USDA Agricultural Projections to 2030

1 United States department of agriculture Office of the Chief Economist World Agricultural Outlook Board Long-Term Projections Report OCE-2021-1 February 2021 usda Agricultural Projections to 2030 Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee World Agricultural Outlook Board, Chair Economic Research Service Farm Production and Conservation Business Center Foreign Agricultural Service Agricultural Marketing Service Office of the Chief Economist Office of Budget and Program Analysis Risk Management Agency Natural Resources Conservation Service National Institute of Food and agriculture usda Long-Term Projections usda Long-Term Projections , February 2021 i usda Agricultural Projections to 2030.

2 Office of the Chief Economist, World Agricultural Outlook Board, department of agriculture . Prepared by the Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee. Long-term Projections Report OCE-2021-1, 103 pp. Abstract This report provides Projections for the Agricultural sector to 2030. Projections cover Agricultural commodities, Agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income. The Projections are based on specific assumptions, including a consensus macroeconomic scenario, existing policy, and current international agreements. The agriculture Improvement Act of 2018 is assumed to remain in effect through the projection period. The Projections are one representative scenario for the Agricultural sector and reflect a composite of model results and judgment-based analyses.

3 The Projections in this report were prepared using data through the October 2020 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, except where noted otherwise. Keywords: Projections , crops, livestock, biofuel, ethanol, biodiesel, dollar, crude oil, trade, farm income, department of agriculture , usda . Acknowledgments and Contacts The report coordinators, on behalf of the Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee, thank the many analysts in different agencies of usda for their contributions to the long-term Projections analysis and to the preparation and review of this report. Without their help, this report would not be possible. Questions regarding these Projections may be directed to.

4 Erik Dohlman, Economic Research Service, Market and Trade Economics Division James Hansen, Economic Research Service, Market and Trade Economics Division David Boussios, Office of the Chief Economist, World Agricultural Outlook Board In accordance with Federal civil rights law and department of agriculture ( usda ) civil rights regulations and policies, the usda , its Agencies, offices, and employees, and institutions participating in or administering usda programs are prohibited from discriminating based on race, color, national origin, religion, sex, gender identity (including gender expression), sexual orientation, disability, age, marital status, family/parental status, income derived from a public assistance program, political beliefs, or reprisal or retaliation for prior civil rights activity, in any program or activity conducted or funded by usda (not all bases apply to all programs).

5 Remedies and complaint filing deadlines vary by program or incident. Persons with disabilities who require alternative means of communication for program information ( , Braille, large print, audiotape, American Sign Language, etc.) should contact the responsible Agency or usda 's TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice and TTY) or contact usda through the Federal Relay Service at (800) 877-8339. Additionally, program information may be made available in languages other than English. To file a program discrimination complaint, complete the usda Program Discrimination Complaint Form, AD-3027, found online at How to File a Program Discrimination Complaint and at any usda office or write a letter addressed to usda and provide in the letter all of the information requested in the form.

6 To request a copy of the complaint form, call (866) 632-9992. Submit your completed form or letter to usda by: (1) mail: department of agriculture , Office of the Assistant Secretary for Civil Rights, 1400 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, 20250-9410; (2) fax: (202) 690-7442; or (3) email: usda is an equal opportunity provider, employer, and lender. usda Long-Term Projections , February 2021 ii usda Long-Term Projections : Background usda s long-term Agricultural Projections presented in this report are a departmental consensus on a conditional long-run scenario for the Agricultural sector. These Projections provide a starting point for discussion of alternative outcomes for the sector. The Projections , colloquially referred to as the baseline Projections , were prepared using data available through the October 2020 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, except where noted.

7 The agriculture Improvement Act of 2018 is assumed to remain in effect through the projection period. The scenario presented in this report is not a usda forecast about the future. Instead, it is a conditional, long-run scenario about what would be expected under the continuation of current farm legislation and other specific assumptions. Critical long-term assumptions are made for and international macroeconomic conditions, and foreign Agricultural and trade policies, and growth rates of Agricultural productivity in the United States and abroad. The report assumes that there are no domestic or external shocks during the projection period that would affect global Agricultural supply and demand. Changes in any of these assumptions can significantly affect the Projections , and actual conditions that emerge will alter the outcomes.

8 The Projections only include policies in place or are already expected to be implemented as of October 2020. Recent trade deals or negotiations such as the Phase One deal with China, the United States-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) agreement, and a free trade agreement were considered for these Projections . The macroeconomic assumptions were completed in August 2020. Support payment programs to assist producers directly affected by the coronavirus pandemic in 2020 announced after the Projections was developed, such as those under the Consolidated Appropriations Act 2021, are not included in the calculations here. The Projections analysis was conducted by interagency committees in usda and reflect a composite of model results and judgment-based analyses.

9 The Economic Research Service had the lead role in preparing the departmental report. The Projections and the report were reviewed and cleared by the Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee, chaired by the World Agricultural Outlook Board. usda participants in the Projections analysis and review include the World Agricultural Outlook Board, the Economic Research Service, the Farm Production and Conservation Business Center, the Foreign Agricultural Service, the Agricultural Marketing Service, the Office of the Chief Economist, the Office of Budget and Program Analysis, the Risk Management Agency, the Natural Resources Conservation Service, and the National Institute of Food and agriculture . usda Long-Term Projections , February 2021 iii Table Contents Abstract.

10 I Acknowledgments and Contacts .. i usda Long-Term Projections : Background .. ii List of Figures .. iii List of Tables .. iv Introduction and Projections Overview .. 1 General Policy Assumptions .. 2 Biofuel Assumptions .. 3 Macroeconomic Assumptions .. 5 Crops, Livestock, and Farm Income Projections .. 18 Crops .. 18 Livestock .. 39 Breakout Box: Agricultural Trade Projections .. 48 Farm Income .. 51 Agricultural Trade .. 56 World trade overview .. 56 International Projection Highlights .. 57 Breakout Box: China s Imports Surged in 2020 .. 59 Breakout Box: Effects of COVID-19 on Global Agricultural Trade .. 60 List of Figures Figure 1. Real gross domestic product growth by global region, 2000-30.