Transcription of ThewaveofagingBabyBoomerswillreshapethe
1 AcknowledgementsFCGwouldliketothankthefo llowingindividualsfortheircontributionst othisreport: RichardAfable, , ,Presidentand Chief ExecutiveOfficer,Hoag MemorialHospitalPresbyterian Beth Averbeck,MD, AssociateMedicalDirectorfor Care Improvement,HealthPartners;and KennethHolmen, , Vice Presidentfor MedicalAffairs,RegionsHospital,and Vice Presidentfor PhysicianStrategies,HealthPartners Ron Dziedzicki, , SeniorVice Presidentand GeneralManagerof Operations,UniversityHospitals Art Nichols,President/ChiefExecutiveOfficer; John Schlegelmilch, , MedicalDirector;and Don Caruso, , AssociateMedicalDirector,CheshireMedical Center/ Dartmouth-HitchcockKeeneFCG also gratefullyacknowledgesthe significantinsightand supportreceivedfrom MollyCoye, , ,Chief ExecutiveOfficer,andStevenDeMello,Direct orof Researchand Forecastingat HealthTech;and AnjaliJoseph,PhD.,Directorof Research,and LauraEllington,Directorof ProjectDevelopmentat the Centerfor e wave of agin g Baby Boomerswill res hape thehealt h care sy stem forever.
2 Therewill be more peop leenjoying their lat er years,but they ll be managingmor e chroni c conditions and therefore utilizingmor e health care servi ces. By 20 30: The over 65 populationwill nearly double as a resultof the aging Boomers. More than six of every10 Boomerswill be managing mo re than onechro nic condi tion. More than one out of everythree Boomers over 21 mi llio n will beconsi der ed obese. On e of everyfour Boomers 14 million will be livin g with diabetes. Nearl y one out of every two Boomers more than 26 millio n will beli ving with art hritis. Eigh t times more knee replacements will be per form ed than these future health care challenges will requ ire mo re res ources , newappr oachesto care deliveryand a great er focus on welln ess and pr grew up on the B eatl es and Elvis , dro ve the fi rst Ford Must ang s and made political and social protests the norm.
3 Bo rn between 1946 and 1 964, the 78 milli on U .S. B ab y Boomers drivethe labor and housing markets, influen ce cultural trends and intr odu ce li fest yle ch anges that h ave las ti ng impact. Every day, alm os t 11,000 Boomer s turn 50 that s one every eight seco f irs t of t hem will turn 64 i n 201 0, w hi le t he las t wi ll n ot reachthis mi lest one f or 21 year s. Th anks t o man y med ical ad vances ove rtheir li feti me fr om po lio and m easles vaccines to radi cal h eartsu rger ies m ore Boomer s are li ving this dynamic po pulation ages , h ow w ill Baby Bo om ers dem ogr aphi c m akeup, health status and ex pectat io ns im pact Am erica s health care sys tem?By co mbining new resear ch and analysis wit h a study of em erging healt h car e approaches and t echn ologies , this repo rt il lu str ates h ow the health care field is antici pating t he B oomer r evo luti on, and h ow t he Boo mers wil l leave their mark on American hea lth care for g en erations to co B oomers Wi ll Ch ange Hea lt h CareWWhheenn II mm 66444As Boomers Grow in Numbers, HealthCare Needs Will In creaseThe Bab y Boomers mak e up a s igni fi -cant por tion of the po pul atio n,and, as the Bo omers age, the p ercent -ag e of Americans over 65 tho se that ut ilize the b ul k of health care res ou rces wi ll sh ift significantly.
4 When th e l ast of the Boomers reach r eti rem entage, al most 20 percent of the popu lati on willbe 65 or older compared to less than 13 p ercenttod 2030, there will be mo re than 70 mil li on A mericans over age dram atic increase in births between 19 46and 1964, dubbed the baby bo om , dro ve manypu bl ic s ervi ces par ticu lar ly scho ols to add cap acity that w asn t n eeded in the years imm edi -atel y foll owin g. How ever , for health care , the sit uation is d iffer ent. Whil e this po pulation w illcr eate a no tab le ris e in d eman d for serv ices, th e d em and wil l con tinu e rath er th an drop off becau se eve ryon e inclu din g B oo mer s an d th ememb ers of G ener ation s X and Y that follo w isli vin g lo ng er an d with mor e chr on ic disease.
5 At th e tu rn o f the 20 th cen tu ry, ju st beforeBo om er s p ar ents w ere b orn, l ife ex pectan cywas 4 7 y ears of ag e. In 2002 (th e last year forwh ich data ar e available) , it w as 7 7 an addi -tio nal 30 year s o f of all th e p eopl e w hohave ever li ved t o ag e 6 5 are alive WWhheenn II mm 11::Th e co nver gen ce of four key factors d rives how Boomers wi ll imp act U . ca re: 1. Ther e ar e s ign ificantly more of them and, as they age, th ey will requ ire m or e health care servi ces than any ot her gener ati on of Amer ican The pr evalence of ch roni c d iseases is increasing amo ng Bo omers. 3. They have dif ferent needs and expect ations th an past gener at io ns. 4. Mo re m edical service s and technolog ies are available to th em th an ever befor e. Aging of the Boomers2000201020202030 Age 36-54 Age 46-64 Age 56-74 Age 66-8478 Million75 Milli on70 Million58 Mill ion5 People are l iving longer b ecause of bo th lifestylecha nges and advances in heal th care.
6 For exam-ple, f ewer people sm ok e to day than in the past . In the 1950 s more than ha lf o f men an d a third of w ome n sm oke d cigarettes. By 2 005 , th os enumbers were down to 23 percent of men and 19per cent of women .6Th ank s to m ajor advances inmedi cin e, fewer peopl e die at an early age fromhea rt dis ease and cancer. Fo r example, th e five-yea r cancer survival rate imp ro ved fro m 50 per cent in the m id 70 s ( 19 75 -1 97 7) to 66 percentat the turn of th e 21 st cen tury (1 996 -2002 ).7 Hea lt h Ca re Implication: Wi th increasedlong evit y, Boome rs will reach reti rement age,have mo re years to enjoy it and, in turn, moreyea rs in need of healt h care servi ces. The Prevalence of Chronic Conditionsis Growing among BoomersSix ty-t wo percent of 5 0- to- 64 year old s rep orted th ey had atleas t one of six chro nic co nd iti on s (hy per tensio n, high cho lest erol ,ar thrit is, d iabetes, h eart diseasean d cancer).
7 8Of A mer icans 65 a nd o lder , 80 p ercen t have at leas t on e chr on ic disease that requires o ngoin g care andman B oomers age, the n umber with m ultiplechr on ic conditions is ex pected to grow fro m al most 8. 6 mil lion today ( about one of every 10 When the last of t heBoo mers reach retirem entage, alm ost 20 percent o fth e U .S . po pu lati on w il l b e65 or o lder compared toless than 13 percent today.!Boomer s) to almost 3 7 million in 2030. By 203 0, m or e than six o f every 1 0 Bo omer s w ill be man ag ing mor e than on e chr onic con dition .10 And B oomer s ar e not al on e. T he o verall incid enceof ch ronic co nd itio ns lik e d iab etes and hyp er ten -sio n is g ro win g, an d will contin ue t o in crease asfu tu re g ener ati on s r each 6 5.
8 Si nce th e biggest facto rs in fl uen cing med ical sp end in g ar e chr onicill ness and a pat ient s l evel of dis abil ity,11thegrow in g incid ence of mu ltip le ch ron ic con ditionswill p ut i ncreasing deman ds on ou r h ealth caresy stem . Dia betesTh e n umb er of Amer icans with d iabetes is ex -pected to r ise fr om 3 0 mil lion tod ay to 46 millionby 20 30, w hen o ne of every fou r B oome rs 14mil lio n will be living wit h thi s chr onic d Heal th C are Impli ca tio n: The se di abe tic Bo ome rswi ll re quire co nti nuo us med ica l ma na geme nt inboth in pa tie nt a nd ou tpati ent s etti ng rit isTh e n umb er of Amer icans with ar thr itis is ex pected to rise fro m 4 6 millio n to day to 6 7 mil lio n b y 2 03 0. A t that p oin t, n early on e ou t ofever y two Bo omer s or over 2 6 millio n will belivi ng with th e con dition.
9 13 Heal th C are Impli ca tio n: Whi le th e hea lt h ris ksof a rth riti s are no t as gre at a s o the r chr onic il lne sses, the de crea se d mo bili ty arth ri tis ca ntrig ger wi ll ca us e ma ny B oo mers to see k n ew alte rn ativ e thera pi es , p ai n co ntro l trea tm ent s,exercise re gi men s a nd joi nt re pla ceme nt s. Ob esi tyTh e i nc id en ce of ob esity , a m ajor risk fa ctor forman y d iseases, also is on the r ise an d w il l fu rth erch allen ge the h ealth care sys tem. Obese p atientsco st M ed icar e ab ou t 3 4 p ercen t mor e th an thos eof n ormal w eigh esity rat es amon g B oomerswill co ntin ue to g ro w o ver time. By 2030 , m oreth an o ne ou t of every three Boo mers over 216milli on willbeconsideredobese, and obesityintheoverall population will reachover93 CareImplication:Boomerswillrequirene w weight-managementtechniquesto helpth em managethe chronichealth conditionsass ociatedwith ob esity as wellas health careset ti ng s designed to meettheneeds of obesepatient : FCG projections based on National Center for Health Statistics, Trends in Health and Aging.
10 Accessed March 28, 2007; FCG projectionsbased on National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, National Diabetes Sur veillance System. Accessed March 26, 2007;FCG projections based on National Center for Health Statistics, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2002*ProjectedNumber of Boomers Living with Chronic Conditions40,000,00035,000,00030,000,000 25,000,00020,000,00015,000,00010,000,000 5,000,000020002030*Boomers living with multiplechronic conditionsBoomers livingwith diabetesBoomers livingwith arthritisBoomers livingwith obesity2010*2020*37 million Boomerswill be managing more tha n one chr onic ,morethanoneoutofeverythreeBoomers over21million willbeconsideredobese.!mobil ity ,000hip fracturesoccurredin 200 0, a figure that isexpected to double by the : The increasingincidenceof fallsmeansmore emergen cydepartment (ED) visi ts andhospita ngandtre ati ngfalls will become abi gger challeng e for heal th care provider large number of Boomerswithacuteandchronic care needs will clearly challengethenation s health care ,Boomersbetweenthe agesof 54 and59 report havingmorechronic healthconditions, pain,problems withalcohol and psy chiatric problemsthantheirparents reportedhavingwhentheywere the require more care,di fferenttypesof care andbettercoord inationof One Size Fi ts All.