TRACTION DECARBONISATION NETWORK STRATEGY

1 OFFICIAL TRACTION DECARBONISATION NETWORK STRATEGY Interim Programme Business Case 31st July 2020 OFFICIAL 1. PREFACE Important Notice This document and its appendices have been produced by NETWORK Rail (NR) in response to a recommendation made by the Rail Industry DECARBONISATION Taskforce. The document summarises evidence and analysis carried out by NR in the period between 1st April 2019 and 29th May 2020. This analysis considers technological, operational and economic methodologies to identify the optimum application of decarbonised TRACTION technologies. The document ultimately identifies the optimum deployment of these TRACTION technologies (battery, electrification and hydrogen) on the unelectrified UK rail NETWORK . Note that reference to UK railway infrastructure and operations in this document relate to those contained within England, Scotland and Wales and this document does not consider rail operations in Northern Ireland.

2 The primary purpose of this document and its appendices is to provide DfT, Transport Scotland and Welsh Government with recommendations to inform decisions required to remove diesel trains from the NETWORK , achieve net-zero legislative targets, and identify the capital works programme required to achieve this. The document should be used to inform discrete project business cases being developed by project teams. The document provides the strategic rationale for rail TRACTION DECARBONISATION , as well as initial high-level economic and carbon abatement appraisals of options to underpin the recommendations made. The recommendations have been made using a balanced range of priorities and this work has broad cross industry support. This document should be used exclusively for the purposes of informing further development activity to be carried out by the rail industry. Any person who obtains access to this document and its appendices accepts and agrees that it has been produced by NR in accordance with the instructions provided in an agreement with a cross-industry programme board and was produced exclusively for the benefit and use of DfT, Transport Scotland, Welsh Government and others within the rail industry for the purposes set out above.

3 It should be noted that the recommendations within this report will change as further analysis is carried out, with an update to be provided in the TDNS Programme Business Case. Whilst cost and benefit assessments have been provided, the recommendations made as part of this document have not had any significant bottom-up development or deliverability assessment carried out and assume that the current general service provision of the NETWORK is maintained. This work has been endorsed by a number of industry partners and ratified by the TDNS Programme Board. DOCUMENT CONTROL Document Title TRACTION DECARBONISATION NETWORK STRATEGY Interim Programme Business Case Version and date C02 - Final Author System Operator Strategic Planning (FNPO) Security Level Official OFFICIAL 2. FOREWORD It is overwhelmingly accepted that the global climate is changing due to human impact. The scientific evidence is increasingly clear.

4 Every year, across the planet, weather records are broken and there is increased incidence of extreme weather events such as flooding and drought. There is an increasingly strong demand for urgent action by populations across the world, to protect the planet and future generations. The UK government set out in June 2019 its legal commitment to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. In respect of the railway, in 2018 the DfT challenged the rail industry remove all diesel-only trains from the NETWORK by 2040. The Scottish Government has set a target to decarbonise domestic passenger rail services by 2035. The railways in Great Britain play a critical role in supporting the economy and connectivity between communities across Britain. Rail is a relatively environmentally friendly mode of transport, but we need to do more, and we need to be part of the solution to the climate change challenge. Over the last year the rail industry has come together collaboratively and constructively, under the co-ordination of the System Operator, to assess the issues and options for removing all diesel trains from the rail NETWORK .

5 The result of this work is the TRACTION DECARBONISATION NETWORK STRATEGY and I am delighted that we can now set out the rail sector s response to the climate challenge by outlining how we can end the direct emissions of greenhouse gases from trains on the NETWORK . This document, and other supporting material being provided as part of the TRACTION DECARBONISATION NETWORK STRATEGY , will support the decisions on what needs to be achieved, and by when. The STRATEGY considers where overhead electrification, battery or hydrogen trains might be most effectively deployed. The work to end greenhouse gas emissions will require a commitment to a long-term, stable and efficient programme of works which will last at least the next thirty years. In order to meet the UK government s commitment to achieve net zero by 2050, and any interim emissions targets along the way, we need to set the wheels in motion. One of the key things we pledged when we started work on the STRATEGY was that we would be open and transparent and that the work would involve the industry as a full part of the process.

6 As a result, the work to produce the STRATEGY has been overseen by a Programme Board comprised of representatives from across the industry. We have also engaged with over two-hundred and fifty different organisations from both within the rail industry and outside of it, including a number of UK Government departments and other infrastructure managers from around Europe. Much more work will be needed beyond the STRATEGY , including the development of Regional delivery plans, but this document outlines the journey we must take together. We must now move forward with focus, determination and collective will to see rail rise to the climate change challenge and to maintain its position as a critical and environmentally friendly mode of transport. Paul McMahon Managing Director System Operator NETWORK Rail OFFICIAL 3. CONTENTS 5. Strategic Case .. 2 Strategic Case: Summary .. 2 Context .. 7 Case for Change.

7 24 Strategic Objectives .. 36 Strategic Benefits .. 43 DECARBONISATION TRACTION Options 59 Methodology .. 73 TRACTION DECARBONISATION Recommendations .. 76 Recommendations Scotland s Railway .. 82 Recommendations - Eastern 82 Recommendations - Southern 84 Recommendations Wales and Western .. 85 Recommendations North West and Central .. 85 TRACTION DECARBONISATION Programme .. 86 Strategic Case: Conclusion .. 87 6. Economic Case .. 90 Economic Case: Summary .. 90 91 Pathways Appraised .. 93 Economic Approach .. 97 Economic Outputs .. 105 Analysis of Outputs .. 110 Sensitivities .. 115 Economic case limitations .. 117 Economic Case: Conclusions .. 119 7. Commercial Case .. 121 Introduction .. 121 NETWORK Rail Capability .. 122 Supply Chain Capability .. 122 Delivery Structures and Procurement .. 125 Commercial Case: Conclusions 126 8. Financial Case.

8 128 Financial Case: Summary .. 128 Spend Profile .. 128 Financial Case: Conclusions .. 132 9. Management Case .. 134 Management Case: Summary 134 Programme of DECARBONISATION 134 Governance .. 139 Project Business Case Development .. 139 Further Synergies .. 141 Management Case: Conclusions 141 Appendix 1 NETWORK Rail Regions and Service Overview .. 143 Appendix 2 Rolling Stock 149 Appendix 3 DECARBONISATION Programme (Non- TRACTION ) .. 154 Appendix 4 Sub-Regional Context and Emissions Targets .. 156 OFFICIAL Appendix 5 Strategic and Economic Benefits .. 161 Appendix 6 TRACTION Types Technical Summary .. 164 Appendix 7 Embodied Carbon and Ethics .. 180 Appendix 8 TRACTION DECARBONISATION Recommendations Regional Breakdown .. 182 Appendix 9 Strategic Assumptions, Risks and Opportunities .. 240 Appendix 10 Economic Model Sources .. 246 Appendix 11 Acronyms and Glossary 247 OFFICIAL 4.

9 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Alongside the current global health crisis, climate change is one of the biggest issues for today s society, with the world facing a climate emergency. The UK Government in 2019 became one of the first nations to establish a legally binding net-zero emissions target. In response to this, all sectors of the UK economy are beginning to outline the infrastructure work and investment which is required to achieve this target. Although rail contributes less than 1% of the total UK annual greenhouse gas emissions it is in the unique position of currently being the only transport mode capable of moving both people and heavy goods using a zero-carbon solution. As a result, rail has a huge potential role to play in DECARBONISATION of the UK economy by providing reliable, green transport for goods and people. Railway TRACTION accounts for the greatest proportion of emissions within rail. With all TRACTION electricity for electric rail services matched by an equivalent amount of nuclear power, the emissions can be considered almost entirely from diesel train operation.

10 For rail to support the UK in achieving its net-zero legislative target, diesel operation will need to reduce and potentially cease. There are a number of options by which this can be achieved. TDNS is explicitly focused on appraising the identified technologies which can be used to achieve zero emissions. Previous work undertaken by the Rail Industry DECARBONISATION Taskforce (RIDT) has outlined that the viable technologies to achieve this are further electrification and the deployment of battery and hydrogen powered rolling stock. For areas of the NETWORK with significant freight flows or long-distance high-speed services, electrification is the only technology currently able to support these service types. Analysis suggests that electrification is also the best whole life cost solution for more intensively used areas of the NETWORK . Away from these areas of operation the deployment of battery and hydrogen rolling stock on both an interim and permanent basis will be critical in achieving DECARBONISATION of rail.