LTOSi or Sn TypeAmorphous CarbonMeso-PhaseArtificial GraphiteNatural GraphiteChristophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 The worldwide battery market 2012 -2025 BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013 Nice, FRANCE ANODE FOR LIB IN 2012 0%50%100%SANYOSONYPANASONICSDILGCBYDL ishenMaxellATLBAKA123 OthersARTIFICIALMCMBNATURALA morphousMETAL17 Natural graphite become a commodity Note: MCMB: Mesocarbon Microbeads Source: Hitachi Chemical Natural Graphite 61% Artificial Graphite 28% MCMB 6% Amorphous 3% Si or Sn Type 1% LTO 1% Carbon for LIB anodes by type ( 2012 ) (.)

10 NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: LEADERS: Hard Carbon Soft Carbon Graphite Capacity (/g) 400 mAh/g 250 mAh/g 325-375 mAh/g Capacity (/cc) ++ 0 + Power ++ + 0 Stability ++ + 0 Cyclability ++ + 0 Precursors Petroleum Pitch, Resin, cellulose, wood, Petroleum coke Natural or petroleum coke COST 2012 ->2020 30 -> 25 $/kg 25->20 $/kg 15 -> 10 $/kg SUPPLIERS KUREHA HITACHI HITACHI BTR & many others Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 The worldwide battery market 2012 -2025 BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013 Nice, FRANCE LIB SEPARATOR market 2012 LIB separator market , M$, CAGR 2000/ 2012 : +18% LIB Separator supplier, market share in 2012 18 Others: TDK/Nitto Denko, Foshan Jinhui Hi-Tech, Shenzhen Senior Technology Material, Xinxiang Green next Energy, Dupont,.. 0100200300400500600700800900100020002001 2002200320042005200620072008200920102011 2012M$ Evonik, TEIJIN, HIFUTURE, UBE-MAXELL (.)