Transcription of An Introduction to Sensitivity Analysis
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An Introduction to Sensitivity Analysis
D-4526-2 41 An Introduction to Sensitivity Analysis Prepared for the MIT System Dynamics in Education Project Under the Supervision of Dr. Jay W. Forrester by Lucia Breierova Mark Choudhari September 6, 1996 Vensim Examples added October 2001 Copyright 2001 by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Permission granted to distribute for non-commercial educational purposes 47 D-4526-2 43 Table of Contents 1. ABSTRACT 46 2. Introduction 3. EXPLORATORY EXERCISES EXPLORATION 1: LEMONADE STAND 48 EXERCISE 51 DEBRIEF 55 EXPLORATION 2: EPIDEMICS 55 EXERCISE 57 DEBRIEF 62 4. INDEPENDENT EXPLORATION: COFFEEHOUSE 62 CHOOSING PARAMETERS FOR Sensitivity Analysis 65 PERFORMING Sensitivity TESTS 65 5.
analysis is a useful tool in model building as well as in model evaluation. Sensitivity analysis helps to build confidence in the model by studying the uncertainties that are often associated with parameters in models. Many parameters in system dynamics models represent quantities that are very difficult, or even impossible to
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