Internal validation of predictive models: Efficiency …

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Journal of Clinical Epidemiology 54 (2001) 774 781 0895-4356/01/$ see front matter 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights : S0895-4356(01)00341-9 Internal validation of predictive models: Efficiency of some procedures for logistic regression analysis Ewout W. Steyerberg a, *, Frank E. Harrell Jr b , Gerard J. J. M. Borsboom a , M. J. C. (Ren ) Eijkemans a , Yvonne Vergouwe a , J. Dik F. Habbema a a Center for Clinical Decision Sciences, Ee 2091, Department of Public Health, Erasmus University, Box 1738, 3000 DR, Rotterdam, The Netherlands b Division of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Department of Health Evaluation Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville VA, USA Received 28 June 2000; received in revised form 26 October 2000; accepted 20 December 2000 Abstract The performance of a predictive model is overestimated when simply determined on the sample of subjects that was used to constructthe model .

776 E.W. Steyerberg et al. / Journal of Clinical Epidemiology 54 (2001) 774–781 2.4. Internal validation We evaluated several internal validation procedures that

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