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Basic Principles of Statistical Inference

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Basic Principles of Statistical InferenceKosuke ImaiDepartment of PoliticsPrinceton UniversityPOL572 Quantitative Analysis IISpring 2016Kosuke Imai (Princeton) Basic PrinciplesPOL572Spring 20161 / 66What is Statistics?Relatively new disciplineScientific revolution in the 20th centuryData and computing revolutions in the 21st centuryThe world is stochastic rather than deterministicProbability theory used to model stochastic eventsStatistical Inference : Learning about what we do not observe(parameters) using what we observe ( data )Without statistics: wild guessWith statistics: principled guess1assumptions2formal properties3measure of uncertaintyKosuke Imai (Princeton) Basic PrinciplesPOL572Spring 20162 / 66Three Modes of Statistical Inference1Descriptive Inference : summarizing and exploring dataInferring ideal points from rollcall votesInferring topics from texts and speechesInferring social networks from surveys2Predictive Inference .

Data and computing revolutions in the 21st century The world is stochastic rather than deterministic Probability theory used to model stochastic events Statistical inference: Learning about what we do not observe (parameters) using what we observe (data) Without statistics:wildguess With statistics: principled guess 1 assumptions 2 formal ...

  Data, Statistical, Inference, Statistical inference, Principled

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