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ThewaveofagingBabyBoomerswillreshapethe

AcknowledgementsFCGwouldliketothankthefo llowingindividualsfortheircontributionst othisreport: RichardAfable, , ,Presidentand Chief ExecutiveOfficer,Hoag MemorialHospitalPresbyterian Beth Averbeck,MD, AssociateMedicalDirectorfor Care Improvement,HealthPartners;and KennethHolmen, , Vice Presidentfor MedicalAffairs,RegionsHospital,and Vice Presidentfor PhysicianStrategies,HealthPartners Ron Dziedzicki, , SeniorVice Presidentand GeneralManagerof Operations,UniversityHospitals Art Nichols,President/ChiefExecutiveOfficer; John Schlegelmilch, , MedicalDirector;and Don Caruso, , AssociateMedicalDirector,CheshireMedical Center/ Dartmouth-HitchcockKeeneFCG also gratefullyacknowledgesthe significantinsightand supportreceivedfrom MollyCoye, , ,Chief ExecutiveOfficer,andStevenDeMello,Direct orof Researchand Forecastingat HealthTech;and AnjaliJoseph,PhD.,Directorof Research,and LauraEllington,Directorof ProjectDevelopmentat the Centerfor e wave of agin g Baby Boomerswill res hape thehealt h care sy stem forever.

As this dynamic population ages, how will Baby Boomers’ demographic makeup, health status and expectations impact America’s health care system? By combining new research and analysis with a study of emerging health care approaches and technologies, this report illustrates how the health care field is

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Transcription of ThewaveofagingBabyBoomerswillreshapethe

1 AcknowledgementsFCGwouldliketothankthefo llowingindividualsfortheircontributionst othisreport: RichardAfable, , ,Presidentand Chief ExecutiveOfficer,Hoag MemorialHospitalPresbyterian Beth Averbeck,MD, AssociateMedicalDirectorfor Care Improvement,HealthPartners;and KennethHolmen, , Vice Presidentfor MedicalAffairs,RegionsHospital,and Vice Presidentfor PhysicianStrategies,HealthPartners Ron Dziedzicki, , SeniorVice Presidentand GeneralManagerof Operations,UniversityHospitals Art Nichols,President/ChiefExecutiveOfficer; John Schlegelmilch, , MedicalDirector;and Don Caruso, , AssociateMedicalDirector,CheshireMedical Center/ Dartmouth-HitchcockKeeneFCG also gratefullyacknowledgesthe significantinsightand supportreceivedfrom MollyCoye, , ,Chief ExecutiveOfficer,andStevenDeMello,Direct orof Researchand Forecastingat HealthTech;and AnjaliJoseph,PhD.,Directorof Research,and LauraEllington,Directorof ProjectDevelopmentat the Centerfor e wave of agin g Baby Boomerswill res hape thehealt h care sy stem forever.

2 Therewill be more peop leenjoying their lat er years,but they ll be managingmor e chroni c conditions and therefore utilizingmor e health care servi ces. By 20 30: The over 65 populationwill nearly double as a resultof the aging Boomers. More than six of every10 Boomerswill be managing mo re than onechro nic condi tion. More than one out of everythree Boomers over 21 mi llio n will beconsi der ed obese. On e of everyfour Boomers 14 million will be livin g with diabetes. Nearl y one out of every two Boomers more than 26 millio n will beli ving with art hritis. Eigh t times more knee replacements will be per form ed than these future health care challenges will requ ire mo re res ources , newappr oachesto care deliveryand a great er focus on welln ess and pr grew up on the B eatl es and Elvis , dro ve the fi rst Ford Must ang s and made political and social protests the norm.

3 Bo rn between 1946 and 1 964, the 78 milli on U .S. B ab y Boomers drivethe labor and housing markets, influen ce cultural trends and intr odu ce li fest yle ch anges that h ave las ti ng impact. Every day, alm os t 11,000 Boomer s turn 50 that s one every eight seco f irs t of t hem will turn 64 i n 201 0, w hi le t he las t wi ll n ot reachthis mi lest one f or 21 year s. Th anks t o man y med ical ad vances ove rtheir li feti me fr om po lio and m easles vaccines to radi cal h eartsu rger ies m ore Boomer s are li ving this dynamic po pulation ages , h ow w ill Baby Bo om ers dem ogr aphi c m akeup, health status and ex pectat io ns im pact Am erica s health care sys tem?By co mbining new resear ch and analysis wit h a study of em erging healt h car e approaches and t echn ologies , this repo rt il lu str ates h ow the health care field is antici pating t he B oomer r evo luti on, and h ow t he Boo mers wil l leave their mark on American hea lth care for g en erations to co B oomers Wi ll Ch ange Hea lt h CareWWhheenn II mm 66444As Boomers Grow in Numbers, HealthCare Needs Will In creaseThe Bab y Boomers mak e up a s igni fi -cant por tion of the po pul atio n,and, as the Bo omers age, the p ercent -ag e of Americans over 65 tho se that ut ilize the b ul k of health care res ou rces wi ll sh ift significantly.

4 When th e l ast of the Boomers reach r eti rem entage, al most 20 percent of the popu lati on willbe 65 or older compared to less than 13 p ercenttod 2030, there will be mo re than 70 mil li on A mericans over age dram atic increase in births between 19 46and 1964, dubbed the baby bo om , dro ve manypu bl ic s ervi ces par ticu lar ly scho ols to add cap acity that w asn t n eeded in the years imm edi -atel y foll owin g. How ever , for health care , the sit uation is d iffer ent. Whil e this po pulation w illcr eate a no tab le ris e in d eman d for serv ices, th e d em and wil l con tinu e rath er th an drop off becau se eve ryon e inclu din g B oo mer s an d th ememb ers of G ener ation s X and Y that follo w isli vin g lo ng er an d with mor e chr on ic disease.

5 At th e tu rn o f the 20 th cen tu ry, ju st beforeBo om er s p ar ents w ere b orn, l ife ex pectan cywas 4 7 y ears of ag e. In 2002 (th e last year forwh ich data ar e available) , it w as 7 7 an addi -tio nal 30 year s o f of all th e p eopl e w hohave ever li ved t o ag e 6 5 are alive WWhheenn II mm 11::Th e co nver gen ce of four key factors d rives how Boomers wi ll imp act U . ca re: 1. Ther e ar e s ign ificantly more of them and, as they age, th ey will requ ire m or e health care servi ces than any ot her gener ati on of Amer ican The pr evalence of ch roni c d iseases is increasing amo ng Bo omers. 3. They have dif ferent needs and expect ations th an past gener at io ns. 4. Mo re m edical service s and technolog ies are available to th em th an ever befor e. Aging of the Boomers2000201020202030 Age 36-54 Age 46-64 Age 56-74 Age 66-8478 Million75 Milli on70 Million58 Mill ion5 People are l iving longer b ecause of bo th lifestylecha nges and advances in heal th care.

6 For exam-ple, f ewer people sm ok e to day than in the past . In the 1950 s more than ha lf o f men an d a third of w ome n sm oke d cigarettes. By 2 005 , th os enumbers were down to 23 percent of men and 19per cent of women .6Th ank s to m ajor advances inmedi cin e, fewer peopl e die at an early age fromhea rt dis ease and cancer. Fo r example, th e five-yea r cancer survival rate imp ro ved fro m 50 per cent in the m id 70 s ( 19 75 -1 97 7) to 66 percentat the turn of th e 21 st cen tury (1 996 -2002 ).7 Hea lt h Ca re Implication: Wi th increasedlong evit y, Boome rs will reach reti rement age,have mo re years to enjoy it and, in turn, moreyea rs in need of healt h care servi ces. The Prevalence of Chronic Conditionsis Growing among BoomersSix ty-t wo percent of 5 0- to- 64 year old s rep orted th ey had atleas t one of six chro nic co nd iti on s (hy per tensio n, high cho lest erol ,ar thrit is, d iabetes, h eart diseasean d cancer).

7 8Of A mer icans 65 a nd o lder , 80 p ercen t have at leas t on e chr on ic disease that requires o ngoin g care andman B oomers age, the n umber with m ultiplechr on ic conditions is ex pected to grow fro m al most 8. 6 mil lion today ( about one of every 10 When the last of t heBoo mers reach retirem entage, alm ost 20 percent o fth e U .S . po pu lati on w il l b e65 or o lder compared toless than 13 percent today.!Boomer s) to almost 3 7 million in 2030. By 203 0, m or e than six o f every 1 0 Bo omer s w ill be man ag ing mor e than on e chr onic con dition .10 And B oomer s ar e not al on e. T he o verall incid enceof ch ronic co nd itio ns lik e d iab etes and hyp er ten -sio n is g ro win g, an d will contin ue t o in crease asfu tu re g ener ati on s r each 6 5.

8 Si nce th e biggest facto rs in fl uen cing med ical sp end in g ar e chr onicill ness and a pat ient s l evel of dis abil ity,11thegrow in g incid ence of mu ltip le ch ron ic con ditionswill p ut i ncreasing deman ds on ou r h ealth caresy stem . Dia betesTh e n umb er of Amer icans with d iabetes is ex -pected to r ise fr om 3 0 mil lion tod ay to 46 millionby 20 30, w hen o ne of every fou r B oome rs 14mil lio n will be living wit h thi s chr onic d Heal th C are Impli ca tio n: The se di abe tic Bo ome rswi ll re quire co nti nuo us med ica l ma na geme nt inboth in pa tie nt a nd ou tpati ent s etti ng rit isTh e n umb er of Amer icans with ar thr itis is ex pected to rise fro m 4 6 millio n to day to 6 7 mil lio n b y 2 03 0. A t that p oin t, n early on e ou t ofever y two Bo omer s or over 2 6 millio n will belivi ng with th e con dition.

9 13 Heal th C are Impli ca tio n: Whi le th e hea lt h ris ksof a rth riti s are no t as gre at a s o the r chr onic il lne sses, the de crea se d mo bili ty arth ri tis ca ntrig ger wi ll ca us e ma ny B oo mers to see k n ew alte rn ativ e thera pi es , p ai n co ntro l trea tm ent s,exercise re gi men s a nd joi nt re pla ceme nt s. Ob esi tyTh e i nc id en ce of ob esity , a m ajor risk fa ctor forman y d iseases, also is on the r ise an d w il l fu rth erch allen ge the h ealth care sys tem. Obese p atientsco st M ed icar e ab ou t 3 4 p ercen t mor e th an thos eof n ormal w eigh esity rat es amon g B oomerswill co ntin ue to g ro w o ver time. By 2030 , m oreth an o ne ou t of every three Boo mers over 216milli on willbeconsideredobese, and obesityintheoverall population will reachover93 CareImplication:Boomerswillrequirene w weight-managementtechniquesto helpth em managethe chronichealth conditionsass ociatedwith ob esity as wellas health careset ti ng s designed to meettheneeds of obesepatient : FCG projections based on National Center for Health Statistics, Trends in Health and Aging.

10 Accessed March 28, 2007; FCG projectionsbased on National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, National Diabetes Sur veillance System. Accessed March 26, 2007;FCG projections based on National Center for Health Statistics, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2002*ProjectedNumber of Boomers Living with Chronic Conditions40,000,00035,000,00030,000,000 25,000,00020,000,00015,000,00010,000,000 5,000,000020002030*Boomers living with multiplechronic conditionsBoomers livingwith diabetesBoomers livingwith arthritisBoomers livingwith obesity2010*2020*37 million Boomerswill be managing more tha n one chr onic ,morethanoneoutofeverythreeBoomers over21million willbeconsideredobese.!mobil ity ,000hip fracturesoccurredin 200 0, a figure that isexpected to double by the : The increasingincidenceof fallsmeansmore emergen cydepartment (ED) visi ts andhospita ngandtre ati ngfalls will become abi gger challeng e for heal th care provider large number of Boomerswithacuteandchronic care needs will clearly challengethenation s health care ,Boomersbetweenthe agesof 54 and59 report havingmorechronic healthconditions, pain,problems withalcohol and psy chiatric problemsthantheirparents reportedhavingwhentheywere the require more care,di fferenttypesof care andbettercoord inationof One Size Fi ts All.


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