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20 STATISTICAL LEARNING METHODS

20 STATISTICAL LEARNING . METHODS . In which we view LEARNING as a form of uncertain reasoning from observations. Part V pointed out the prevalence of uncertainty in real environments. Agents can handle uncertainty by using the METHODS of probability and decision theory, but first they must learn their probabilistic theories of the world from experience. This chapter explains how they can do that. We will see how to formulate the LEARNING task itself as a process of probabilistic inference (Section ). We will see that a Bayesian view of LEARNING is extremely powerful, providing general solutions to the problems of noise, overfitting, and optimal prediction.

lime candies are unwrapped, h4 is most likely; after 3 or more, h5 (the dreaded all-lime bag) is the most likely. After 10 in a row, we are fairly certain of our fate. Figure 20.1(b) shows the predicted probability that the next candy is lime, based on Equation (20.2). As we would expect, it increases monotonically toward 1.

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  Statistical, Learning, After, Predicted, Statistical learning

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