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Basic Principles of Statistical Inference

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Basic Principles of Statistical InferenceKosuke ImaiDepartment of PoliticsPrinceton UniversityPOL572 Quantitative Analysis IISpring 2016Kosuke Imai (Princeton) Basic PrinciplesPOL572Spring 20161 / 66What is Statistics?Relatively new disciplineScientific revolution in the 20th centuryData and computing revolutions in the 21st centuryThe world is stochastic rather than deterministicProbability theory used to model stochastic eventsStatistical Inference : Learning about what we do not observe(parameters) using what we observe (data)Without statistics: wild guessWith statistics:principled guess1assumptions2formal properties3measure of uncertaintyKosuke Imai (Princeton) Basic PrinciplesPOL572Spring 20162 / 66Three Modes of Statistical Inference1Descriptive Inference .

Statistics for Social Scientists Quantitative social science research: 1 Find a substantive question 2 Construct theory and hypothesis 3 Design an empirical study and collect data 4 Use statistics to analyze data and test hypothesis 5 Report the results No study in the social sciences is perfect Use best available methods and data, but be aware of limitations

  Statistical, Inference, Statistical inference

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