Transcription of 2020 Texas Election Data Analysis
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2020 Texas Election Data Analysis
2020 data Retrospective | 1 2020 texas election data analysis By Hudson Cavanagh (email or for more information) Executive Summary2 How Do We Know What Happened?3 What Happened?5 What went well5 What went poorly6 Turnout7 Republicans had Higher Turnout7 Why did Republicans Win Turnout?9 In-Person Canvassing10 Canvassing Targets12 Limitations of Phone Numbers12 Conclusions13 How did turnout look across Demographics?14 These groups aren t monolithic14 Black Turnout16 Latino Turnout17 Rio Grande Valley18 Latino Support Conclusions21 Rural Texas22 Voter Registration22 There are more Democrats to Register than Republicans25 Our Goal: Winning Sustainably26 One possible path to Blue26 Summary of Takeaways27 Acknowledgements28 Paid for by the Texas Democratic Party. Not authorized by any candidate or candidate s committee. 2020 data Retrospective | 2 Executive Summary We were beaten in the turnout battle across the state.
2020 Data Retrospective | 4 Both our model and the Biden for President model performed very well. Whereas the Biden model attempted to predict Biden voters, ours focused on partisanship; we believe this allowed their model to predict presidential vote share slightly better due to split-ticket Biden voters. Our predictions were largely accurate.
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