THIRD NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (NDPIII) 2020/21 …

1 NATIONAL PLANNING AUTHORITYJ anuary 2020 THIRD NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT plan ( ndpiii ) 2020/21 2024/25 NATIONAL PLANNING AUTHORITY iNDPIII 2020/21 2024/25 NATIONAL PLANNING AUTHORITYJ anuary 2020 THIRD NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT plan ( ndpiii ) 2020/21 2024/25 VISION A Transformed Ugandan Society from a Peasant to a Modern and Prosperous Country within 30 years GOAL To Increase Average Household Incomes and Improve the Quality of Life of Ugandans THEME Sustainable Industrialization for inclusive growth, employment and sustainable wealth creation THIRD NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT plan ( ndpiii ) 2020/21 2024/25iiii TABLE OF CONTENTS ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS .. VI FOREWORD .. XIV EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .. XVI PART I: BACKGROUND AND DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT .. 1 CHAPTER 1: BACKGROUND .. 1 Introduction .. 1 Achievements, Challenges and Lessons learnt from NDPI and NDPII .. 2 How ndpiii is different from NDPI and NDPII.

2 11 Approach and formulation process of the ndpiii .. 13 Structure of the plan .. 13 CHAPTER 2: REGIONAL AND GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT .. 14 Introduction .. 14 Key DEVELOPMENT Opportunities .. 15 Threats .. 18 Regional and International DEVELOPMENT Obligations .. 21 CHAPTER 3: NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK .. 23 Macroeconomic 23 Economic Growth .. 25 Fiscal Strategy .. 27 Monetary Sector .. 30 Financial Sector DEVELOPMENT .. 32 External Sector Developments .. 32 PART II: strategic FOCUS, NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS AND 35 CHAPTER 4: strategic DIRECTION .. 35 Goal .. 35 DEVELOPMENT Objectives .. 35 Theory of change .. 36 Key DEVELOPMENT Results .. 36 DEVELOPMENT 37 DEVELOPMENT 39 NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT Programs .. 46 ndpiii Core Projects .. 47 PART III: DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMMES .. 50 CHAPTER 5: AGRO-INDUSTRIALIZATION.

3 50 Introduction .. 50 NATIONAL PLANNING AUTHORITY iiiNDPIII 2020/21 2024/25ii TABLE OF CONTENTS ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS .. VI FOREWORD .. XIV EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .. XVI PART I: BACKGROUND AND DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT .. 1 CHAPTER 1: BACKGROUND .. 1 Introduction .. 1 Achievements, Challenges and Lessons learnt from NDPI and NDPII .. 2 How ndpiii is different from NDPI and NDPII .. 11 Approach and formulation process of the ndpiii .. 13 Structure of the plan .. 13 CHAPTER 2: REGIONAL AND GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT .. 14 Introduction .. 14 Key DEVELOPMENT Opportunities .. 15 Threats .. 18 Regional and International DEVELOPMENT Obligations .. 21 CHAPTER 3: NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK .. 23 Macroeconomic 23 Economic Growth .. 25 Fiscal Strategy .. 27 Monetary Sector .. 30 Financial Sector DEVELOPMENT .. 32 External Sector Developments.

4 32 PART II: strategic FOCUS, NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS AND 35 CHAPTER 4: strategic DIRECTION .. 35 Goal .. 35 DEVELOPMENT Objectives .. 35 Theory of change .. 36 Key DEVELOPMENT Results .. 36 DEVELOPMENT 37 DEVELOPMENT 39 NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT Programs .. 46 ndpiii Core Projects .. 47 PART III: DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMMES .. 50 CHAPTER 5: AGRO-INDUSTRIALIZATION .. 50 Introduction .. 50 iii Situation Analysis .. 51 Objectives .. 57 CHAPTER 6: MINERAL DEVELOPMENT .. 67 Introduction .. 67 Situation Analysis .. 67 Objectives .. 70 CHAPTER 7: SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF PETROLEUM RESOURCES .. 77 Introduction .. 77 Situation 78 Objectives .. 79 CHAPTER 8: TOURISM DEVELOPMENT .. 84 Introduction .. 84 Situation Analysis .. 85 Objectives .. 90 CHAPTER 9: CLIMATE CHANGE, NATURAL RESOURCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND WATER MANAGEMENT.

5 95 Introduction .. 95 Situation Analysis .. 96 Objectives .. 99 CHAPTER 10: PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT .. 107 Introduction .. 107 Situation Analysis .. 107 Objectives .. 110 CHAPTER 11: MANUFACTURING .. 113 Introduction .. 113 Situational analysis .. 114 Objectives .. 117 CHAPTER 12: INTEGRATED TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE AND 120 Introduction .. 120 Situation Analysis .. 121 Objectives .. 130 CHAPTER 13: ENERGY DEVELOPMENT .. 135 Introduction .. 135 Analysis .. 136 Objectives .. 139 CHAPTER 14: DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION .. 143 THIRD NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT plan ( ndpiii ) 2020/21 2024/25iviv .. 143 Situation Analysis .. 143 Objectives .. 146 CHAPTER 15: SUSTAINABLE URBANIZATION AND HOUSING .. 150 Introduction .. 150 Situation Analysis .. 151 Objectives .. 152 CHAPTER 16: HUMAN CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT .. 157 Introduction.

6 157 Situation Analysis .. 158 Objectives .. 161 CHAPTER 17: INNOVATION, TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT AND TRANSFER .. 166 Introduction .. 166 Analysis .. 167 Objectives .. 168 Interventions .. 168 Implementation Reforms .. 170 CHAPTER 18: COMMUNITY MOBILIZATION AND MINDSET CHANGE .. 172 Introduction .. 172 Situation Analysis .. 173 Objectives .. 175 CHAPTER 19: GOVERNANCE AND SECURITY PROGRAMME .. 177 Introduction .. 177 Situation Analysis .. 178 Objectives .. 181 CHAPTER 20: PUBLIC SECTOR TRANSFORMATION .. 184 .. 184 Situation Analysis .. 185 Objectives .. 188 CHAPTER 21: REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT .. 191 Introduction .. 191 Situation Analysis .. 192 Objectives .. 193 CHAPTER 22: DEVELOPMENT plan IMPLEMENTATION .. 196 Introduction .. 196 Situation 196 .. 200 Interventions .. 200 NATIONAL PLANNING AUTHORITY vNDPIII 2020/21 2024/25iv.

7 143 Situation Analysis .. 143 Objectives .. 146 CHAPTER 15: SUSTAINABLE URBANIZATION AND HOUSING .. 150 Introduction .. 150 Situation Analysis .. 151 Objectives .. 152 CHAPTER 16: HUMAN CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT .. 157 Introduction .. 157 Situation Analysis .. 158 Objectives .. 161 CHAPTER 17: INNOVATION, TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT AND TRANSFER .. 166 Introduction .. 166 Analysis .. 167 Objectives .. 168 Interventions .. 168 Implementation Reforms .. 170 CHAPTER 18: COMMUNITY MOBILIZATION AND MINDSET CHANGE .. 172 Introduction .. 172 Situation Analysis .. 173 Objectives .. 175 CHAPTER 19: GOVERNANCE AND SECURITY PROGRAMME .. 177 Introduction .. 177 Situation Analysis .. 178 Objectives .. 181 CHAPTER 20: PUBLIC SECTOR TRANSFORMATION .. 184 .. 184 Situation Analysis .. 185 Objectives .. 188 CHAPTER 21: REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT .

8 191 Introduction .. 191 Situation Analysis .. 192 Objectives .. 193 CHAPTER 22: DEVELOPMENT plan IMPLEMENTATION .. 196 Introduction .. 196 Situation 196 .. 200 Interventions .. 200 v Implementation Reforms .. 202 PART IV: COSTING AND FINANCING, RISK MANAGEMENT, AND MONITORING AND EVALUATION .. 203 CHAPTER 23: COSTING AND FINANCING OF ndpiii PROGRAMS .. 203 The Overall Cost of the plan .. 203 Public Financing Sources .. 203 Public Debt Acquisition .. 206 Private Financing Sources .. 206 CHAPTER 24: RISK MANAGEMENT .. 209 Introduction .. 209 General Interventions for Risk Management .. 216 CHAPTER 25: MONITORING AND EVALUATION .. 217 Introduction .. 217 The ndpiii M&E Reforms .. 217 Roles and Responsibilities of Key Actors .. 219 Performance Reporting and Dissemination of Results .. 220 M&E Processes .. 222 Capacity Building.

9 223 ndpiii Results Framework .. 223 ANNEXES .. 225 Annex 1: Status of implementation of NDPII Core Projects FY2018/19 .. 225 Annex 2: Prioritized Minerals for NDP III and their uses .. 228 Annex 3: Mapping of the global, continental and regional DEVELOPMENT frameworks.. 232 THIRD NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT plan ( ndpiii ) 2020/21 2024/25vivi ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ACD Anti-Corruption Division AfCFTA African Continental Free Trade Area AfDB African DEVELOPMENT Bank AFROSAL African Organization of Supreme Audit Institutions AGI Agro-Industrialization ANC Antenatal Care ASSIP Accountability Sector strategic Investment plan BCCU Bugisu Coffee Cooperative Union BTVET Business, Technical and Vocational Training BOU Bank of Uganda CCD Climate Change department CDOs Community DEVELOPMENT Officers CMA Capital Markets Authority CME Community Mobilization and Empowerment CNDPF Comprehensive NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT Planning Framework COMESA Common Market for East and Southern Africa CNOOC China NATIONAL Oil Corporation CSOs Civil Society Organisations CTC Cut.

10 Tear and Curl DDA Dairy DEVELOPMENT Authority DDEG Discretionary DEVELOPMENT Equalisation Grant DFS Digital Financial Services DIT department of Industrial Training DLG District Local Government DPP Directorate of Public Prosecution DPs DEVELOPMENT Parnters NATIONAL PLANNING AUTHORITY viiNDPIII 2020/21 2024/25vi ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ACD Anti-Corruption Division AfCFTA African Continental Free Trade Area AfDB African DEVELOPMENT Bank AFROSAL African Organization of Supreme Audit Institutions AGI Agro-Industrialization ANC Antenatal Care ASSIP Accountability Sector strategic Investment plan BCCU Bugisu Coffee Cooperative Union BTVET Business, Technical and Vocational Training BOU Bank of Uganda CCD Climate Change department CDOs Community DEVELOPMENT Officers CMA Capital Markets Authority CME Community Mobilization and Empowerment CNDPF Comprehensive NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT Planning Framework COMESA Common Market for East and Southern Africa CNOOC China NATIONAL Oil Corporation CSOs Civil Society Organisations CTC Cut, Tear and Curl DDA Dairy DEVELOPMENT Authority DDEG Discretionary DEVELOPMENT Equalisation Grant DFS Digital Financial Services DIT department of Industrial Training DLG District Local Government DPP Directorate of Public Prosecution DPs DEVELOPMENT Parnters vii DRMS Domestic Revenue Mobilisation Strategy EAC East African Community EBA European Union Everything But Arms ECCE Early Childhood Care and Education ECD Early Childhood DEVELOPMENT ESIAs Environmental.