UK Carbon Footprint Analysis Report March 2020 - WWF

1 Carbon Footprint : EXPLORING THE UK S CONTRIBUTION TO CLIMATE CHANGE | March 2020 WWF is an independent conservation organisation, with over 5 million supporters and a global network active in over 100 countries. WWF's mission is to stop the degradation of the Earth's natural environment and to build a future in which humans live in harmony with nature, by conserving the world's biological diversity, ensuring that the use of renewable natural resources is sustainable, and promoting the reduction of pollution and wasteful consumption. WWF-UKThe Living Planet Centre Rufford House, Brewery Rd, Woking GU21 4LL, United KingdomSustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds: Dr Anne Owen, Dr Diana Ivanova, Prof John BarrettWWF: Stephen Cornelius, Angela Francis, Shirley Matheson, Gareth Redmond-King, Lucy YoungDesign: Jo Curnow / cover photo: Germund Sellgren / WWF-SwedenBack cover photo: NicoElNino / ShutterstockCopyright Credit Global Warming Images / WWFIII EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Copyright Credit Global Warming Images / WWFCARBON Footprint .

2 EXPLORING THE UK S CONTRIBUTION TO CLIMATE CHANGE | March 2020In this Report we examine the UK greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions between 1990 and 2016 using a new 15 trade-region global multi-regional input output (MRIO) model database ( WWF-UKMRIO ) developed by researchers from the University of Leeds. We examine the territorial-, production- and consumption-based GHG emissions in the UK and their development between 1990 and 2016. This Report aims to contribute to a body of literature exploring the trade-linked UK Carbon Your Carbon Footprint is the total amount of greenhouse gas released in the production and consumption of all the goods and services you use, wherever in the world they are produced.

3 The UK Carbon Footprint sums up the consumption demands of everyone living in the National GHG inventories monitor territorial emissions , considering emission embedded in imports is outside this Consumption-based accounting of GHG emissions reassigns global emissions to the point of consumption rather than production. The consumption-based GHG account for the UK is the sum of the emissions emitted to meet final demand consumption by UK households and new WWF model outputs compare well with those from the four trade-region MIRO database used to produce the 1997-2016 Carbon Footprint for the UK Government2.

4 As our dataset runs from 1990 to 2016, comparisons between the UK Carbon Footprint and the reported UK territorial emissions decline can now be made. The finer disaggregation of world regions in the WWF-UKMIRO model allows for new insights into the origin of the UK s Carbon Footprint . MAIN RESULTS Between 1990 and 2016 the UK reported a 41% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions within the UK s national While this measures progress towards the UK s domestic and international climate targets it does not reflect the full contribution of UK-based consumption to climate 1990 and 2016 the UK s consumption-based emissions ( Carbon Footprint ) declined by 15%.

5 4 The marked difference to the territorial figure is due to the large share of emissions relating to goods and services imported from overseas. The difference, therefore, implies that while the UK has made progress to reduce its contribution to climate change, it is not as substantial as claimed (fig ES1).Figure ES1: UK consumption, and production emissions (in million tonnes of Carbon dioxide equivalent) calculated using the WWF-UKMRIO database and UK territorial emissions 1990-2016 VIn 2016, 54% of the UK s Carbon Footprint was domestically sourced with the remaining 46% coming from emissions released overseas to satisfy UK consumption.

6 The overseas proportion of the UK s Carbon Footprint increased substantially from just 14% in 1990 thus reducing the scope of UK climate policy to affect emissions associated with consumption drives emissions across the globe (fig ES2). The biggest six regions/countries with their percentage of the overall UK Carbon Footprint are: the EU ( ), China ( ), Africa ( )5, the Middle East ( ), the USA ( ), and Russia ( ). Imported emissions are mostly associated with manufactured goods such as processed food, clothes and The Africa figure is a summation of the WWF-UKMRIO model regions South Africa and Rest of Africa.

7 6 The six sectors with identifier in the underlying database are: (107) Direct home heating, (108) Direct transport fuel, (52) Electricity, transmission and distribution, (58) Construction, (1) Products of agriculture, hunting and related services, and (65) Air transport services. Figure ES2: UK emissions from territorial, production and consumption in 2016. Measured in MtCO e. Numbers may not add due to rounding to nearest million tonnes. In 2016, six sectors contributed to almost half (46%) of the UK s Carbon Footprint these emissions are a combination of those arising domestically and from emissions released overseas to satisfy UK consumption.

8 The biggest six sectors and their contribution to the UK Carbon Footprint are: heating homes ( ), car fuel ( ), electricity (8%), construction ( ), agriculture ( ) and air travel ( )6. The largest three of these are associated with sectors which are expected to fully decarbonise domestically by 2050 under the UK Committee on Climate Change s pathway to decarbonisation. A greater understanding of impacts of UK decarbonisation on these and other sectors will better inform both national and international sustainability travel saw the greatest percentage increase in Carbon Footprint between 1990 and 2016 up 245%, from 19 to 47 million tonnes of Carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO e).

9 At present these Carbon dioxide emissions are monitored by airlines as part of a UN aviation scheme which aims to ensure any rise in aviation is offset elsewhere. International aviation does not form part of UK net-zero targets under the Climate Change Act. This means the UK government has not formally recognised that we need to take responsibility for our aviation Footprint : EXPLORING THE UK S CONTRIBUTION TO CLIMATE CHANGE | March 2020 The Carbon Footprint from construction increased from 49 to 54 MtCO e between 1990 and 2016. Over that period emissions originating in the UK decreased from 36 MtCO e (74% of the total) to 28 MtCO e (52%) suggesting a trend of significant and increasing offshoring of emissions .

10 IMPLICATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS OFFSHORINGThe UK has expressed a commitment to end its contribution to climate change through the territorial net-zero emissions target in the Climate Change Act. However, the UK has been deindustrialising and increasing the proportion of food it imports which have offshored the production and associated emissions for many goods we rely new work unpacks the dynamics of such offshoring and shows that nearly half of the UK s Carbon Footprint is from emissions released overseas and so are not covered by national emission reporting and are not targeted by domestic climate understanding the implications of UK decarbonisation to offshoring production and associated emissions will help identify additional policies and partnerships the Government