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Basic Principles of Statistical Inference

Basic Principles of Statistical InferenceKosuke ImaiDepartment of PoliticsPrinceton UniversityPOL572 Quantitative Analysis IISpring 2016 Kosuke Imai (Princeton) Basic PrinciplesPOL572 Spring 20161 / 66 What is Statistics?Relatively new disciplineScientific revolution in the 20th centuryData and computing revolutions in the 21st centuryThe world is stochastic rather than deterministicProbability theory used to model stochastic eventsStatistical Inference : Learning about what we do not observe(parameters) using what we observe (data)Without statistics: wild guessWith statistics.

Probability sampling: e.g., stratified, cluster, systematic sampling Non-probability sampling: e.g., quota, volunteer, snowball sampling ... Sampling weights = inverse of sampling probability ... choice of the largest comparison (most attractive group versus the average of the four least attractive groups), which ...

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imai.fas.harvard.edu

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imai.fas.harvard.edu

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imai.fas.harvard.edu

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imai.fas.harvard.edu

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imai.fas.harvard.edu

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