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Basic Principles of Statistical Inference

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Basic Principles of Statistical InferenceKosuke ImaiDepartment of PoliticsPrinceton UniversityPOL572 Quantitative Analysis IISpring 2016Kosuke Imai (Princeton) Basic PrinciplesPOL572Spring 20161 / 66What is Statistics?Relatively new disciplineScientific revolution in the 20th centuryData and computing revolutions in the 21st centuryThe world is stochastic rather than deterministicProbability theory used to model stochastic eventsStatistical Inference : Learning about what we do not observe(parameters) using what we observe (data)Without statistics: wild guessWith statistics.

Use best available methods and data, but be aware of limitations ... Probability sampling: e.g., stratified, cluster, systematic sampling Non-probability sampling: e.g., quota, volunteer, snowball sampling ... choice of the largest comparison (most attractive group versus the average of the four least attractive groups), which ...

  Comparison, Methods, Statistical, Inference, Sampling, Systematic, Cluster, Statistical inference, Systematic sampling

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