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WORLD AGRICULTURE TOWARDS 2030/2050

WORLD AGRICULTURE TOWARDS 2030/2050 The 2012 Revision Nikos Alexandratos and Jelle Bruinsma Global Perspective Studies team ESA working Paper No. 12-03 June 2012 Agricultural Development Economics Division Food and AGRICULTURE Organization of the United Nations i WORLD AGRICULTURE TOWARDS 2030/2050 : the 2012 revision Nikos Alexandratos and Jelle Bruinsma Global Perspective Studies team FAO Agricultural Development Economics Division Abstract This paper is a re-make of Chapters 1-3 of the Interim Report WORLD AGRICULTURE : TOWARDS 2030/2050 (FAO, 2006). In addition, this new paper includes a Chapter 4 on production factors (land, water, yields, fertilizers). Revised and more recent data have been used as basis for the new projections, as follows: (a) updated historical data from the Food Balance Sheets 1961-2007 as of June 2010; (b) undernourishment estimates from The State of Food Insecurity in the WORLD 2010 (SOFI) and related new parameters (CVs, minimum daily energy requirements) are used in the projections; (c) new population data and projections from the UN WORLD Population Prospects - Revision of 2008; (d) new GDP data and projections from the WORLD Bank; (e) a new base year of 2005/2007 (the previous edition used the base year 1999/2001); (f) updated estimates of land resources from the new evaluation of the Global Agro-ecologica

WORLD AGRICULTURE TOWARDS 2030/2050. The 2012 Revision . Nikos Alexandratos and Jelle Bruinsma. Global Perspective Studies Team . ESA Working Paper No. 12-03

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Transcription of WORLD AGRICULTURE TOWARDS 2030/2050

1 WORLD AGRICULTURE TOWARDS 2030/2050 The 2012 Revision Nikos Alexandratos and Jelle Bruinsma Global Perspective Studies team ESA working Paper No. 12-03 June 2012 Agricultural Development Economics Division Food and AGRICULTURE Organization of the United Nations i WORLD AGRICULTURE TOWARDS 2030/2050 : the 2012 revision Nikos Alexandratos and Jelle Bruinsma Global Perspective Studies team FAO Agricultural Development Economics Division Abstract This paper is a re-make of Chapters 1-3 of the Interim Report WORLD AGRICULTURE : TOWARDS 2030/2050 (FAO, 2006). In addition, this new paper includes a Chapter 4 on production factors (land, water, yields, fertilizers). Revised and more recent data have been used as basis for the new projections, as follows: (a) updated historical data from the Food Balance Sheets 1961-2007 as of June 2010; (b) undernourishment estimates from The State of Food Insecurity in the WORLD 2010 (SOFI) and related new parameters (CVs, minimum daily energy requirements) are used in the projections; (c) new population data and projections from the UN WORLD Population Prospects - Revision of 2008; (d) new GDP data and projections from the WORLD Bank; (e) a new base year of 2005/2007 (the previous edition used the base year 1999/2001); (f) updated estimates of land resources from the new evaluation of the Global Agro-ecological Zones (GAEZ) study of FAO and IIASA.

2 Estimates of land under forest and in protected areas from the GAEZ are taken into account and excluded from the estimates of land areas suitable for crop production into which AGRICULTURE could expand in the future; (g) updated estimates of existing irrigation, renewable water resources and potentials for irrigation expansion; and (h) changes in the text as required by the new historical data and projections. Like the interim report, this re-make does not include projections for the Fisheries and Forestry sectors. Calories from fish are, however, included, in the food consumption projections, along with those from other commodities ( spices) not analysed individually. The projections presented reflect the magnitudes and trajectories we estimate the major food and AGRICULTURE variables may assume in the future; they are not meant to reflect how these variables may be required to evolve in the future in order to achieve some normative objective, ensure food security for all, eliminate undernourishment or reduce it to any given desired level, or avoid food overconsumption leading to obesity and related Non-Communicable Diseases.

3 Keywords: agricultural outlook, food demand, production growth, nutrition, crop production, global outlook, land use, irrigation, crop yields. JEL classification: FO1, O13, Q11, Q17, Q18, Q21, Q24, Q25 ii Acknowledgements This paper was prepared by Nikos Alexandratos (Chapters 1, 2 and 3 and the related quantifications) and Jelle Bruinsma (Chapter 4) who also performed the underlying calculations except for the calculation of water requirements in irrigation which was performed by Jippe Hoogeveen. Comments by Kostas Stamoulis, Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, Piero Conforti, Seth Meyer and the provision of data and projections by the team that prepared the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook are gratefully acknowledged, as are comments on Chapter 4 by G nther Fischer, Harrij van Velthuizen and Freddy Nachtergaele (on GAEZ), Jean-Marc Faur s, Jacob Burke and Jippe Hoogeveen (on irrigation), Simon Mack (on livestock) and Jan Poulisse (on fertilizers).

4 The authors alone are responsible for any remaining errors. The opinions expressed in this paper are the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of FAO. Citation Alexandratos, N. and J. Bruinsma. 2012. WORLD AGRICULTURE TOWARDS 2030/2050 : the 2012 revision. ESA working paper No. 12-03. Rome, FAO. The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and AGRICULTURE Organization of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. In the presentation of statistical material, countries are, where appropriate, aggregated in the following main economic groupings: Developed countries and Developing countries , as listed in the Appendix. The designation developed and developing economies is intended for statistical convenience and does not necessarily express a judgement about the stage of development reached by a particular country.

5 Iii CONTENTS CHAPTER 1 OVERVIEW .. 1 CHAPTER 2 PROSPECTS FOR FOOD AND NUTRITION .. 23 The broad picture: historical developments and present situation .. 23 Progress made in raising food consumption per person .. 23 The incidence of undernourishment past and present .. 25 The outlook for food and nutrition in the projections .. 29 Demographics .. 29 Overall economy .. 34 Food security outcomes .. 36 Structural changes in the commodity composition of food consumption .. 41 Concluding remarks .. 50 ANNEX India s Food Demand Projections in a Global Context .. 51 CHAPTER 3 PROSPECTS FOR AGRICULTURE AND MAJOR COMMODITY GROUPS .. 59 Aggregate AGRICULTURE : historical trends and prospects .. 59 Cereals .. 65 Livestock commodities .. 71 Past and present .. 71 Prospects for the livestock 75 Oilcrops, vegetable oils and products .. 80 Past and present .. 80 Prospects for the oilcrops sector .. 84 Roots, tubers and plantains.

6 85 Past and present .. 85 Roots, tubers and plantains in the 87 Sugar .. 87 ANNEX Biofuels and Climate Change in the Projections .. 92 CHAPTER 4 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AND NATURAL RESOURCE USE .. 94 Production growth in AGRICULTURE .. 94 Crop production .. 97 Sources of growth .. 97 Land with crop production potential .. 101 Expansion of land in crop production .. 106 Expansion of irrigated land .. 112 Irrigation water requirements and pressure on water resources .. 116 Crop yield growth .. 119 Fertilizer consumption .. 126 Livestock production .. 131 APPENDIX 1 Countries and Commodities Included in the 134 iv APPENDIX 2 Summary Note on 137 REFERENCES .. 140 Boxes Box Measuring the increase in aggregate agricultural production (all crop and livestock products) .. 7 Box Measuring the incidence of undernourishment: the key role of the estimates of food available for direct human consumption .. 27 Box Countries with high population growth to 2050 and limited agricultural resources: an untenable combination?

7 31 Box 2. 3 Population growth and global food demand .. 32 Box Projecting land use and yield growth .. 100 Box Agro-ecological zone (AEZ) methodology .. 103 Box 4. 3 Assumed levels of inputs and management .. 103 Tables Table Key Variables Beyond 2050 .. 20 Table Per capita food consumption (kcal/person/day) .. 23 Table Incidence of undernourishment, developing countries .. 26 Table Population data and projections .. 30 Table GDP assumptions and implied convergence indicators .. 36 Table Changes in the commodity composition of food by major country groups .. 44 Table Changes in the commodity composition of food, developing regions .. 48 Table Growth Rates of Demand and Production, percent .. 64 Table Cereal balances, WORLD and major country groups .. 67 Table Net trade balances, wheat, rice, coarse grains, developing countries by region (million tonnes) .. 71 Table Meat: aggregate production and demand .. 74 Table Milk and Dairy Products (liquid milk equivalent).

8 75 Table Major oilcrops, WORLD production .. 82 Table Net trade balances for oilseeds, oils and products (in oil equivalent) .. 83 Table WORLD use of crops for biofuels .. 92 Table Increases in population, calorie supply and agricultural production .. 94 Table Agricultural production growth rates (percent ) .. 95 Table Annual crop production growth (percent ) .. 97 Table Sources of growth in crop production (percent) .. 98 Table Sources of growth for major cereals in developing countries .. 99 Table Land with rain-fed crop production potential ( WORLD ; million ha) .. 104 Table Land with rain-fed crop production potential by region (million ha) .. 106 Table Total arable land in use: data and projections .. 109 Table Arable land in use, cropping intensities and harvested land .. 111 Table Area equipped for irrigation .. 113 Table Annual renewable water resources and irrigation water 118 Table Area and yields for major crops in the WORLD .

9 121 v Table Cereal yields, rainfed and irrigated .. 122 Table Top and bottom cereal yields in developing countries .. 124 Table Fertilizer consumption: historical and projected .. 128 Table Fertilizer consumption by major crops .. 128 Table Annual livestock production growth (percent ) .. 131 Table WORLD livestock production by livestock sector .. 131 Table Meat production: number of animals and carcass weight .. 133 Figures Figure Per capita food consumption (kcal/person/day) .. 4 Figure Food consumption per capita, major commodities (kg/person/year) .. 5 Figure Prevalence of undernourishment, developing countries .. 6 Figure WORLD production and use, major products (million tonnes) .. 8 Figure Developing countries: net cereals trade (million tonnes) .. 9 Figure WORLD land availability with potential for rainfed crops (million ha) .. 11 Figure Land in use at present, increase to 2050 and remaining balance in 2050 .. 12 Figure Irrigated area, 2005/2007 and 2050 (million ha).

10 14 Figure WORLD cereals, average yield and harvested area .. 15 Figure Coarse grain yield, sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America .. 16 Figure kcal/person/day, by region and country groups, 1990-2007 .. 24 Figure Developing countries: population living in countries with given kcal/ person/day .. 25 Figure WORLD population: 1950-2010 and projections (three variants) .. 29 Figure Annual population increments and growth rates (medium variant) .. 30 Figure Comparison of population data and 2050 projections of three UN assessments .. 33 Figure Medium population projection to 2100: WORLD total, sub-Saharan Africa and Rest-of- WORLD .. 34 Figure 20 countries with undernourishment over 30% in 2005/2007, data and projections .. 39 Figure Sub-Saharan Africa: GDP per capita (PPP 2005$), food per capita and poverty .. 40 Figure Developing countries: population (million) in countries with x% undernourished .. 41 Figure Cereals consumption (direct food only) in kg/person/year.


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